经济学人:气候变化与尼罗河:洪水和饥荒(1)

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Climate Change and the Nile: Flood and Famine 气候变化与尼罗河：洪水和饥荒

The country in the Nile basin will suffer if they do not learn to cooperate. 如果尼罗河流域各国不互相协作，那么他们将遭受苦难。

To the untrained eye, the satellite photos of north-west Ethiopia on July 10th may have seemed benign¹. 对于普通人来说，从7月10日拍摄的阿塞俄比亚西北部的照片上看一切还是正常的。

They showed a relatively² small pool of water next to an enormous building site on the Blue Nile, the main tributary³ of the Nile river. 这些照片显示的是靠近尼罗河主要的支流，青尼罗河上正在修筑的巨大建筑的附近，有着一片相对较小的水域。

But the project under construction is the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance⁴ Dam, which is more than halfway⁵ complete. 但是这项正在修筑的工程是大埃塞俄比亚文艺复兴大坝，项目进度已过半。

And the water is why it is so controversial. 这片水域正是这大坝位置饱受争议的原因。

Since Ethiopia announced its plan to build the dam, it has inspired threats of sabotage⁶ from Egypt,  自从埃塞俄比亚宣布修建大坝的计划以来，它就激发了来自下游地区埃及的破坏威胁，

which sits downstream and relies on the Nile for electricity, farming and drinking water. 因为埃及的电力、农业和饮用水都依赖于尼罗河。

Egypt claims that it is entitled to a certain proportion of the Nile's water based on colonial-era treaties. 埃及声称根据殖民时期的条约，它有权获得尼罗河的一定的水资源。

Ethiopia dismisses those agreements. 埃塞俄比亚驳回了这些协议。

The pool of water in the photos suggested that it was beginning to fill the reservoir behind the dam, reducing the river's flow. 照片中的水池表明水坝后面的水库将被填满，从而减少了河水的流量。

That turns out not to have been the case. 事实证明并非如此。

The pool was deemed by Egypt to be a result of construction and seasonal⁷ Nile flooding. 埃及认为的大坝其实是由于建筑物和尼罗河季节性洪水造成的。

But the alarms it raised are indicative of how sensitive negotiations⁸ between Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan have become. 但它造成的紧张局势提醒着人们，埃及、埃塞俄比亚和苏丹之间的谈判变得多么敏感。

Talks over such things as how fast to fill the reservoir and how to operate the dam have stumbled. 关于水库要填满的速度和如何操作大坝等问题的讨论都以失败而告终。

And a potentially huge complication looms⁹ over any discussion of the Nile's future: climate change. 在关于尼罗河未来的讨论中，潜在的巨大问题是：气候变化。

By 2050 around a billion people will live in the countries through which the Nile and its tributaries¹⁰ flow. 到2050年底，约有十亿人将生活在尼罗河及其支流流过的国家。

That alone will put enormous stress on the water supply. 仅这一点就将给供水带来巨大压力。

But according to a study by Mohamed Siam and Elfatih Eltahir of MIT, potential changes to the river's flow, resulting from climate change, may add to the strain. 但是，根据麻省理工学院的Mohamed Siam和elfatih Eltahir对气候变化造成的河流的流量变化的研究，情况可能会更加严峻。

Messrs Siam and Eltahir conclude that on current trends the annual flow could increase, on average, by up to 15%. Siam和Eltahir认为，按照当前的趋势，尼罗河及其支流每年的流量可能会增加，平均达15%。

 

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