经济学人:法德关系:联手时代(2)

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Nothing big will happen before the German election in September. 在德国九月大选前应该不会有宣布任何重大决策。

But then, if Mrs Merkel obtains the solid victory that polls predict, she will have political capital to spend and, probably, her departure date in mind. 如果Merkel夫人能如民调预测的那样赢得大选，那么她就有足够的政治资本来做出决策了，但是Merkel夫人也有可能输掉大选。

Mr Schuble is not expected to hold on to the finance ministry², which could fall to the SPD or Greens (a coalition³ including the FDP would be more hawkish) . 朔依布勒先生预计不会继续连任财务部部长，财政部可能会落入社民党或绿党（包括自民党在内的联合政府也许会更加强硬）。

Thus, says Henrik Enderlein of the Jacques Delors Institute in Berlin, winter coalition talks could be a “historic moment, a chance to open doors to real euro zone reform.” 在柏林的雅克德洛尔研究所的Henrik Enderlein 表示：冬季的联盟谈判可能会是一个“历史性的时刻”，是一个打开欧元区真正改革的大门的机会。

The institute has a plan, “Repair and Prepare”, illustrating⁴ what might happen next. 该研究所有一个计划，那就是“恢复和准备”，从而阐明接下来会发生什么。

It starts with “first aid” measures to stabilise the euro by strengthening the European Stability Mechanism⁵,  首先，该研究从稳固欧元地位的“第一援助”措施出发，通过加强欧洲稳定机制、

its rescue fund, and introducing risk-sharing to some national deposit-insurance schemes. 救助基金和为一些国家制定存款保险计划，借机引入风险分担机制。

Next would come a wave of co-ordinated structural⁶ reforms, to labour markets for example, combined with a joint⁷ investment fund. 接下来将出现一波协调的结构性改革浪潮，比如劳动力市场，再加上一个联合投资基金。

And finally, perhaps some years later, a “federal moment”:  最后，也许是几年后，一个“联邦时刻”：

treaty change creating a monetary⁸ fund, budget, finance minister and parliament for the euro zone, as well as a common deposit-insurance scheme. 条约的改变，为欧元区建立货币基金，预算，财政部长和议会，以及共同的存款计划。

If Mr Macron cannot win over the Germans, it's hard to imagine a president who could. 如果连Macron先生都无法说服德国人，那么其他总统更不可能办到了。

But that may be his greatest strength: Berlin is aware that Marine⁹ Le Pen is down, but not yet out. 但是这可能是他最大的优势了：德国人很清楚，勒庞正处于下风，但是还没出局。

 

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