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Hurricane Forecasters Predict Stormy Trend

时间:2005-05-26 16:00:00

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By Jim Teeple

First there was Charley, then Frances, and now Ivan; three major hurricanes in a month that have destroyed lives, homes and property across the Caribbean and the southeastern United States.

Hurricane forecasters say people who live in the region affected1 by hurricanes should not be surprised by the increased storm activity.

Scientists who study tropical weather patterns say beginning in 1995 air and water temperatures and circulation patterns in the Atlantic Ocean changed to become more favorable to the formation of more and much stronger storms. William Gray, an atmospheric2 scientist at Colorado State University says this phenomenon, known as a thermohaline circulation, lasts for decades and is what determines the cycle of hurricane activity.

"When this thermohaline circulation, Atlantic Ocean circulation feature goes fast we have more major storms forming in the Atlantic," he said. "When it slows we have fewer ones. Now it was going slow the first decades of the 20th century, then it was fast from about the middle 20th century to the late 60s. From the late 60s to the middle 90s it was going very slow, with many fewer major storms. Now, since '95 this is the 10th year that we feel the thermohaline has been growing stronger and eight of these last 10 years have been very busy."

Mr. Gray, one of the world's leading hurricane researchers, says people who live in the region affected by hurricanes have actually been very lucky during the past 10 years not to have been hit by more storms. He says weather patterns this year have changed somewhat to push more storms ashore4.

"There are probably two basic reasons; one is that we have had a very active season so far, and the second is that the steering5 currents have been moving further west where they impact the United States and the Caribbean," he said.

William Gray also says the El Nino weather pattern that helps to move storms north into the mid3 Atlantic was absent this year, although he says a mild El Nino pattern has begun to emerge, which should make the end of the 2004 hurricane season less active than the first half. The Hurricane season ends on November 30.

Scientists say they do not know how long the current thermohaline circulation pattern will continue, but Professor Gray says if the future is like the past, the current pattern will continue for another 20 or 30 years. He says that means not only will there be more hurricanes, but there will be more of the stronger hurricanes that cause the most destruction.

With many more people living in coastal6 areas than there were during the last period of enhanced hurricane activity, Mr. Gray says the cost of hurricanes will be much higher.

"It is inevitable7 that we will see damage on a scale we have never previously8 seen, because if we are in this more active period it is not that we will have more storms than we had from the middle [19]'20s to the middle 1960s, but that there are so many more people and property in harms way, that it is inevitable that we see hurricane spawned9 damage on a level we have never previously seen," he said.

Professor Gray says one thing that is not causing increased hurricane activity is global warming, which some scientists have pointed10 to as a possible factor behind increased tropical storm activity.

Mr. Gray says hurricane activity follows a measurable pattern based on temperature changes and circulation patterns of air and water in the Atlantic Ocean. What is happening now, he says, is simply that pattern repeating itself, as it has done in the past, and will likely do in the future.

注释:
forecaster 预报员
property 财产
atmospheric 大气的
thermohaline [海洋]热盐的,温盐的
circulation 循环
measurable 可测量的


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点击收听单词发音收听单词发音  

1 affected TzUzg0     
adj.不自然的,假装的
参考例句:
  • She showed an affected interest in our subject.她假装对我们的课题感到兴趣。
  • His manners are affected.他的态度不自然。
2 atmospheric 6eayR     
adj.大气的,空气的;大气层的;大气所引起的
参考例句:
  • Sea surface temperatures and atmospheric circulation are strongly coupled.海洋表面温度与大气环流是密切相关的。
  • Clouds return radiant energy to the surface primarily via the atmospheric window.云主要通过大气窗区向地表辐射能量。
3 mid doTzSB     
adj.中央的,中间的
参考例句:
  • Our mid-term exam is pending.我们就要期中考试了。
  • He switched over to teaching in mid-career.他在而立之年转入教学工作。
4 ashore tNQyT     
adv.在(向)岸上,上岸
参考例句:
  • The children got ashore before the tide came in.涨潮前,孩子们就上岸了。
  • He laid hold of the rope and pulled the boat ashore.他抓住绳子拉船靠岸。
5 steering 3hRzbi     
n.操舵装置
参考例句:
  • He beat his hands on the steering wheel in frustration. 他沮丧地用手打了几下方向盘。
  • Steering according to the wind, he also framed his words more amicably. 他真会看风使舵,口吻也马上变得温和了。
6 coastal WWiyh     
adj.海岸的,沿海的,沿岸的
参考例句:
  • The ocean waves are slowly eating away the coastal rocks.大海的波浪慢慢地侵蚀着岸边的岩石。
  • This country will fortify the coastal areas.该国将加强沿海地区的防御。
7 inevitable 5xcyq     
adj.不可避免的,必然发生的
参考例句:
  • Mary was wearing her inevitable large hat.玛丽戴着她总是戴的那顶大帽子。
  • The defeat had inevitable consequences for British policy.战败对英国政策不可避免地产生了影响。
8 previously bkzzzC     
adv.以前,先前(地)
参考例句:
  • The bicycle tyre blew out at a previously damaged point.自行车胎在以前损坏过的地方又爆开了。
  • Let me digress for a moment and explain what had happened previously.让我岔开一会儿,解释原先发生了什么。
9 spawned f3659a6561090f869f5f32f7da4b950e     
(鱼、蛙等)大量产(卵)( spawn的过去式和过去分词 ); 大量生产
参考例句:
  • The band's album spawned a string of hit singles. 这支乐队的专辑繁衍出一连串走红的单曲唱片。
  • The computer industry has spawned a lot of new companies. 由于电脑工业的发展,许多新公司纷纷成立。
10 pointed Il8zB4     
adj.尖的,直截了当的
参考例句:
  • He gave me a very sharp pointed pencil.他给我一支削得非常尖的铅笔。
  • She wished to show Mrs.John Dashwood by this pointed invitation to her brother.她想通过对达茨伍德夫人提出直截了当的邀请向她的哥哥表示出来。

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