2019年CRI IMF预测2019年中国经济增长率为6.2%

（单词翻译）

China's economy is expected to grow by 6.2 percent this year and 6 percent in 2020, according to the estimates released yesterday by the International Monetary¹ Fund. The IMF also said that growth in China stabilized³ earlier in the year.

Kenneth Kang is Deputy Director of IMF's Asia & Pacific Department. He suggests that China's policy makers⁴ continue with the economy's structural⁵ reforms, including reforming state-owned enterprises and the opening up of the service sector⁶.

"Liberalizing product and labor⁷ markets and further opening up the service sector would increase competition and flexibility⁸ and allow China to benefit further from globalization. SOE reform should continue and help achieve competitive neutrality by hardening SOE budget constraints⁹ and removing their implicit¹⁰ guarantees. Managing China's increasingly systemic and complex economy requires modernizing¹¹ policy frameworks towards more market-based and transparent¹² frameworks."

He also says that despite the recent tariff¹³ hikes by the United States, the stimulus¹⁴ measures that China has announced so far this year are sufficient to sustain economic growth through 2019 and 2020. However, he also warned that uncertainty¹⁵ around the trade tensions remain high.

"No additional policy easing is needed, provided there are no further increases in tariffs¹⁶ or a significant slowdown in economic growth. Exchange rate flexibility should increase to facilitate adjustment to the new external environment. However, if trade tensions escalate¹⁷ further, putting at risk economic and financial stability, some additional policy easing would be warranted. For example, a fiscal¹⁸ expansion, which is centrally financed, pro-rebalancing, and targeted to low-income households, could be used to stabilize² the economy."

Kang has urged China and the United States to resolve their trade issues by coming to an agreement that supports the international trading system and avoids the outcome of managed trade.

"As we have mentioned many times before, everybody loses in a protracted¹⁹ trade war. If trade is threatened, if trade is damaged, growth will suffer. For these reasons, we encourage all parties involved to work together for a durable²⁰ resolution that supports an open, stable, transparent rules-based international trade system. This is in everyone's interest, including China of course."

The IMF team will deliver its findings to the IMF's Executive Board for further deliberations.

Its statement comes as the World Bank on Tuesday lowered its global growth forecast for the year to 2.6 percent, while maintaining its growth projection²¹ for China at 6.2 percent.

For CRI, this is Li Yi.

国际货币基金组织昨天发布报告，预计今年中国经济增速为6.2%，2020年经济增速为6%。国际货币基金组织还表示，今年中国经济发展会更早趋于稳定。

肯尼思·康是国际货币基金组织亚太区副主任。他建议中国决策者继续推进经济结构改革，包括国有企业改革和进一步开放服务业。

“解放产品和劳动力市场、进一步开放服务行业，有助于刺激竞争、增强活力，也能够让中国更好地从全球化中获益。国有企业改革应该继续进行，同时通过硬约束国有企业预算和削减隐性担保来实现竞争中性。管理中国日趋系统化和复杂化的经济，需要实现现代化的政策框架，建立更加市场化、透明性的政策框架。”

他同时提到，尽管美国最近提高了关税，但中国采取的刺激措施能维持其在2019年和2020年的经济增长。然而，他提醒称，贸易紧张局势并未减弱，不确定性仍然存在。

“如果关税不进一步提高，经济增长不显著放缓，就不需要进一步放松政策。应提高汇率灵活性，以促进对新的外部环境作出调整。如果贸易紧张局势进一步升级，给经济和金融稳定造成风险，中国有必要实施一些额外的政策放松措施。比如，中国可以通过财政扩张稳定经济，这种扩张将由中央财政提供资金，以有利于再平衡的方式实施，并针对低收入家庭。”

肯尼思·康呼吁中美双方通过达成协议来解决贸易问题，这项协议要遵循自愿原则且不能影响国际贸易体系的稳定。

“我们不止一次提到，在长期的贸易战中没有赢家。如果贸易受到威胁和破坏，经济发展就会受影响。为此，我们呼吁各方共同努力，达成一项长期协议，推动建立更加开放、稳定、透明和基于规则的国际贸易体系。这符合包括中国在内的所有国家的利益。”

国际货币基金组织小组将把调查结果提交执行董事会进行审议。

周二，世界银行将今年全球经济增长预测下调至2.6%，将2019年中国经济增长预期维持在6.2%不变。

CRI新闻，李易（音译）报道。