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IMF Optimistic on World Economic Growth

时间:2005-05-24 16:00:00

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By Barry Wood

The International Monetary1 Fund says the world economy is growing at the fastest past in three decades, but in its semi-annual report the international lender says growth is likely to slow in 2005. The IMF is generally optimistic about world growth but views rising oil prices as the main risk.

IMF chief economist2 Raghuram Rajan says despite rising oil prices, the global economy is doing better than had been predicted six months ago.

"Because of the tremendous growth in the early part of the year we have raised our growth forecast from the one we made in April to five percent for 2004. This is the fastest in nearly 30 years. For 2005, however, we have lowered our forecast slightly to 4.3 percent, largely reflecting the effects of higher oil prices."

The semi-annual IMF report shows steady growth in all principal regions of the world, North America, Europe, Asia, Africa and Latin America. Growth is fastest in China (nine percent) and India (six percent), and for the first time in years, Japan is growing rapidly (4.4 percent). The United States is growing at a 4.3 percent pace and sub-Saharan Africa 4.6 percent. Europe is a relative laggard3 with the countries that use the euro currency growing by little more than two percent.

Mr. Rajan identifies the 50 percent rise in oil prices this year as the main risk to continuing growth. He says much of the increase in prices is due to increasing demand for oil in China and India.

"The phenomenal growth of China could have run a few more years without weighing on global energy resources. But because it accompanies the global recovery, the loss of oil production in certain quarters, and the targeting of oil supplies by terrorists, oil prices have risen sharply. While it would be alarmist to call this the first resource crisis of the 21st century, it is certainly a wake-up call."

With the world economy as yet largely unaffected by oil prices of $40 or more per barrel, Mr. Rajan declines to say what price oil would have to reach before it dramatically slows growth or triggers a recession. He says the major economies are today better prepared to cope with energy price shocks than they were in the 1970s. They have, he says, reduced their relative dependence4 on energy and central banks have demonstrated that they can contain the inflation pressure that typically accompanies an oil price shock.

Barry Wood, VOA news, Washington.
注释:
semi-annual 每半年的
tremendous 极大的
sub-Saharan Africa 撒哈拉沙漠以南中部非洲地区
laggard 缓慢的
phenomenal 显著的
alarmist 大惊小怪者,杞人忧天者


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1 monetary pEkxb     
adj.货币的,钱的;通货的;金融的;财政的
参考例句:
  • The monetary system of some countries used to be based on gold.过去有些国家的货币制度是金本位制的。
  • Education in the wilderness is not a matter of monetary means.荒凉地区的教育不是钱财问题。
2 economist AuhzVs     
n.经济学家,经济专家,节俭的人
参考例句:
  • He cast a professional economist's eyes on the problem.他以经济学行家的眼光审视这个问题。
  • He's an economist who thinks he knows all the answers.他是个经济学家,自以为什么都懂。
3 laggard w22x3     
n.落后者;adj.缓慢的,落后的
参考例句:
  • In village,the laggard living condition must be improved.在乡村落后的生活条件必须被改善。
  • Businesshas to some degree been a laggard in this process.商业在这个进程中已经慢了一拍。
4 dependence 3wsx9     
n.依靠,依赖;信任,信赖;隶属
参考例句:
  • Doctors keep trying to break her dependence of the drug.医生们尽力使她戒除毒瘾。
  • He was freed from financial dependence on his parents.他在经济上摆脱了对父母的依赖。

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