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Many people in South Asia are assessing the results of the U.S. midterm elections.
The opposition¹ Republicans have taken control of the U.S. House of Representatives from President Barack Obama's Democratic Party and analysts³ in Pakistan say that could have an impact on some of America's international policies. "I think Pakistan will have to understand that there has been a change in the political landscape of the United States," said Retired⁴ Pakistani Army Lieutenant⁵ General Talat Masood. He points out the U.S. election results were, in part, fueled by voter anger because of the poor economy and U.S. government spending.
Pakistan is one of the major beneficiaries of U.S. foreign aid and receives billions of dollars in economic and military assistance.
The increase in the number of Republicans in Congress is likely to have an impact on bilateral⁶ relations, said Masood.
"I think there will be a greater scrutiny⁷ as far as assistance is concerned and greater conditionality⁸ imposed on Pakistan," he said. "And I think Pakistan would be expected now to do even a lot more and perhaps there will be even greater pressure on Pakistan."Terrorism The United States and Pakistan have been partners in the war against terror, but do not always agree on the best strategy to defeat the Taliban and al-Qaida backed insurgents⁹.
The Pakistani Army has resisted any immediate¹⁰ military action against militants¹¹ in the region of North Waziristan along the border with Afghanistan, which has been a safe haven¹² U.S. military leaders have called the "epicenter of terrorism."Now an Islamabad-based defense¹³ analyst², Talat Masood believes Republicans will bring more demands on the Pakistani Army he says is already stretched too thin. "Pakistan's sanctuaries¹⁴ in North Waziristan and other areas, perhaps there will be greater pressure that Pakistan launch and clear those sanctuaries," Masood said.
AfghanistanWhile the Republicans have generally supported President Obama's strategy for fighting the war in Afghanistan, many have opposed the president's July 2011 deadline for beginning a U.S. troop withdrawal¹⁵. They say setting such a date sends the wrong message about the U.S. commitment to Afghanistan and could embolden¹⁶ the insurgents to wait out the American military's departure.
Security Studies Professor Riffat Hussain of Quiad-e-Azam University in Islamabad says the Republican victory in the U.S. elections could force President Obama to adjust his strategy for the Afghan war.
"So I think [U.S. and NATO commander] General [David] Petraeus and the hardliners who think that the United States needs more time to make things work in Afghanistan, I think their hands will be strengthened," Hussain said. "So, I think President Obama may have to shift the withdrawal date and postpone¹⁷ it at least by six months to a year."Obama's Asia trip One thing the Pakistanis will be watching very closely is President Obama's overseas trip later this week to its arch-rival and nuclear-armed neighbor India.
Professor Hussain says the key issue for Islamabad is the disputed Himalayan region of Kashmir, the source of two wars between India and Pakistan.
"It depends how this visit gets played out by the Indian media, and particularly on the very sensitive issue of Kashmir," he explained. "What is going to be the policy stance or the verbal utterances¹⁸ by President Obama?" President Obama has promised to visit Pakistan sometime next year.