2007年VOA标准英语-US Establishes Flu Pandemic Severity Rating

The U.S. government has a introduced a system to rate the severity of a potential influenza¹ pandemic. Public health officials say it will help states and communities determine the appropriate level of preparation if the H5N1 bird flu or a similar virus spreads through the population. VOA's David McAlary reports.

Julie Gerberding (31 Jan 2007 photo)

"Everyone knows what a category one hurricane is," said Julie Gerberding. "Everyone understands what a category four or five hurricane is. We have embedded³ in our minds some understanding of the difference in severity of a different level of planning that might be required and the different harm that could come from these kinds of different scenarios⁴."

In a pandemic of the lowest severity, category one, national health authorities would recommend minimal⁵ protection measures such as washing hands, covering mouths while coughing and sneezing, and isolating⁶ sick patients. U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Michael Leavitt says a category five pandemic like the one in 1918 that killed many millions worldwide would elicit⁷ the severest protections, such as closing schools, canceling public meetings and isolating people who have come in contact with a flu patient.

"This document helps communities understand the appropriate steps that they need to follow depending on the severity of the pandemic," said Michael Leavitt. "These steps can help reduce the spread of the disease until a vaccine⁸ is available."

Centers for Disease Control quarantine official Martin Cetron says characterizing a pandemic's severity is a new and necessary planning concept. Until now, the chief consideration has been how close the threat has been in time and distance.

"We know quite well when you need to use measures of this sort that can be socially disruptive, attuning⁹ and balancing the severity of the threat with the types of interventions¹⁰ and tools in your toolbox are very important," said Martin Cetron. "

Health Secretary Michael Leavitt says the United States is better prepared for a flu pandemic than one year ago, but has much more work to do.

At a conference of flu experts outside Washington, Johns Hopkins University medical professor John Bartlett emphasized that U.S. hospitals, most of which are private, are a weak point in this gap. They operate for profit and he points out that they are financially marginal with only half the number of beds necessary for a severe pandemic.

"Maybe we could take care of a little pandemic, but for something that is like 1918 influenza, we don't come close to being able to manage." noted¹¹ John Bartlett.

The vaccine forecast is better. The flu experts say several vaccines¹² undergoing human trials show promising¹³ results that would predict their success in a pandemic.