经济学人:全球化放缓(1)

搜索关注在线英语听力室公众号：tingroom，领取免费英语资料大礼包。

Slowbalisation 全球化速度减缓

A new pattern of world commerce is becoming clearer—as are its costs 一种新的世界商业模式正变得越来越清晰——其成本也是如此

When America took a protectionist turn two years ago, it provoked dark warnings about the miseries¹ of the 1930s. 两年前，美国转向贸易保护主义引发20世纪30年代悲剧的黑暗警告。

Today those ominous² predictions look misplaced. 如今这些不祥的预言似乎放错了地方。

Yes, China is slowing. 没错，中国正在放缓。

And, yes, Western firms exposed to China, such as Apple, have been clobbered³. 且与中国联系密切的西方公司，如苹果公司，确实遭到痛击。

But in 2018 global growth was decent, unemployment fell and profits rose. 但2018年全球增速尚可，失业率下降，利润上升。

In November President Donald Trump⁴ signed a trade pact⁵ with Mexico and Canada. 11月，唐纳德·特朗普总统同墨西哥和加拿大签署了一份贸易协定。

If talks over the next month lead to a deal with Xi Jinping, relieved markets will conclude that the trade war is about political theatre and squeezing a few concessions⁶ from China, not detonating global commerce. 如果下个月的谈判能和习近平主席达成协议，如释重负的市场将得出这样的结论:贸易战是一场政治戏剧，是为了迫使中国做出一些让步，而不是引爆全球商业。

Such complacency is mistaken. 这种自满是错误的。

Today's trade tensions are compounding a shift that has been under way since the financial crisis in 2008-09. 如今的贸易紧张加剧了自2008-09年金融危机以来一直在发生的一种转变。

As we explain, cross-border investment, trade, bank loans and supply chains have all been shrinking or stagnating⁷ relative to world GDP. 正如我们所解释的，相对于世界GDP，跨境投资、贸易、银行贷款和供应链都在萎缩或停滞。

Globalisation has given way to a new era of sluggishness⁸. 全球化俨然已经让位给一个萧条的新时代。

Adapting a term coined by a Dutch writer, we call it “slowbalisation”. 借用一位荷兰作家创造的术语，我们称之为“全球化减缓”。

The golden age of globalisation, in 1990-2010, was something to behold⁹. 全球化1990年至2010年的黄金时代值得期待。

Commerce soared as the cost of shifting goods in ships and planes fell, phone calls got cheaper, tariffs¹⁰ were cut and the financial system liberalised. 随着船舶和飞机运输成本的下降、通话成本的降低、关税的降低以及金融体系的自由化，商业活动大幅增长。

Bussiness went gangbusters, as firms set up around the world, investors¹¹ roamed and consumers shopped in supermarkets with enough choice to impress Phileas Fogg. 商业大获成功，随着公司在世界各地纷纷成立，投资者遍布各地，在超市购物的消费者选择多种多样，这些给斐利亚·福克留下了深刻的印象。

 

分享到：