经济学人487:叙利亚战争

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　　叙利亚战争

　　Their own men

　　自己人

　　Islamist rebels sever¹ ties with the political opposition²

　　伊斯兰反对派与政治反对派断绝关系

　　Sep 28th 2013 | CAIRO AND ISTANBUL |From the print edition

　　SYRIA’S exiled opposition has long struggled to influence the course of the civil war. Its ambitions may just have been dashed for good by those who do the actual fighting. On September 24th eleven of Syria’s strongest rebel brigades jointly⁴ announced their rejection⁵ of the Syrian Opposition Coalition⁶ (SOC), the quarrelsome but broadly moderate Istanbul-based dissident leadership that is recognised by Western and Gulf⁷ governments. Syrians outside the country and those picked by foreigners have no authority, said a rebel spokesman. Moreover, he declared, Syria’s revolution must be pursued “within a clear Islamic framework”, based on sharia law as the sole source of legislation.

　　叙利亚流亡的政治反对派一直在努力影响内战的进程。他们的野心可能会被真正参战的反对派所打破。9月24日，叙利亚最强的十一个反叛旅共同宣布他们反对叙利亚反对派联盟（SOC），SOC是西方和海湾各国政府公认的设在伊斯坦布尔的领导，虽然会有争吵，但是相对还是比较温和。一个反对派发言人说，身在国外的叙利亚人和外国人挑选的叙利亚人没有权威。此外，他宣布，叙利亚革命必须奉行“在一个明确的伊斯兰框架之内”，什叶派教法作为立法的唯一来源。

　　New associations come and go in Syria, but this one includes the most powerful and active front-line forces, ranging from moderate Islamists like Liwa al-Tawheed, which previously⁸ pledged allegiance to the coalition’s military wing, the Supreme⁹ Military Command, to jihadist groups such as Jabhat al-Nusra, an al-Qaeda affiliate¹⁰. The decision by groups such as Tawheed to partner with radical¹¹ Islamists guts¹² the military command, leaving it with few groups it can claim to control.

　　叙利亚新旧协会来来去去，但是SOC包含最强大最活跃的一线部队，包括温和派伊斯兰主义者Liwa al-Tawheed，其曾承诺效忠联盟的军事势力最高军事指挥以及诸如基地组织联盟成员，圣战组织Jabhat al-Nusra。诸如Tawheed等组织与激进伊斯兰主义者合作的决定破坏了军事命令，使得很少组织受控于SOC。

　　Islamist fighters of varying hues¹³ have grown to dominate Syria’s mosaic¹⁴ of rebel groups. Outside support for jihadists, which comes mostly from private donors¹⁵ and networks in the Gulf, has proven more reliable than the stop-start flow that foreign governments direct to milder-mannered, Western-approved rivals. Even some vetted¹⁶ fighters have long espoused¹⁷ the creation of an Islamic state, but quietly so as not to worry non-Islamist brothers-in-arms—let alone Syria’s myriad¹⁸ non-Sunni Muslim minorities. The decision to go public is in part down to Egypt, says one rebel man. The coup¹⁹ that ousted²⁰ Muhammad Morsi, a Muslim Brother, showed that there is nothing to gain from paying lip service to democracy.

　　各种色彩的伊斯兰武装分子已经成长为主导叙利亚的反叛联盟。外界对圣战者的支持大多来自私人捐助以及海湾地区的网络，而西方政府则直接向他们认可的对手，温和的派别断断续续的支持，前者被证明更可靠。甚至一些审查的武装分子都希望建立一个伊斯兰国家，但是都是悄悄地说，以免引起非伊斯兰教兄弟联盟，更不要说叙利亚无数的非逊尼派穆斯林少数民族。一个反对派成员表示，作出公开决定的部分原因是埃及。埃及的争辩推翻了穆兄会的穆罕默德穆尔西，表明嘴皮子民主没什么用。

　　Western powers will now find their proxies²¹ have less influence than ever. In the month since America backed away from missile strikes to punish Syria’s regime for using chemical weapons, the SOC has become increasingly irrelevant²². Strikes would have bolstered²³ moderates, including Selim Idriss, a defected general who heads the military command. The ensuing deal between Russia and America whereby Syria’s regime must hand over its chemical weapons was perceived as coming at the expense of the rebels.

　　现在，西方势力他们的代理影响力变得前所未有的微弱。自从美国决定放弃导弹袭击惩罚叙利亚政府使用化学武器以来的一个月，SOC已经变得越来越无关紧要。袭击将会增强温和派的实力，包括负责军事指挥的叛逃将军Selim Idriss。随后美俄之间关于叙利亚政府必须交出其化学武器的协议被发现是由反对派买单。

　　The opposition schism²⁴ renders the prospect²⁵ of a negotiated end to the conflict in the near future flimsier still. But the new joint³ fighting force could act as a bulwark²⁶ against the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS), an al-Qaeda group manned largely by foreign mujahideen that is more radical than Jabhat al-Nusra. ISIS did not sign the statement, and has faced growing hostility²⁷ as it seeks to expand its influence.

　　反对分类使得不久将来通过协商解决冲突的前景变得渺茫。但是新的联合作战部队可以作为反抗伊拉克伊斯兰国和沙姆地区组织（ISIS）的堡垒，ISIS是一个很大程度上由比Jabhat al-Nusra更激进的外国基地组织mujahideen所操纵的组织。ISIS没有签署声明，随着其对外扩张会面对更多的敌意。

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