2022年经济学人 滞后带来的拖累（2）

（单词翻译）

Moreover, an increase in central-bank’s transparency may be compressing lags.

此外，央行透明度的提高可能会缩短滞后时间。

In America mortgage rates had increased by a full percentage point even before the Fed had raised short-term rates.

在美国，甚至在美联储提高短期利率之前，抵押贷款利率就已经上升了整整一个百分点。

This has not happened in previous cycles, and represents the fastest pricing-in of expectations in at least four decades.

这在之前的经济周期中从未发生过，而且是至少40年来最快的预期定价。

As a result, the housing market has had at least half a year to respond to higher mortgage rates.

房地产市场因此至少有半年的时间来应对抵押贷款利率的上升。

Sure enough, home sales, prices and new construction have all started to fall.

果不其然，房屋销售量、价格和新开工量都开始下降。

In a way, the Fed is lagging the market: its rate increases are, in part, ratifying¹ expectations that are already influencing activity.

在某种程度上，美联储正在落后于市场：它的加息措施在一定程度上是在认可已经在影响经济活动的预期。

None of this is to minimise the risk from lags.

所有这些都不是为了将滞后带来的风险降至最低。

Friedman believed they all but doomed² counter-cyclical interventions³.

弗里德曼认为，它们几乎注定了反周期干预的失败。

He viewed such attempts as “disturbances with a peculiarly high potential for mischief⁴”.

他认为这样的尝试是“极有可能造成危害的干扰”。

Central bankers are more confident.

而央行官员们对此的信心要高一些。

But persistent⁵ inflation does underscore Friedman’s point about the challenges of getting policy right, whether tightening⁶ or easing.

但持续的通胀确实突显了弗里德曼观点的重要性，即无论是紧缩还是宽松政策，正确实施政策都具有挑战性。

Today’s woes⁷ stem, in part, from aggressive stimulus⁸ in 2020 and 2021.

今天的困境部分源于2020年和2021年的激进刺激政策。

The mischief, in other words, can cut both ways.

换言之，这种干扰可以在两方面都起作用。

Doves worry that excessive tightening will lead to a bad recession.

鸽派担心过度紧缩将导致严重的经济衰退。

Hawks⁹ fear that a premature¹⁰ halt will lead to continued bad inflation.

而鹰派担心，过早停止加息将导致持续的恶性通胀。

Both worry the Fed will get its timing¹¹ wrong again, just in diametrically opposite directions.

两方都担心美联储会再次抓错时机，只不过担心的方向截然相反。