2022年经济学人 炙手可热的房地产（2）

（单词翻译）

The trend has also spread to Europe.

这一趋势也蔓延到了欧洲。

Investors¹ such as Aviva and Legal & General are building thousands of rental² homes across Britain, which now has more than 73,000 “build to rent” properties.

英杰华集团和英国法通保险公司等投资者正在英国各地建造数千套租赁住房，目前英国有超过7.3万套“为租而建”的房产。

Institutional investors are also gobbling up property in Germany, Ireland, the Netherlands and the Nordic markets, which have higher shares of renters than other rich countries.

机构投资者也在大举买入德国、爱尔兰、荷兰和北欧市场的房地产，这些市场的租赁人比例高于其他富裕国家。

What’s behind the explosive growth?

这种爆炸性增长背后的原因是什么？

One explanation is that ageing millennials offer a growing market.

一种解释是，老龄化的千禧一代提供了一个不断增长的市场。

As they approach their late 30s and early 40s—a sweet spot for landlords—many want better schools for their children or space for pets, or finally have enough money to dump their housemates.

当他们快到40岁左右（成为房东的最佳年龄）时，许多人希望让孩子上更好的学校，或者为宠物提供空间，或者终于有足够的钱来摆脱合租。

In America, population growth in this age category will nearly double over the next five years.

在美国，这一年龄段的人口增长将在未来五年内增长近一倍。

Ageing baby-boomers are also renting in higher numbers.

年纪渐长的婴儿潮一代中也有更多的人租房。

In England, the proportion of those aged³ 55 to 64 who are renting has almost doubled since 2011.

在英格兰，55岁至64岁的租房人口比例自2011年以来几乎翻了一番。

Declining housing affordability⁴ helps.

住房负担能力的下降起到了帮助作用。

Those unable to buy homes have little choice but to rent, meaning landlords are confident of their ability to find and keep new tenants⁵, especially for entry-level homes.

那些买不起房的人别无选择，只能租房，因此房东有信心能够找到并留住新的租户，特别是最低层次住房的租户。

In America, at least 420,000 starter homes were built each year in the 1970s.

20世纪70年代时，美国每年至少建造42万套首购屋。

Last year, just 93,000 were.

而去年只有9.3万套。

Thus rents continue to climb.

因此，租金继续攀升。

Across the country, those for family homes rose by more than 13% in June compared with a year earlier.

全美6月份家庭住宅的租金同比上涨了13%以上。

In Orlando, they were up by 23%.

奥兰多的租金上涨了23%。

In Miami, by more than a third.

迈阿密上涨了三分之一以上。

Despite rising rents, Wall Street landlords are not immune to economic uncertainty⁶.

尽管租金不断上涨，华尔街的房东依旧受到了经济不确定性的影响。

Inflation means the cost of renovating⁷ and maintaining homes is rising.

通货膨胀导致翻新和维护房屋的成本不断上升。

Invitation Homes says the amount it spent on these things rose by nearly 8% in the second quarter of this year.

Invitation Homes称，今年第二季度，该公司在这些方面的支出增长了近8%。

Construction costs have also risen, posing risk for investors building from scratch.

建筑成本也有所上升，给白手起家的投资者带来了风险。

Prices for building materials, including concrete, lumber⁸ and steel, have surged by 38% since the start of 2020.

自2020年初以来，包括混凝土、木材和钢材在内的建筑材料价格飙升了38%。

Interest-rate rises are another worry; as the market softens⁹, investors are taking a more cautious approach.

利率上升是另一个令人担忧的问题；随着市场走软，投资者正在采取更为谨慎的做法。

Home Partners of America, owned by Blackstone, announced in August that it would pause home purchases in 38 cities, markets that represent 5% of its activity.

黑石集团旗下的Home Partners of America在8月份宣布，将暂停在38个城市的购房活动，这些交易占其活动的5%。

Economic cycles are inevitable¹⁰.

经济周期是不可避免的。

Rents are unlikely to continue to climb at a record pace.

租金不太可能继续以创纪录的速度攀升。

Yet history suggests that residential¹¹ rents are more resilient than those from other property types, especially in periods when supply is tight.

然而，历史表明，住宅租金比其他房地产类型的租金更具弹性，特别是在供应紧张的时期。

From 1974 to 1985, another period of high inflation, rents actually increased by 7-12% a year, notes Jay Parsons, an economist¹² at RealPage, a data firm.

数据公司RealPage的经济学家杰伊·帕森斯指出，1974年到1985年（另一个高通胀时期）间，租金实际上每年上涨7%-12%。

Even as homebuyer demand crashed during the global financial crisis, demand from residential tenants did not waver.

即使在全球金融危机期间，购房者需求急剧下降，住宅租户的需求也没有减弱。

Although the housing splurge of institutional investors may calm a bit, it is unlikely to cease.

尽管机构投资者的购房热潮可能会稍稍平息，却不太可能完全停止。