2016年经济学人 婴儿的离奇流失 揭开持久生育低谷的谜团(下)

（单词翻译）

Fertility rates have fallen in countries with woeful economies, such as Greece and Italy. But they have also fallen in countries that sailed through the financial crisis, such as Australia and Norway. Although the American baby bust¹ was expected, the lack of recovery after seven years seems odd. “I was fairly confident that women were just delaying births, and that we would see a rebound,” says Mr Johnson. “I'm beginning to wonder now.” In Britain the drop came late: the fertility rate fell from 1.92 to 1.81 between 2012 and 2014. Then there is France, where couples looked at the economic slump² and shrugged³. The fertility rate there has barely moved.

在经济状况糟糕至极的国家中，如希腊和意大利，它们的生育率已经下跌。但在平稳度过金融危机的国家中，如澳大利亚和挪威，该指标也下降了。尽管美国出现生育低谷在意料之中，但过了七年也没有得到恢复，着实离奇。“我相当有信心，女性们只是延迟生育，我们将会看到恢复，”约翰逊先生说道。“我现在开始感到好奇。”在英国，生育率下跌得晚了些：2012年至2014年间，生育率从1.92降至1.81。然后在法国，夫妻们看着经济衰落，也表示无奈。但该国的生育率几乎没有发生变化。

If some of the international trends are hard to fathom⁴, so is the strange uniformity within countries. Trude Lappegard, a Norwegian demographer⁵, says that her country's baby bust, which has been going on for six years, might be easy to explain if it had hit one group especially hard. Instead, women of all ages and all levels of education are having fewer children

如果说一些国际趋势很难准确探寻，那么对于国际间奇怪的一致性也很难了解清楚。一位来自挪威名叫褚德兰培格的人口统计学家说道，该国的生育低谷已经持续六年，这可能很容易的解释成是否是特别严重的冲击了某个阶层的女性。但恰恰相反，不同年龄层及受教育程度不同的女性所生育的孩子都越来越少。

One possible explanation is that immigrants are not boosting birth rates much these days, and might even be dragging them down. Some demographers⁶ suggest that cuts to welfare might have made poor mothers warier⁷ of having children. But that does not explain the behaviour of middle-class women. And family support has actually become more generous in some countries with falling fertility.

一个可能的解释是这些年移民并没有提高出生率，甚至有可能拉低出生率。部分人口统计学家称，削减福利可能会使家境贫困的母亲在考虑是否生育小孩这个问题上更加谨慎。但是这不能解释中产阶级女性不生育的行为。另外，在部分生育率下降的国家，家庭支持实际上变得更加充足。

Ann Berrington of Southampton University points to housing. Young and even not-so-young couples find it hard to buy property in England and Wales: 46% of 25- to 34-year-olds lived in private rented accommodation in 2014-15, up from 24% a decade earlier. Four in ten 24-year-olds still live with their parents. Home-ownership rates have fallen in America and Australia, too. The rate is rising in France, where fertility has held steady—though that might be thanks to strong pro-natalist policies.

南安普敦大学的安柏林顿把焦点指向住房。在英格兰和威尔士，对年轻夫妇以及不太年轻的夫妇来说，购买房产很困难：2014-2015年期间，有46%年龄在25-34岁之间的夫妇居住在私人出租屋里，而十年前租房比率为24%。在24岁的年轻人中，有五分之二和父母同住。住房拥有率在美国和澳大利亚也有所下降，然而在生育率保持稳定的法国，住房拥有率却在上升，尽管这有可能归因于法国强有力的鼓励生育的政策。

You can have a baby in a rented flat, of course. But in a country like Britain, where earlier generations found it easy to buy homes, that seems to flout⁸ a psychological rule for some. In the 1960s Richard Easterlin, an American economist⁹, suggested that people would avoid having children if they felt unable to bring them up in a style that at least matched the way they were raised. It might be time to dust off that idea.

当然，你可以在一个出租屋里养育小孩。但是在英国这样的国家，对前几代人来说买房子很容易，这似乎是在嘲笑某种心理规律。在20世纪60年代美国经济学家理查德?伊斯特林提出建议，如果父母们感觉到至少在方式上不能与他们自己从小被养育长大一样，他们就不会生小孩。现在也许是时候放弃这种想法了。

Some couples could be delaying having babies not because they cannot afford them, but because of a vague feeling that family life is harder than it used to be. A Pew poll of 11 rich countries last year found that 64% believe that today's children will be worse off than their parents. Perhaps the gloom has spread even to countries with strong economies. Mr Sobotka suggests that Scandinavians could have overreacted to repeated news reports about hard times elsewhere in Europe. “It gets below people's skins,” he says.

有些夫妇延迟生小孩并不是因为他们没有能力抚育小孩，而是因为他们模模糊糊地感觉到家庭生活会比以往更难。去年，佩尤对11个富裕国家进行的民意调查发现，64%的被调查者相信如今的孩子会比父母更加拮据。也许这种悲观情绪甚至已经蔓延到经济实力强大的国家。索博特卡先生认为斯堪的纳维亚人可能对欧洲以外国家关于困难时期的反复报道反应过度。他说：“这会让人很害怕。”

In this, childbirth might be a little like politics. When a surly, anti-politics mood first took hold in Europe and America after the financial crisis, it was tempting¹⁰ to think it would dissipate as economic growth returned. Today Donald Trump¹¹ is the probable Republican presidential nominee¹² in America, the National Front is rampant¹³ in France and the British government is fighting both Scottish separatism and Europhobia. Bad moods can linger.

在这一点上，生育可能有点像政治。在金融危机之后，阴郁、反政治的氛围笼罩欧洲和美国，人们很容易认为，这种氛围会随着经济恢复增长而消散。如今，唐纳德·特朗普大有希望成为美国共和党总统候选人，在法国，国民阵线肆虐，英国正与苏格兰的分裂主义和排斥欧盟行动相斗争。这阴沉的氛围将久久不散。

Whether and when birth rates bounce back, and how high, has broad consequences. America's Census¹⁴ Bureau simply assumes that current fertility rates will persist. Since 2008 it has slashed¹⁵ its prediction for the country's population in 2050 from 439m to 398m. If lower fertility lasts, it would help balance government accounts in the short term, because there would be fewer children to educate, but hurt in the long term. A fertility rate of 1.8 would mean twice as large an annual social-security deficit¹⁶ by 2089 as one of 2.2, as a percentage of the social-security tax base.

出生率是否会反弹，在什么时候反弹，反弹多少，结果不定。美国人口普查局作出简单假设，目前的生育率将持续一段时间。自2008年以来生育率削减，该国对于2050年的人口预测从4.39亿下降到3.98亿。如果生育率持续低下，在短期来看，将有利于平衡政府收支，因为将会有更少的孩子需要接受教育，但是长期来看损失较大。1.8的生育率意味着到2089年社保赤字将是生育率为2.2的两倍，同时生育率也是社会保障百分比的税基。

A persistent¹⁷ slump would also be bad news for nappy-makers. But the overall effect on the market for baby gear might be surprisingly slight. Marcus Tagesson, the boss of Babyshop, a Stockholm-based retailer¹⁸, says that the important thing is that couples have at least one child. The first baby is the most profitable, he explains. Parents want everything to be new and perfect; besides, they make mistakes with their first-born that they do not repeat. Such as? “White clothes,” says Mr Tagesson, a little ruefully.

生育率持续下降对于尿布湿制造商无疑是个坏消息。但是总的来说对婴儿用品市场的影响可能会小的令人惊讶。宝贝天地（婴儿用品制造商）的老板马库斯是来自斯德哥尔摩的零售商，认为重要的是夫妻至少有一个孩子。他解释道，第一个孩子是最赚钱的。父母希望一切都是崭新的，完美的；此外，父母们不想重复犯他们出生时父母所犯下的错误。例如马库斯有点悲伤地提到的“白衣服”。