Business Channel 2007-08-13&08-15, 市场进入疲软？
时间：2007-10-10 03:27:37
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Script:
Well, some analysts1 are saying that the turmoil2 in the U.S markets is starting to resemble the biggest financial crisis of the past century. So are traders right to hit the sale bottom out? let’s ask an expert, it's Stephen Pope, a head of Equity3 Research at Cantor Fitzgerald Europe. And he joins me in the studio now. Good morning to you.
Do you think we’re at a real global crisis point here in high risk lending? Do you think we’re at that, at that junction4 now?
Well I think in terms of the higher risk situation, then what you are seeing is a cry for greater transparency and accountability. But in terms of asset system into the rest of the financial system? No, it’s not. So some of the movements you’re seeing in the equity markets today are somewhat overdone5.
But there are some pretty, pretty dark pictures that we, that we’ve been seeing today. And we were talking to our correspondent Dan at the London Stock Exchange and we were seeing pictures of banking6 stocks down five percent, seemingly across the board. And of course all these are off the back of the massive US slide. It's a pretty bleak7 picture, isn’t it?
Yes, and with the banking sector8, that has been in the fund and unfree the last two weeks. What I think you gotta start looking at is some of the pressure on them is getting to be too extreme. So the higher-profile banks that have good liquidity9 balances and a very good loan book. Those reports are beginning to become quite good bargains.
What about some of these smaller banks now, some of the smaller lenders, do you think we are gonna see a knock-on effect and see them affected10 now, because that’s what some of the concerns are, aren’t they?
Yes, I think you will see that the smaller lenders who probably have more exposure to this territory and are probably least able to weather the storm are gonna be the ones who would be left to the wayside. Because investors11 are going to say, no, we’re not going down that risk at the current time, because once you have this element of uncertainty12, and unknown debt, then people are going to say, well we will go with the benchmark players as against the smaller fringe operators.
Stephen, do you think what we’re gonna see now is people hunting for safer investments?
I think yes, you will have seen a social flood got into the government bond sector. But so many within the equities13, you’ll start to see a drift towards those large-cap companies that operate good goods and services. Because, for example, the global economy is quite sound. If you just look at the USA-India nuclear deal, there is plenty of contract/ money to be won and that’s gonna feature through the bottom line.
Well, (it's a) strange dichotomy isn't it. We do have a sound global economy, and yet what we’re seeing on the markets at the moment does seem to be predicting some kind of big tumble, and those two don't seem to tally14? .
No, well I think that’s why I’m saying that the tumble is somewhat overdone at the current time. The central banks, their role is to stem inflation, but also to create an orderly monetary15 market. And that’s what they were doing through yesterday and again this morning, creating the liquidity, not a sort of discount rate,we were just saying, this is the rate we’re creating in the markets anyway, so the window is open, if you can justify16 a nature income, we can give you liquidity.
OK, Stephen Pope, From Cantor Fitzgerald Europe, thank you very much talking to us. Thank you.
Notes:
Dichotomy: Division into two usually contradictory parts or opinions
Knock-on effect: a secondary or incidental effect
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