2023年经济学人 日本央行令投资者震惊（1）

（单词翻译）

    Finance & economics

    财经板块

    Monetary¹ policy: No time like the present货币政策：机不可失，时不再来

    The Bank of Japan shocks investors²

    日本央行令投资者震惊

    In recent months anticipation³ had grown that in 2023 the Bank of Japan (BOJ) would at last tighten⁴ monetary policy after years of no-holds-barred stimulus⁵.

    近几个月来，越来越多的人预计，在经过多年不加限制的刺激措施之后，日本银行(BOJ)最终将在2023年收紧货币政策。

    Almost nobody expected it to happen in 2022.

    几乎没有人预料到这会在2022年发生。

    But on December 20th the bank lifted its cap on ten-year government-bond yields from 0.25% to 0.5%.

    但在12月20日，日本央行将十年期政府债券收益率的上限从0.25%提高到了0.5%。

    The Christmas surprise caused the yen⁶ to surge—and set off speculation⁷ about what might come next.

    圣诞节的这一惊喜导致日元飙升，并引发了人们对接下来可能发生的事情的猜测。

    Since 2016 the BOJ has intervened in bond markets to keep the ten-year bond yield at around 0%, a policy known as “yield-curve control”.

    2016年以来，日本央行一直在干预债券市场，将十年期债券收益率保持在0%左右，这一政策被称为“收益率曲线控制”。

    Technically⁸, the bank permitted fluctuations⁹ of a quarter of a percentage point around the 0% goal.

    严格来说，日本央行允许在0%的目标附近波动0.25个百分点。

    But the upper limit of 0.25% is what mattered, especially this year, as upward pressure on yields built around the globe.

    但0.25%的上限才是最重要的，特别是今年，因为全球收益率上升的压力都越来越大。

    Now the BOJ will allow moves of half a percentage point around zero.

    现在，日本央行将允许在零附近波动0.5个百分点。

    After the announcement, the ten-year bond yield surged from 0.25% to 0.4%, its biggest daily shift since 2003.

    消息公布后，日本10年期国债的收益率从0.25%飙升到了0.4%，这是2003年以来的最大单日波动。

    The BOJ had been a global outlier, maintaining ultra-loose policy even as America’s Federal Reserve and other central banks chose to raise interest rates sharply.

    日本央行一直是全球的异类，即使在美国联邦储备委员会和其他央行选择大幅提高利率的情况下，日本央行仍维持超宽松政策。

    Japan’s benchmark interest rate of -0.1% has not moved in almost seven years and the bank owns over half of the government bond market.

    日本的基准利率为-0.1%，近七年来一直没有变动，日本央行拥有超过一半的政府债券市场。

    Yield-curve control was implemented¹⁰ as a way of allowing the BOJ to control long-term interest rates without running out of bonds to buy.

    实施收益率曲线控制，是为了让日本央行能够控制长期利率，而不会耗尽可购买的债券。

    Paradoxically, when central banks credibly¹¹ promise to peg¹² the price of an asset, they often need not intervene much to enforce the policy.

    矛盾的是，当央行信誓旦旦地承诺会固定资产价格时，他们通常不需要太多干预就能执行这一政策。

    The market implements¹³ the peg by itself.

    市场会自行固定价格。