2020年经济学人 拜拜美国(2)

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The price tag on BBVA's American franchise¹ amounts to about 30 times its projected earnings² in 2021, according to analysts³ at UBS, a bank. That is a lot for a unit that has long underperformed, posting returns on equity⁴ of around 6-7% (BBVA's Mexican arm, which is comparable in terms of risk-weighted assets, routinely produces returns of 20% or more). But PNC has demonstrated a knack⁵ for turning round ailing⁶ ventures, notably⁷ the American arm of RBC, a Canadian bank, which it snapped up in 2012. Investors⁸ seem confi- dent⁹ PNC can repeat the trick: the bank's share price rose by 3% on the day the deal was announced.

据瑞士联合银行(UBS)的分析师称，BBVA在美国的特许经营费用大约是其2021年预期收益的30倍。对于一个长期表现不佳的部门来说这是一个不小的数字，其净资产收益率约为6-7%(BBVA的墨西哥分支，其风险加权资产可与之比较，通常回报率为20%或更高)。但PNC已经展示了其扭转风险的能力，尤其是在2012年收购的加拿大皇家银行(RBC)的美国分部。投资者似乎确信PNC可以再一次上演这个把戏：该银行的股价在交易宣布当天上涨了3%。

BBVA's investors were even more enthusiastic. Its share price jumped by 20% on the day. Britta Schmidt of Autonomous¹⁰, a research firm, estimates the net value gained at about 8bn Euros($9.5bn), or 40% of the bank's market capitalisation. The sale will shore up its core-capital ratio by nearly three percentage points, to 14.5%, well above the level demanded by regulators.

BBVA的投资者甚至更加热情，它的股价当天上涨了20%。一家名为Autonomous的研究公司的布里塔·施密特估计，该公司的净资产收益约为80亿欧元(95亿美元)，相当于该银行市值的40%。此次出售将使其核心资本比率提高近3个百分点，达到14.5%，远高于监管机构要求的水平。

A chunk¹¹ of the bounty¹² may go towards acquisitions closer to home, fuelling a long-awaited wave of consolidation¹³ in Europe's overbanked markets. BBVA's American exit makes its portfolio¹⁴ disproportionately exposed to emerging markets, giving it a reason to invest at home. It may also help that, since July, the European Central Bank has encouraged banks to recognise an accounting¹⁵ gain, known as negative goodwill¹⁶, which they generate when they buy a rival at a lower price than the book value of its assets. Such "badwill", in turn, can be used to offset¹⁷ restructuring charges. Investors seem to believe that BBVA's talks with Sabadell will succeed: Sabadell's share price jumped by 16% on the PNC news, and a further 9% after PNC and BBVA said that due diligence had begun.

这笔收入的绝大部分可能会流向更靠近本土的收购，从而在银行过度扩张的欧洲市场掀起一波期待已久的整合浪潮。BBVA退出美国市场使其投资组合不成比例地暴露在新兴市场，这给了它在国内投资的理由。自7月以来，欧洲央行(ECB)鼓励各银行承认一种名为“负商誉”的会计收益(银行以低于其资产账面价值的价格收购竞争对手时产生的收益)，这或许也起到一定作用。反过来，这种“不良意愿”可以用来抵消重组费用。投资者似乎相信BBVA与Sabadell的谈判将会成功：在PNC的消息传出后，Sabadell的股价上涨了16%，而在PNC和BBVA表示尽职调查已经开始后，Sabadell的股价又上涨了9%。

Transatlantic divestitures, meanwhile, will probably continue. European banks operating in America should either go big or give up, says Adrian Cighi of Credit Suisse, a bank. Analysts expect HSBC, Europe's largest bank by assets, to signal a partial exit when it releases its results in February. Santander and BNP Paribas, the other European banks with a big American presence, say they do not want to sell. The PNC deal, however, may make shareholders¹⁸ think focus is not such a bad idea.

与此同时，跨大西洋的资产剥离可能会继续下去。瑞士信贷银行的艾德里安·奇吉表示，在美国经营的欧洲银行要么做大要么放弃。分析师预计，欧洲资产规模最大的银行汇丰(HSBC)将在2月份公布业绩时发出部分退出的信号。桑坦德银行(Santander)和法国巴黎银行(BNP Paribas)是另外两家在美国拥有大量业务的欧洲银行，它们表示不想出售。然而，PNC交易可能会让股东认为“专注”并不是一个坏主意。