经济学人:墨西哥崛起 或成中国未来主要竞争对手(2)

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　　革命制度党希望在拿下今年夏季的国会选举，但在500人组成的众议院（Chamber of Deputies）中离多数票差11票，而在128人的参议院（Senate）中差了4票。无论如何，最为重要的改革促使需涉及宪法改革，而后者需要国会三分之二的多数票通过。

　　However, Mr Pena has reason to be optimistic. The opposition² PAN shares much of Mr Pena’s agenda, and together the two parties have a two-thirds majority in both houses of Congress. A new power to fast-track two bills per congressional session will help. A lot will depend on who ends up leading the PAN, which is restive³ and rudderless after finishing third in the presidential election. The handover period between July’s election and December’s inauguration⁴ has been a model of presidential co-operation. Mr Calderon’s crackdown on Mexico’s vindictive⁵ criminals has given him a personal reason to stay on good terms with the new government, to make sure of the protection he and his family will need when he leaves office.

　　即便如此，裴纳尼托也有理由乐观。因为其反对党国家行动党与裴纳尼托的议程大致吻合，而该两党已占了议会三分之二的多数席位。而总统被赋予在两院各增二票的新权力也能起到一定作用。但许多结果将取决于国家行动党的最终领导人。在本次总统中，该党仅位列第三，其后更是纷争不断、群龙无首。六月大选的交接期与十二月接任之间，是以两位总统联合的模式管理。卡尔德隆总统曾对墨西哥恶犯予以严厉制裁，这使得他个人有理由与新政府和谐相处，以确保其离职后自身与家人的人身安全。

　　Fighting on two fronts

　　两组前线作战

　　Mr Pena’s main problem in Congress may well be his own party. As this special report went to press Congress was about to pass a labour-law reform, which among other things would make hiring and firing easier. But linked measures to make Mexico’s over-mighty unions more transparent⁶ and democratic were voted down by congressmen from Mr Pena’s own PRI, which has strong ties to unions. If the unions cannot be tamed, Mr Pena’s other reforms—to open up the monopolised energy sector⁷ and overhaul⁸ the tax system—may be similarly diluted⁹.

　　裴纳尼托在议会的主要问题来自其自身党派。在本报道付诸印梓之时，墨西哥议会即将通过一项劳动法改革方案，该法案尤其突出的一点是放宽了雇佣关系。但与之相关的一些法案却遭到裴纳尼托的革命制度党反对，因为法案中要求增加墨西哥工会的透明度和民主度，而这些本身强势的团体与革命制度当关系密切。若无法让工会听话，那么在开放垄断的能源部门、彻底整改税制等裴纳尼托推行的措施上，其效果也将受到削弱。

　　The runner-up in the election was the left-winger Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, known as AMLO, who came a very close second to Mr Calderon in 2006 but lost to Mr Pena by 6.8%. After both defeats he claimed fraud. The evidence is thin. The left has about a quarter of the seats in Congress, but many of its congressmen have little patience with AMLO, whose magnetic personality repels¹⁰ as many voters as it attracts.

　　本次大选的“亚军”是来自左翼势力的洛佩斯·奥夫拉多尔（Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador，人称AMLO）。2006年的大选上，奥夫拉多尔惜败于卡尔德隆，而本次大选则差了裴纳尼托6.8%的支持率。经历两次失败后，他声称选举存在舞弊，但证据并不充分。左翼势力占据国会约四分之一的席位，但其中大部分人对奥夫拉多尔失去耐心，因为他的人格魅力让一些选民趋之若鹜的同时，让另一些避之不及。

　　The government may also face opposition outside Congress. Though a majority of the political class now seems to be convinced of the need for economic reforms along the lines that Mr Pena proposes, the same may not yet be true on the street, in the public universities or in much of the press. “Mexico is a country where doctrine¹¹ and principle matter more than practical considerations and results,” says Enrique Krauze, a historian. The state-run oil monopoly is the sort of sacred cow that could emit a deafening¹², destabilising moo if Mr Pena tried to tether it. Mexico City already sees an average of 14 protests a day.

　　同时，墨西哥政府还面对议会之外的反对势力。尽管政治阶级的多数已相信裴纳尼托提出经济改革的需要，但墨西哥的大街小巷、公立大学以及媒体报社并非如此。“墨西哥是一个教义信仰高于切实想法与成果的国家，”某历史学家克劳泽（Enrique Krauze）称。国营垄断的石油部门就如同一头圣牛，若裴纳尼托设法拴之，这头圣牛将会发出震耳欲聋的不详之哞。目前，墨西哥城每天平均已有14起游行抗议。

　　The internet is making politics more unpredictable. During the election campaign Mr Pena paid a disastrous¹³ visit to a university and fled after being heckled. This gave rise to an anti-Pena student movement calling itself YoSoy132, or “I am the 132nd” (the initial protest was led by 131 students). It is now capable of summoning large crowds via Twitter and Facebook to march against Mr Pena (and often, it seems, for AMLO). During Mexico’s independence celebrations on September 16th anonymous¹⁴ hackers¹⁵ took down several government websites.

　　而由于因特网，墨西哥的政治也更加难以预测。竞选期间，裴纳尼托曾造访墨西哥某大学，却因遭诘难而仓皇离开，最终悲剧收场。这次访问还引发一场“反裴”学生运动，参与者自称YoSoy132，即“我是第132人”（首次游行由131名学生发起）。而今，通过推特网（Twitter）和脸谱网（Facebook）也能组织其“反裴”游行（这些游行似乎大多支持奥夫拉多尔）。而在墨西哥9月16日独立日庆祝之际，匿名的网络黑客还搞垮了数个墨西哥政府网站。

　　So it will not be an easy ride. Mr Krauze remembers that the optimism when the North American Free-Trade Agreement (NAFTA) came into force in 1994 was quickly punctured¹⁶ by the Zapatista uprising in Mexico’s south on New Year’s Day. “We thought we were there in the first world, on the final lap of our historic marathon. Then on January 1st we woke up to the astonishing news of a rebellion in Chiapas,” he says.

　　因此，改革之路丝毫不易。据克劳泽回忆，1994年北美自由贸易协定（NAFTA）正式生效后不久，墨西哥南部的萨帕塔主义者于元旦日发动动乱，给协定带来的乐观情绪蒙上一层阴影。“当时我们还认为自己已步入第一世界（常指发达国家，译者注），进入历史长跑的最后一圈。没想到元旦那天，恰帕斯(墨西哥东南边境州，译者注)的争辩新闻让我们又清醒过来。”

　　Mexico has form in turning triumph to disaster, and could yet do so again. Its economy remains¹⁷ dependent on the fortunes of the United States, and financial crises in Europe make investors¹⁸ jittery¹⁹. Promised reforms will depend on persuading entrenched²⁰ interests to accept them. Corruption²¹ and bad government, especially at the local level, may cause good initiatives to fall at the last hurdle²². And the drug war is by no means over. But Mexico deserves a fresh look—not least because its economy is revving²³ up, as the next article explains.

　　墨西哥历来会从胜利跌至灾难，这次可能也不例外。其国内经济仍相当依赖美国，而欧洲金融海啸也可能让墨西哥的投资商犹豫不决。政府承诺经济改革的实现前提，仍然是说服既得利益者们同意。政府贪污腐败（尤其是地方级政府）也可能成为改革最后一环的失败原因。另外，缉毒战争也从未停止。但墨西哥值得我们重新评价，其原因之一正是其不断加速的经济增长，详情请看下一篇文章。翻译：沈骜

　　1.In any case 无论如何

　　例句:In any case, separation of the two viewpoints is mandatory²⁴.

　　无论如何，把这两种观点分开是必不可少的。

　　2.depend on 依靠；依赖

　　例句:We depend on the newspapers for information about what is happening.

　　我们依凭报纸获悉所发生的事情。

　　3.leave office 退休；卸任

　　例句:They told me Mr.Smith would leave office in one month.

　　他们告诉我史密斯先后将于一个月以后退休。

　　4.open up 打开；建立

　　例句:They decided²⁵ to open up an office in town.

　　他们决定在市区设立一个办事处。

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