经济学人:商品:全球形势紧张(2)

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　　European grain prices have surged as a result. But those of many other commodities are sagging³. 欧洲粮食价格也因此飙升。但是很多其他商品价格却在下降。

　　On August 22nd a pound of arabica coffee fell below $1, less than the cost of a takeaway brew⁴ and the lowest in 12 years. 8月22日，一磅小粒咖啡价格低至一美元不到，比外卖啤酒成本还低，成为12年来的最低价。

　　Raw sugar was also at ten-year lows. Both have been hit by oversupply⁵ in Brazil, as well as a slide in the value of the real, the Brazilian currency, 粗糖也到达了10年最低价。受巴西供应过量以及巴西货币雷亚尔贬值的影响，这两种食物价格受到冲击，

　　which makes it more compelling to sell crops, priced in dollars, rather than store them. 将这商品储存起来，还不如按美元进行售卖更能激发人们的兴趣。

　　The previous week, prices of copper⁶ fell into bear-market territory, down by more than 20% since June, 由于担心贸易保护主义会抑制全球增长，尤其是中国市场额增长，

　　on fears that protectionism would dampen global growth, especially in China, 上一周，铜的价格进入熊市，自6月份起下跌已超过20%，

　　whose efforts to crack down on financial leverage⁷ are another drag on expansion. 中国压制金融杠杆的努力是对扩张的另一种拖延。

　　Oil prices have dipped for seven straight weeks, also because of concerns about lack lustre⁸ demand in emerging markets 出于对新兴市场需求不足的担心以及美元的强势使得货币疲软的国家购买原材料成本增加，

　　and because a strong dollar makes it dearer for those with weak currencies to buy crude. 石油价格连续7周下跌。

　　Gold has developed a strange habit of sliding in sync with the Chinese yuan. 黄金已经形成了和人民币同步下跌的惯性。

　　American corn and soyabean prices, meanwhile, continue a long streak⁹ of weakness caused mainly by harvests that get more bountiful by the year. 与此同时，截止今年，玉米和大豆大丰收，美国玉米和大豆价格也受此影响而低迷。

　　The Department of Agriculture is forecasting a record corn yield this year and the biggest harvest of soyabeans ever, 农业部预测今年玉米产量会创纪录，大豆也将获得最大丰收，

　　something the crop tour is likely to validate¹⁰, Mr Seifried says. But that is lousy timing¹¹, given that China, 赛弗里德表示，这些可能是他们想要去证实的事情。但是现在不是证实的好时机，考虑到中国—

　　which was America's biggest buyer of soyabeans, raised retaliatory¹² tariffs¹³ on the crop in July. 美国最大的大豆买方，今年7月对美国农作物增收报复性关税。

　　Farmers hope to sell more in Europe, where soya meal for animal feed is in high demand because of the high cost of wheat. 农民们希望能更多的在欧洲进行推销，由于小麦成本高，所以欧洲人用豆渣喂养动物，因此对大豆需求很高。

　　But the slide in the real also makes Brazilian soyabeans more competitive. 但是现实情况是，价格下滑也让巴西的大豆更具有竞争力。

　　Optimism flickers¹⁴ from time to time. Many commodities rallied in the run-up to the latest trade talks between American and Chinese officials, 乐观主义有时也会跳动。在近期中美高层会谈前夕，很多商品回弹，中美高层会谈在《经济学人》付印后

　　which were due to end after The Economist¹⁵ went to press. The dollar fell, bolstering¹⁶ some commodities, 也将结束。美元下跌支撑起了一些商品

　　after President Donald Trump¹⁷ said in an interview with Reuters on August 20th that 此前8月20日，唐纳德·特朗普总统在接受《路透社》采访时表示

　　he was "not thrilled" with the Federal Reserve's policy of raising American interest rates. 美联储增加美国利率的政策并没有让他感到“激动”。

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