2020年经济学人 恐袭四起,但圣战主义已然走向陨落(3)

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None of the attackers in Dresden, Paris, Nice or Vienna is thought to have reached Iraq or Syria. Though the Dresden suspect had been convicted of recruiting on behalf of IS and downloading terrorist manuals, he is believed to have been radicalised only after arriving in Germany five years ago. Mr Paty’s killer¹ is known to have had contact with a jihadist in Syria, but he never fought there and was not known to the French authorities. The Nice attacker, who had crossed from Tunisia to Italy in late September, had been arrested in Tunisia for using a knife but was not otherwise on the radar² of Tunisian, Italian or French authorities. The problem seems to be less about hardened combat veterans than those with looser ties to the jihadist ecosystem³ turning to violent action.

人们认为，德累斯顿、巴黎、尼斯或维也纳的袭击者都未曾到过伊拉克或叙利亚。尽管德累斯顿袭击事件的嫌犯曾因代表伊斯兰国招募人员，并下载恐怖分子手册而被定罪，但据信，他是在5年前抵达德国后才成为激进分子。据悉，杀害帕蒂的凶手曾与叙利亚的一名圣战分子有过接触，但他从未去过叙利亚参战，法国当局也并不知道他。尼斯事件的袭击者在9月底从突尼斯越境到意大利，他曾在突尼斯持刀而被逮捕，但他并未引起突尼斯、意大利或法国当局的注意。问题似乎不在于那些参与冷酷战斗的老兵，而在于那些与圣战系统关系松散，却能转而采取暴力行动的人。

Propaganda remains⁴ a serious issue, too. Large caches of material inciting⁵ and glorifying⁶ terrorism continue to circulate freely online, says Julian King, who served as European commissioner⁷ for security until January. The European Parliament has been sitting on proposals for Europewide action to remove online propaganda for almost two years, he says.

宣传问题依旧严峻。朱利安·金表示，大量煽动性或美化恐怖主义的材料仍在网上自由传播。朱利安·金曾担任欧盟安全联盟专员，直到今年一月。他说，欧洲议会近两年来一直在拖延通过有关在欧洲范围内采取行动删除网上宣传材料的提议。

The recent attacks also highlight another worrying pattern. Mr Fejzulaiwas let out of prison early; the Dresden suspect had been released only five days before his attack. That reflects a wider failure of counter- terrorism policy, as does the fact that Mr Fejzulai had completed a deradicalisation programme that was evidently unsuccessful. “In many European countries the priority was to get people locked up,” says Peter Neumann of King’s College London, “and then to forget about them, with many becoming further radicalised in prison.”

最近爆发的袭击事件也凸显了另一个令人担忧的模式。费祖莱被提前释放出狱；德累斯顿事件的嫌犯在发动袭击的五天之前才被释放。这反映了反恐政策的普遍失败。事实上，费祖莱完成了一次显然并不成功的去极端化改造。“在许多欧洲国家，当务之急是把人关起来，”伦敦国王学院的彼得·纽曼说，“然后就忘掉了他们，而许多人在监狱里会变得更加激进。”