2016年经济学人 德意志银行深陷经济漩涡 总裁们手足无措(下)

（单词翻译）

The bank itself reckons that, were it to apply the new Basel 3 rules in full next year, instead of when legally required to do so by 2019, it would have a core Tier-1 capital ratio of 7.2%. That looks skimpy. The bank says it would have plenty of time to build up capital through earnings¹ or that it could take steps to free up capital through asset sales. Still, the risk on many investors’ minds is that the new team may be pushed into issuing shares at a deep discount to its book value.

德行自认为，虽然法律上要求最迟2019年以前落实新巴塞尔协议，倘若自己能在明年完全实施新协议，将获得7.2%的“核心一级”资本比率。德行声称，若果真能如此，自己就会有足够的时间通过收益来累积资本，或是采取销售资产的措施来解放资本。即便如此，众投资者心里担忧挂念的是，新领导团队或许会通过大幅打折来发行低于账面价值的股票。

Regulators are also getting tougher on liquidity². Deutsche’s home regulator is BaFin, the German financial watchdog, but its biggest and riskiest³ trading operations happen in its London branch. Those close to the issue say that Britain’s Financial Services Authority (FSA) frets⁴ that it does not have enough direct control over Deutsche’s London operations because of European Union branching rules. BaFin approves Deutsche’s internal risk models, of which it has little other experience since Deutsche is the only complex bank it supervises. Regular trilateral sessions with the New York Federal Reserve and the FSA are supposed to give comfort on this score, but the FSA is haunted by the collapse⁵ of Lehman Brothers in September 2008, during which $8 billion of liquidity flew to America under the nose of supervisors⁶. The FSA and Bank of England are trying to exert greater control by using their power to set requirements for branch liquidity.

监管机构对流动资产也正采取更为严厉的措施。德国金融监管机构，联邦金融监管局（BaFin）虽是德行在德国本土的监管机构，然而德行伦敦分行的业务却是业务量最大，且风险最高的。知情人士称，英国金融服务监管局（FSA）担心的是，碍于欧盟的分行法规，自己无法对德行伦敦分行的业务进行太多直接控制。监管局对德行内部的风险模式持赞许态度。但因为德行是德国金融监管局监督的唯一一家繁杂银行，监管局对此类风险模式并无其它监督经验。同纽约联邦储备银行、英国金融服务管理局定期举行的三边会议本该在这一方面给予德国金融监管局安慰，然而在2008年9月雷曼兄弟宣布破产之时，英国金融服务管理局眼睁睁看着80亿美元的流动资金从监管人眼皮底下流入美国，此事至今仍在困扰英国金融服务管理局。英国金融服务管理局和英国央行现今正试图利用手中权力，更严格控制分行的流动资产申请。

Fitschen for purpose?

任命费琛，有意为之？

As well as convincing regulators on capital, the new team will have to convince shareholders⁸ about its business model. Investment banking⁹ has been the engine of profits in recent years, but this is the bit of banking where new rules bear down particularly hard (and may bite even harder if Germany were to consider a separation of retail¹⁰ and wholesale¹¹ activities).

新领导团队在资本方面说服监管机构的同时，还需让股东们相信自己的业务模式。投资银行近几年来一直是拉动利润的引擎，而这也正是新巴塞尔协议专门打压的部分。若德国果真将零售银行和批发银行从投资银行中分离出来，那恐怕新协议对投行盯得会更紧。

In their defence, Messrs Fitschen and Jain can point to two strengths. First, Deutsche was quick to appreciate that many areas, such as foreign-exchange and interest-rate swaps¹², were becoming volume (or “flow”) businesses where scale and low costs were paramount¹³. By investing in IT systems to reduce transaction costs, the bank has been able to gain market share. Yet the process of consolidation¹⁴ is well under way; further gains will be harder.

菲茨岑和贾恩两位先生可用以下两条优点来为自己辩护。首先，德行当初很快的意识到，外汇和利率互换等领域在规模和低成本尤为重要的地区正逐渐发展为规模产业或流动性产业。德行通过投资IT系统来削减交易成本，已能够获取市场份额。但是整合过程尚在筹备中，进一步上涨将难以实现。

A second strength has been the bank’s domicile in Germany, which has the lowest borrowing costs of any of the big economies within Europe: on May 23rd Germany auctioned¹⁵ a two-year bond with a coupon¹⁶ of precisely¹⁷ zero. Partly as a result of being in Germany and partly because it is viewed as too big to fail, Deutsche Bank is seen as having a lower risk of default than its peers. That translates into lower funding costs for its investment bank. “Can you hold it against us that we’re in Europe’s safest economy?” quips one executive.

第二个优点是德行的注册地在德国。德国的借贷成本之低，为欧洲其它大型经济体不能及——今年5月23日，德国标售了票面利率恰好为零的两年期公债。部分是因为德行位于德国境内，另一部分是因为德行被看做是大而不倒的机构，与同类银行相比，外界认为德意志银行倒闭风险较低。低借贷成本便转而成为投行部低廉的筹资成本。德行某总裁讥讽道，“我们身处全欧洲最安全的经济体中，您敢跟我们对着干？”

Despite these strengths, Deutsche’s new bosses will need to rebalance the bank’s earnings towards less racy areas such as retail and commercial banking. The bank has a long-standing ambition to earn more than half of its profits from divisions other than investment banking, yet these units have struggled to grow quickly enough to keep pace with Mr Jain’s empire.

除了上述两个优点，德行的新总裁们有必要重新平衡零售银行和商业银行等不活跃领域的收益。德行长久以来的夙愿，是希望除投行部以外的其它部门的收益能占总利润的一半以上。这些部门虽努力提速，想迎头赶上，可事到如今仍未能同贾恩先生的帝国并驾齐驱。

The full acquisition of Deutsche Postbank, which gives the bank a far larger retail presence in Germany, will help shift the balance. It provides the scale for Deutsche to invest in computers and processing systems that, in theory at least, would allow it to build out a cost-competitive retail bank in neighbouring countries. The bank is also investing in its global-transactions service, which helps firms process payments and manage their finances abroad. This is a growing business, particularly in Asia, and one in which only a few big banks have the necessary scale to serve big multinational¹⁸ firms. A third area of focus needs to be on asset and wealth management. Both are lines of business that promise relatively¹⁹ stable income, but which Deutsche has yet to master.

德意志邮政银行可以为德行在德国境内带来更大规模的零售业务，若能全面收购之，将有助于德行调整平衡。德行可借邮政银行的规模，投资电脑，购买系统。至少在理论上，这些系统可以帮助德行在周边邻国建立一个具有成本竞争力的零售银行。德行对自家的国际交易服务也有投资。国际交易服务是一项帮助公司处理支付，管理公司海外财务的业务。该业务成长迅速，在亚洲更是风生水起。而且鲜有大型银行在此项业务上，具备向大型跨国公司提供服务的必要规模。资产管理和财富管理是第三个重点领域。这两个领域是相对稳定收入的保障，而德行至今在上述领域做得不尽人意。

New chief executives usually have a honeymoon²⁰ period in which they can reveal problems and blame them on the old management before having to prove their own worth. Mr Jain and Mr Fitschen may not have this luxury, given the acrimony surrounding their appointment, the impact of the euro crisis on confidence and familiar shareholder⁷ complaints over pay. They will be under immediate²¹ pressure to outline their plans to expand the divisions outside investment banking, while offering reassurance²² about levels of capital. Bankers on both sides of the Atlantic reckon that Deutsche is Europe’s most credible²³ competitor to America’s universal-banking behemoths. But the new team is in a tougher position than that suggests.

新首席执行官们上任后通常都有蜜月期。执行官们可以在证明自己的价值前，彼此相互揭长短，双双痛诉前任错。考虑到自德行任命贾恩和菲茨岑后，周遭尖酸批判声四起，加之欧元危机对信心冲击不断，知情股东对分红怨声连天，两位先生也许无福享受蜜月期。待两人上任之时，将立即面临压力，他们需在保障资本水平的同时，勾勒出除投行部以外，其他部门的拓展计划概况。大西洋两岸的银行家们认为，德行是美国的全能银行巨兽们在欧洲最可信的竞争者。然而，新领导团的处境比银行家们预期的更为艰难。