2022年经济学人 乌克兰的战争到底什么时候能结束？(2)

（单词翻译）

There would ideally be a return to the line of February 24th; “pursuing the war beyond that point would not be about the freedom of Ukraine, but a new war against Russia itself,” he declared at the World Economic Forum¹, a talkfest in Davos.

理想的情况是回到2月24日；他在达沃斯举行的世界经济论坛上宣称，“在这一分水岭之外继续进行战争将不是乌克兰的自由，而是针对俄罗斯本身的新战争。”

Russia, he said, had an important role to play in Europe’s balance of power; it should not be pushed into a “permanent alliance” with China.

他说，俄罗斯在欧洲的力量平衡中扮演着重要的角色；它不应该被推入与中国的“永久联盟”。

For now, such cracks in the West are contained by the mantra that the future is for Ukrainians to decide.

就目前而言，西方的这种裂痕被“未来由乌克兰人来决定”的信条所遏制。

Yet Ukraine’s choices are in turn shaped by what the West will provide.

然而，乌克兰的选择又取决于西方将提供什么。

“Europe, the world at large, should be united. We are as strong as you are united,” Mr Zelensky told a meeting at Davos.

欧洲，乃至全世界，都应该团结一致。我们和你们一样强大，“泽伦斯基在达沃斯的一次会议上表示。

He said that “Ukraine will be fighting until it gains all its territory back.”

他说：“乌克兰将继续战斗，直到夺回所有领土。

But he also seemed to leave himself space for compromise.

但他似乎也给自己留下了妥协的空间。

Talks with Russia, he said, could begin once it withdraws to the line of February 24th.

他说，一旦俄罗斯退回到2月24日的界线，与俄罗斯的谈判就可以开始。

America, Europe and Ukraine have to keep adjusting their positions according to what each thinks the other will accept.

美国、欧洲和乌克兰必须根据各自认为对方会接受的情况来调整各自的立场。

“The Ukrainians are negotiating with their Western partners as much as, and probably more than, they’re negotiating with the Russians,” says Olga Oliker of the International Crisis Group, a think-tank.

智囊团国际危机组织的奥尔加·奥利克表示：“乌克兰人与西方伙伴的谈判和与俄罗斯人的谈判一样多，甚至可能更多。”

The fuzziness also reflects the uncertainties² of war.

这种模糊性也反映了战争的不确定性。

Is Ukraine winning, because it saved Kyiv and pushed Russia back from Kharkiv; or is it losing, because Russia has taken Mariupol and may soon encircle Severodonetsk?

乌克兰赢了？因为它拯救了基辅，把俄罗斯从哈尔科夫赶走了；还是输了？因为俄罗斯占领了马里乌波尔，可能很快就会包围塞北顿涅茨克。

The peace party worries that the longer the fighting goes on, the greater the human and economic cost to Ukraine and the rest of the world.

和平党担心，战斗持续的时间越长，乌克兰和世界其他地区付出的人力和经济代价就越大。

The justice camp retorts that sanctions on Russia are just starting to bite; with more time and more and better weapons Ukraine can win.

正义党反驳说，对俄罗斯的制裁才刚刚开始奏效；有更多的时间和更多更好的武器，乌克兰就能获胜。

Behind all this lie two contradictory³ worries.

在这一切的背后，隐藏着两个相互矛盾的担忧。

One is that Russian forces are still strong and will prevail in a grinding war.

其一，俄罗斯军队仍然强大，并将在一场残酷的战争中获胜。

The other is that they are brittle⁴.

另一个是它们很脆弱。

If routed, Russia could lash⁵ out at nato, or resort to chemical or even nuclear weapons to avoid defeat.

如果被击败，俄罗斯可能会猛烈抨击北约，或者诉诸化学武器甚至核武器来避免失败。

In the long term, says Emmanuel Macron, the French president, Europe will need to find a way of living with Russia.

法国总统埃马纽埃尔·马克龙表示，从长远来看，欧洲需要找到一种与俄罗斯共处的方式。

Estonia’s prime minister, Kaja Kallas, retorts, “It is much more dangerous giving in to Putin than provoking him.”

爱沙尼亚总理卡娅·卡拉斯反驳说：“向普京让步比激怒他危险得多。”

American and European officials have quietly been helping⁶ Ukraine develop negotiating positions.

美国和欧洲官员一直在悄悄地帮助乌克兰确立谈判立场。

One point is its demand for security guarantees from the West.

其一是，它要求西方提供安全保障。

Short of a promise to defend Ukraine directly, ideas include the ability to “snap back” any sanctions on Russia that are lifted; and rearming Ukraine quickly if it is attacked again.

在没有承诺直接保卫乌克兰的情况下，这些想法包括“迅速还击”解除对俄罗斯的任何制裁的能力；以及如果乌克兰再次受到攻击，迅速重新武装乌克兰。

Right now, Ukraine is reasonably optimistic.

目前，乌克兰相当乐观。

It has denied Russia an easy conquest, and new Western weapons are appearing on the front lines.

它否认了征服俄罗斯的容易，新的西方武器正在前线出现。

But speaking from the sandbagged presidential headquarters, Mykhailo Podolyak, Mr Zelensky’s chief negotiator, says he is increasingly concerned by the “fatigue” in some European countries.

但泽连斯基的首席谈判代表米哈伊洛·波多利亚克在被沙袋包裹的总统总部发表讲话时表示，他越来越担心一些欧洲国家的“疲惫”。

“They don’t say it directly, but it feels like an attempt to force us to capitulate.

他们没有直接说出来，但感觉像是在迫使我们投降。

Any ceasefire means a frozen conflict.”

任何停火都意味着一场冻结的冲突。

He also complained of “inertia” in Washington: weapons are not arriving in the quantities Ukraine needs.

他还抱怨华盛顿方面的“惰性”：乌克兰需要的武器数量没有送达。

When the war ends will depend in large part on Russia.

战争何时结束将在很大程度上取决于俄罗斯。

It is in no hurry for a ceasefire.

它并不急于停火。

It seems determined⁷ to conquer all of the Donbas in the east, and talks of taking more land in the west.

它似乎决心征服东部的所有顿巴斯人，并扬言要在西部夺取更多土地。

“The paradox⁸ of the situation is that both sides still believe they can win,” says Volodymyr Fesenko, a political analyst⁹ in Kyiv.

基辅的一位政治分析家弗洛迪米尔·费森科说：“局势的矛盾之处在于，双方仍然相信自己能赢。”

“Only if we really reach a stalemate, and Moscow and Kyiv recognise it as such, can any talk of compromise be possible.

莫斯科和基辅也承认这一点，只有我们真的陷入僵局，才有可能进行任何妥协的谈判。

Even then, it is likely to be temporary.”

即使到那时，也只是暂时的。