2016年经济学人 帝国野心 马克扎克伯格的下一个计统治地位(下)

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It already uses AI techniques to identify people in photos, for example, and to decide which status updates and ads to show to each user. Facebook is also pushing into AI-powered digital assistants and chatbot programs which interact with users via short messages. Next week it is expected to open up its Messenger service (which can already be used to do things like order an Uber car), to broaden the range of chatbots. And Facebook's investment in VR—it bought Oculus, the cheerleader of this emerging field, for $2 billion in 2014—is a bold guess about where computing¹ and communication will go after the smartphone.

例如，它已经利用人工智能技术来辨识照片中的人像，也用这一技术确定向每个用户展示什么样的状态更新和广告。Facebook还在推动由人工智能支持的数字助手和聊天机器人程序，它们通过简短的信息与用户互动。下周它计划开放Messenger服务（它已经可以用来做一些事情，例如从优步叫车），并且拓宽聊天机器人的适用范围。Facebook在虚拟现实上的投资是对计算和通信在智能手机之后将何去何从的大胆预测，它于2014年以20亿美元收购了这一新兴领域的领头羊Oculus。

But Facebook faces rivals in all these areas. Google is using AI techniques to improve its internet services and guide self-driving cars, and other industry giants are also investing heavily in AI—though with the deepest pockets and the most data to crunch², Facebook and Google can attract the best researchers and most promising³ startups. Facebook lags behind Amazon, Apple, Google and Microsoft when it comes to voice-driven personal assistants; when it comes to chatbots, it faces competition from Microsoft and a host of startups eager to prove that bots are the new apps. And its push into VR—which Mr Zuckerberg sees as a stepping stone to “augmented reality” (AR), where information is superimposed on the real world—pits it against formidable rivals, too. Microsoft has jumped straight to AR with its HoloLens headset, its most impressive product in years, and Google, already active in VR, has invested in Magic Leap, a little-known AR startup.

但是在所有这些领域Facebook都有对手。谷歌正利用人工智能技术提升其互联网服务、指引无人驾驶汽车，其他业界巨头也不惜重金投资人工智能，不过Facebook和谷歌钱袋最鼓、有最多数据可供分析，因此能吸引到最优秀的研究人员和最具潜力的创业公司。在由语音控制的个人助理领域，Facebook落后于亚马逊、苹果、谷歌和微软；而在聊天机器人领域，它的对手是微软以及诸多急于证明机器人是新应用的创业公司。虚拟现实领域被扎克伯格视作“增强现实”（AR）的踏脚石，AR即信息被叠加在真实世界上的技术。进军这一领域也让Facebook和强敌正面交锋。微软凭借其多年来最引人瞩目的产品HoloLens头盔直接挺进AR，而在VR领域已十分活跃的谷歌已经投资了Magic Leap，一家鲜为人知的AR创业公司。

The scale of Facebook's ambition, and the rivalries⁴ it faces, reflect a consensus⁵ that these technologies will transform how people interact with each other, with data and with their surroundings. AI will help devices and services anticipate your needs (Google's Inbox app already suggests replies to your e-mails).

Facebook的雄心壮志及其面临的竞争反映出一个共识，即这些技术将转变人与人之间、人与数据之间、人与周围环境之间的互动方式。人工智能会帮助设备和服务预测你的需求（谷歌的Inbox应用已经能对如何回复电子邮件提出建议）。

Conversational⁶ interfaces⁷ will let you look things up and get things done by chatting to a machine by voice or text. And intelligent services will spread into a plethora⁸ of products, such as wearable devices, cars and VR/AR goggles⁹. In a decade's time computing seems likely to take the form of AR interfaces mediated¹⁰ by AI, using gestures and speech for inputs¹¹ and the whole world as its display. Information will be painted onto the world around you, making possible new forms of communication, creativity and collaboration¹².

会话接口能让你通过语音或文字与机器对话来查阅信息和完成任务。智能服务将扩展到太多产品中，如可穿戴设备、汽车和VR/AR眼镜等。十年之内，计算看似有可能采取增强现实界面，以人工智能为媒介，用手势和语音进行输入，将整个世界作为它的显示器。信息将被叠映在你周围的世界之上，让新形式的交流、创造与合作成为可能。

This is the ambitious vision that Facebook, Google, Microsoft and other technology giants are working towards. But along the way there are certain to be privacy and security concerns. Crunching¹³ all that information to provide personalised services looks a lot like surveillance, and will cause a backlash if consumers do not feel they are getting a good deal in return for handing over their personal details (as the advertising¹⁴ industry is discovering to its cost)—or if security is inadequate¹⁵.

这是Facebook、谷歌、微软及其他科技巨头为之努力奋斗的恢弘愿景。但沿途必定会有隐私和安全问题。分析所有信息以提供个性化的服务看起来很像监控，并且如果消费者感觉在提交个人详细资料后并没有获得大量回报（广告业吃过苦头后正在明白这一点），又或者安全性不足，会引发激烈反对。

There will also be worries about concentration and monopoly, and the danger of closed ecosystems¹⁶ that make it hard for people to switch between services. Facebook's plan to offer free access to a limited subset of websites was blocked by India's telecoms regulator, which argued that it was “risky” to allow one company to act as a gatekeeper. And Germany's competition authority is investigating the way Facebook handles personal data. As its dominance grows, Facebook can expect to face more such cases, as Microsoft and Google did before it.

也有人会担心集中、垄断以及封闭式生态系统的危险，让人很难在各种服务之间切换。Facebook提供免费接入一些指定网站的计划被印度电信监管部门阻拦，它们认为让一家公司来把关“太过危险”。德国的竞争主管机构正在调查Facebook处理个人信息的方式。随着其统治地位的不断加强，可以预见Facebook会遭遇更多此类情况，正如微软和谷歌所经历的那样。

Striking a balance between becoming ever more intimately entwined in billions of peoples' lives, making huge profits as a result and avoiding a backlash will be one of the biggest business challenges of the century. Even in ancient Rome, emperors could find that the crowd suddenly turned against them. So applaud Mr Zuckerberg—and fear for him, too.

既能和数十亿人的生活更紧密地交织在一起，又可借此获得巨额利润并且避免强烈反对，如何在其间取得平衡将成为本世纪最大的商业挑战之一。即便是在古罗马，帝王们也会发现民众会突然转而反抗他们。所以为扎克伯格鼓掌，也为他担忧吧。