2022年经济学人 通货膨胀：更快、更高、更长(1)

（单词翻译）

Finance & economics

财经板块

Inflation: Faster, higher, longer

通货膨胀：更快、更高、更长

The Fed delivers another jumbo rate rise, and it’s far from done

美联储再次大幅加息，而这离结束还早着呢

As recently as the start of June investors¹ and analysts² believed that a “jumbo” interest-rate rise for the Federal Reserve meant half a percentage point.

就在6月初，投资者和分析师还认为，0.5个百分点对美联储来说就算是“巨幅”加息了。

How quaint³.

真是老古董。

After four straight increases of three-quarters of a percentage point—the latest on November 2nd—perceptions have changed.

在连续四次加息0.75个百分点(最近一次是在11月2日)之后，他们的看法发生了变化。

Indeed, a stockmarket rally in the two weeks before the announcement was rooted in the belief that the Fed may scale down to a half-point rate increase at its next meeting in December.

事实上，在美联储宣布加息之前的两周里，股市反弹的根源在于人们相信，美联储可能会在12月的下次会议上将加息幅度缩小至半个百分点。

What was once jumbo is now moderate.

曾经的巨幅加息现在变得温和起来。

Whether the Fed will in fact downshift to a half-point increase is a matter for debate.

美联储是否真的会将加息幅度降至0.5个百分点还有待讨论。

Bond pricing assigns roughly even odds⁴ to the central bank opting⁵ for that smaller increment⁶ versus⁷ yet another three-quarter-point increase.

受债券定价影响，央行选择较小幅加息的几率，和选择再次加息0.75个百分点的几率大致相同。

At a news conference following the Fed’s latest move, Jerome Powell, the central bank’s chairman, resisted tipping his hand in either direction.

在美联储最近一次举措后举行的新闻发布会上，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔拒绝就任何一个方向进行预测。

And for good reason: inflation figures for both October and November will be published before the Fed’s next meeting, and go a long way to determining what it does.

理由很充分：10月份和11月份的通胀数据都将在美联储下次会议之前公布，而这会对美联储的行动有很大的影响。

There is little sense in guessing the outcome before seeing that data.

所以在看到这些数据之前进行猜测没有什么意义。

But the focus on the size of the rise is also too narrow.

但对涨幅的关注也过于狭隘。

As Mr Powell notes, the Fed’s tightening⁸ of monetary⁹ policy can be looked at in three dimensions: how quickly it raises rates, how high it raises them and how long it then keeps them there.

正如鲍威尔所指出的那样，美联储的收紧货币政策可以从三个维度来考察：加息的速度有多快、加息的幅度有多高以及维持利率的时间有多长。

The first dimension is already clear.

第一个维度已经很清楚了。

Although the Fed was late in launching its rate-rise cycle, it has moved with alacrity¹⁰ since starting, raising short-term borrowing rates from 0% in March to 3.75% now—its most aggressive increase in four decades.

尽管美联储启动加息周期的时间较晚，但它自加息以来一直行动迅速，将短期借款利率从3月份的0%上调至目前的3.75%，这是40年来最激进的加息。