经济学人:科技革命:内燃机迎来末日(2)

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The shift from fuel and pistons² to batteries and electric motors is unlikely to take that long. 从燃料和活塞到电池和电力马达的转型不可能用这么长的时间。

The first death rattles³ of the internal combustion⁴ engine are already reverberating⁵ around the world—and many of the consequences will be welcome. 内燃机的第一声濒死哀鸣早已回响在世界各地——这一后果中的许多东西都将是受欢迎的。

To gauge⁶ what lies ahead, think how the internal combustion engine has shaped modern life. 要想预测今后的情况，想一想内燃机是如何塑造了当代生活的。

The rich world was rebuilt for motor vehicles, with huge investments in road networks and the invention of suburbia, along with shopping malls and drive-through restaurants. 当初，富裕世界就是为汽车而重建的，具体地说就是道路网的大笔投资和城镇郊区的发明，以及各种购物中心和免下车餐厅。

Roughly 85% of American workers commute⁷ by car. 大约85%的美国工人乘车上下班。

Carmaking was also a generator⁸ of economic development and the expansion of the middle class, in post-war America and elsewhere. 在战后美国和其他各地，汽车制造还是经济发展和中产阶层膨胀的一位缔造者。

There are now about 1bn cars on the road, almost all powered by fossil fuels. 如今，大约有1万亿辆车在路上，几乎全都是由化石燃料驱动。

Though most of them sit idle, America's car and lorry engines can produce ten times as much energy as its power stations. 美国的汽车和卡车发动机尽管大部分处于闲置状态，但是，它们能够产生十倍于电站的能量。

The internal combustion engine is the mightiest⁹ motor in history. 内燃机是史上最威猛的发动机。

But electrification¹⁰ has thrown the car industry into turmoil¹¹. 但是，电动化却让汽车行业陷入了危机之中。

Its best brands are founded on their engineering heritage—especially in Germany. 该行业的最佳品牌是建立在它们的工艺传承之上的——尤其是在德国。

Compared with existing vehicles, electric cars are much simpler and have fewer parts; they are more like computers on wheels. 与现有的车辆相比，电动车简单得多，而且零部件也少了；它们更像是轮子上的计算机。

That means they need fewer people to assemble them and fewer subsidiary systems from specialist suppliers. 这意味着，它们需要更少的人手来组装，更少的来自专业供应商的辅助系统。

Carworkers at factories that do not make electric cars are worried that they could be for the chop. 在工厂里不生产电动车的汽车工人担心他们可能被裁员。

With less to go wrong, the market for maintenance and spare parts will shrink. 由于故障减少，维修和备件市场会萎缩。

While today's carmakers grapple with their costly¹² legacy¹³ of old factories and swollen¹⁴ workforces¹⁵, new entrants will be unencumbered. 就在当今的汽车厂商勉力应付它们代价高昂的旧厂房和臃肿员工的遗产时，新的加入者将会了无牵挂。

Premium¹⁶ brands may be able to stand out through styling and handling, but low-margin, mass-market carmakers will have to compete chiefly on cost. 优质品牌或许有能力通过款式和工艺脱颖而出，但是薄利多销的厂商将不得不首先在成本方面进行竞争。

Assuming, of course, that people want to own cars at all. 当然，假设人们想拥有自己的汽车的。

 

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