2023年经济学人 日本央行令投资者震惊（2）

（单词翻译）

    For most of the policy’s history that more or less worked.

    在以往执行该政策的大部分时间里，这种做法或多或少地发挥了作用。

    In 2022, however, the peg¹ has come under considerable pressure as traders have speculated that monetary² policy would need to be tightened³.

    然而，在2022年，由于交易员猜测货币政策将需要收紧，价格固定面临着相当大的压力。

    The chasm⁴ between the policies of Japan and those in the rest of the rich world caused the yen⁵ to plunge⁶ by 23% against the dollar from the start of 2022 to mid-October.

    从2022年初到10月中旬，日本和其他发达国家政策之间的鸿沟导致日元兑美元汇率暴跌了23%。

    In October, annual inflation was 3.6%, a 40-year high and well above the BOJ’s 2% target.

    10月份的年通胀率为3.6%，为40年来的最高水平，远高于日本央行2%的目标。

    Though most of the inflation was imported, many central banks have been caught out since the covid-19 pandemic by assuming price growth will cool without tighter monetary policy.

    尽管大部分通胀是输入性的，但自从新冠肺炎疫情至今，许多央行陷入了困境，因为它们认为，不收紧货币政策，物价上涨也会降温。

    Yet it was widely assumed that any pivot⁷ by the BOJ would come after its current governor, Kuroda Haruhiko, leaves in April.

    然而，人们普遍认为，日本央行的任何转向都将在现任行长黑田东彦4月份离职之后发生。

    That policymakers moved faster makes sense: it spares the BOJ months of bond-buying to enforce the old cap, and the greater losses it would endure on its bigger bond portfolio⁸.

    政策制定者采取更快的行动是有道理的：这使得日本央行不必花几个月的时间购买债券来执行旧的上限，也不必承受其更大债券投资组合上的更多损失。

    How far will Japan’s central bank now go?

    日本央行现在会走多远？

    After the announcement the dollar fell by 3.4% against the yen, but the Japanese currency remains⁹ at its weakest level in two decades.

    声明公布后，美元兑日元汇率下跌了3.4%，但日元汇率仍处于20年来的最低水平。

    Economists¹⁰ are watching the shunto, Japan’s springtime wage negotiations¹¹ between large companies and trade unions, for more signs of inflation.

    经济学家正在关注大公司和工会之间的日本春季劳资谈判--春斗，以寻找更多通胀迹象。

    Japanese firms raised winter bonuses by 9.7%, according to Nikkei, a business newspaper, the largest such increase since 1975.

    据商业报纸《日本经济新闻》报道，日本企业将冬季奖金提高了9.7%，这是1975年以来的最大增幅。

    Mr Kuroda claims that he has not tightened monetary policy, only responded to volatile¹² market conditions.

    黑田东彦声称，他没有收紧货币政策，只是对动荡的市场状况做出了反应。

    Yet the announcement was his “sayonara present”, according to Jesper Koll of Monex Group, a Japanese brokerage.

    然而，根据日本经纪公司莫尼克斯集团杰斯珀·科尔的说法，这一声明是他的“告别礼物”。

    “It opens the door for ‘Operation Freedom’ for whoever his successor will be.”

    “这为他的继任者开启了‘自由行动’的大门。”

    Japanese financial markets could be in for a turbulent 2023.

    日本金融市场可能会在2023年陷入动荡。