经济学人:全球增长放缓 美国成为异类(1)

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　　A sell-off in bond markets, prompted by monetary¹ tightening² in America, this week infected global stock markets, too. 由美国货币紧缩所引起的债券市场跌价，本周也影响到了全球股票市场。

　　The S&P 500 share-price index fell by over 3% on October 10th, its worst day in eight months. 10月10日，标准普尔500股价指数下跌超过3%，这是8个月中最糟糕的一天，

　　Markets in Shanghai hit their lowest level for nearly four years the next day; those in Japan and Hong Kong closed around 3.5% lower. 第二天上海股票市场跌至近四年来最低水平；日本和香港股票市场收盘价下跌约为3.5%。

　　At first glance, the sell-off seems odd. The world economy is still growing briskly enough: 乍看之下，此次证券跌价似乎很奇怪。全球经济仍在迅速增长：

　　this week the IMF only slightly trimmed its forecast for world GDP growth for 2018, from 3.9% to 3.7%. But investors³ are right to fret⁴. 本周国际货币基金组织（IMF）仅对2018年世界GDP增长预测进行了微调，从3.9%降至3.7%。但是投资者的焦虑是正确的。

　　Whereas acceleration⁵ was synchronised across much of the world in 2017, the global economy's expansion now looks increasingly unbalanced. 2017年全球经济加速基本同步，但如今全球经济扩张看似愈发不平衡了。

　　Two divides stand out. The first is between emerging markets, which are suffering from particularly volatile⁶ financial conditions, and advanced economies. 有两点重大差异引人注目。第一个是在新兴市场之间，新兴市场正在遭遇尤为反复无常的金融形势，但其经济体系却很发达。

　　The cause of this divergence⁷ is a strong dollar, which is making emerging markets' debts that are denominated in the currency costlier⁸ to service. 出现这种差异的原因是因为一种强势货币，使得新兴市场中以货币为面值的债务成本高于服务。

　　The latest casualty is Pakistan. On October 8th it announced that it would seek an IMF bail-out, which is expected to amount to $12bn. 最近一位受害者是巴基斯坦。10月8日，巴基斯坦宣布将寻求IMF救市，救市金额有望达到120亿美元。

　　It joins the ranks of other emerging markets in distress⁹, notably¹⁰ Argentina, which has negotiated a record $57bn credit line from the IMF, and Turkey. 该国成为了其他遇难新兴市场中的一员，其中受灾最为严重的是阿根廷（该国从IMF谈来了高达570美元的信用额度）以及土耳其。

　　Sustained falls in emerging-market currencies and stocks have been painful for investors. Several countries have raised interest rates to stem capital outflows. 新兴市场货币和股价的持续下跌一直是投资者的痛处。一些国家提高了利息以阻止资本流出。

　　Yet the damage to the real economy has for the most part been confined to those with large current-account deficits¹¹, such as Argentina. 但是对实体经济的破坏大部分仅限于那些拥有大量往来账户赤字的国家，比如阿根廷。

　　From a global perspective, the bigger worry is China. 从全球角度来看，中国更让人担心。

　　Authorities there are trying to reduce leverage¹² in the financial system at the same time as American tariffs¹³ are squeezing their exports. 中国当局正试图降低金融体系中的杠杆率，与此同时美国关税也在挤压他们的出口。

　　The currency is under pressure; growth expectations are being lowered. 货币面临压力；增长预期被降低。

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