2015年经济学人 美国国内形势 共和党掌权

（单词翻译）

The state of the states

Republicans in charge

The GOP has more clout¹ in the states than at any time since the 1920s

ON ELECTION nights, the results for state legislatures get short shrift. Americans want to know who won the presidency² or which party controls Congress, not whether the Kentucky state Senate turned red. But those not paying attention to recent down-ballot results have missed something big. Republicans now dominate government at the state level (see map). Bolstered³ by victories in last year's mid-term elections, they hold 31 state governorships, to the Democrats⁴' 18. (Alaska's governor, Bill Walker, is an independent, although he was a Republican until 2013.)

Republicans now control both chambers⁵ in 30 state legislatures, while the Democrats control 11 and eight are split. In 24 states Republican power is unchecked—meaning they control the legislature and the governorship. The party has not had this much clout in the states since the 1920s.

When a clutch of new Republican governors took office four years ago, they acted on their conservative impulses, cutting taxes, trimming welfare and restricting abortion⁶. Scott Walker of Wisconsin became a Republican hero for taking on the public-sector unions: he made state employees chip in more for their pensions, ended the automatic deduction⁷ of union dues from their wages and barred unions from collective bargaining over issues other than pay. The tax cuts of Sam Brownback, the governor of Kansas, were so bold as to earn an unwieldy nickname: Brownbackonomics. Both Mr Walker and Mr Brownback won re-election last year, while Republicans nabbed governorships in Democratic states like Illinois, Maryland and Massachusetts. But the tide of conservative legislation may be ebbing⁸. With many states facing big fiscal⁹ challenges, Republican governors have adopted a more moderate tone when laying out their agendas for 2015.

Take Mr Walker, who has described a proposal to make Wisconsin a “right-to-work” state—ie, to ban deals that make it compulsory¹⁰ for workers at a private company to join a union—as a “distraction”. Faced with a $2.2 billion budget gap over the next two years, the governor has largely abandoned talk of cutting taxes. Republicans hold large majorities in both legislative¹¹ chambers, but they support such fiscal prudence¹².

Presidential ambitions may be tempering Mr Walker's conservative zeal¹³, but other Republican governors are following suit. In Arizona, which also faces a budget shortfall, Doug Ducey has scaled back his campaign promise to cut income taxes. Gary Herbert of Utah has told lawmakers to consider raising petrol or sales taxes to pay for highway repairs. Illinois finds itself in the deepest hole of any state, so Bruce Rauner has warned his constituents¹⁴ that they will all need to sacrifice.

To the newly-elected, Mr Brownback now serves as a cautionary tale. His business- and income-tax cuts, signed in 2012 and 2013, were the most ambitious of any state. He wanted to close loopholes to pay for this, but the legislature refused, leading to an enormous loss of revenue. After a hoped-for economic boom did not materialise, Standard & Poor's, a credit-rating agency, downgraded Kansas's debt, declaring its budget “structurally unbalanced”. Mr Brownback barely eked¹⁵ out a victory last year. In his inaugural¹⁶ address this month he acknowledged that the state has economic problems, but claimed “the solutions are principally cultural and moral”.

John Kasich, the governor of Ohio (who may also be gearing up for a presidential run), has been more pragmatic. Since taking office in 2011 he has balanced the state's budget while cutting taxes and red tape. He also picked a fight with public-sector unions, and lost. That spurred him to adopt a more conciliatory approach. Having won re-election by over 30 points last year, he now wants to cut income taxes even more—but he would pay for it by raising taxes on energy companies, which has incurred¹⁷ the wrath¹⁸ of some on the right.

Mr Kasich has faced fiercer criticism from conservatives for having accepted federal Obamacare dollars to expand Medicaid, the public health programme for the poor, in 2014. But he may have been ahead of the curve. Last month Bill Haslam said he hoped to make Tennessee the tenth state with a Republican governor to expand the programme. (His plan must still pass the legislature.) Five others are thinking about it. Some want to incorporate ideas like cost-sharing or job-training requirements, which would provide political cover. Drew Altman of the Kaiser Family Foundation, a research outfit¹⁹, predicts that eventually “most, if not all” of the remaining states will find some way to accept the extra cash and expand Medicaid.

Schoolyard brawl²⁰

With just seven states under complete Democratic control, it is easy to forget about the party's governors. But most have also set aside ideology²¹ to pursue practical agendas. In California Jerry Brown has held the line on spending, even as the state's university system clamours for cash. Instead of introducing new programmes, Mr Brown has focused on dealing²² with the state's long-term debts. In New York, Andrew Cuomo has vowed²³ to tackle inequality and improve education. He has already upset teachers' unions by signalling that he wants to increase the number of charter schools and make it easier to fire bad teachers.

The states are not devoid²⁴ of ideological²⁵ conflict. Twenty-five are suing Barack Obama over his refusal to deport²⁶ certain groups of illegal immigrants. Others are considering voter-ID requirements, drug tests for welfare recipients²⁷ and further curbs²⁸ on unions. A host of anti-abortion bills have been filed: Republicans are trying to build on the 231 new restrictions²⁹ adopted since 2010, according to the Guttmacher Institute, a pro-choice think-tank. Many legislatures are also wrestling with gay marriage; 14 states still do not allow it. But on fiscal issues, at least, tight budgets restrain the radicals³⁰ of the right.