2023年经济学人 2023可能和2022差不多糟（2）

（单词翻译）

    Moreover, today’s valuations were reached during an unusual period: one in which central banks pumped endless liquidity¹ into the market via quantitative² easing (QE).

    此外，今天的估值是在一个不同寻常的时期实现的：在这个时期，各国央行通过量化宽松(QE)向市场注入了无尽的流动性。

    By buying government bonds with newly created money, the Fed and others depressed³ yields and nudged investors⁴ to seek returns in riskier⁵ assets, like stocks.

    通过用新创造的货币购买政府债券，美联储和其他机构压低了收益率，促使投资者在股票等风险较高的资产中寻求回报。

    Now these QE programmes are being kicked into reverse.

    现在，这些量化宽松计划正在被逆转。

    One consequence is that governments will rely much more on private investors to hold their debt.

    一个后果是，各国政府将更多地依赖私人投资者来持有其债务。

    In the fiscal⁶ year of 2022-23, America’s Treasury⁷ may need to borrow almost twice as much from investors as it did during each of the two years preceding the covid-19 pandemic, and four times the average in the five years before that.

    在2022-23财年，美国财政部可能需要从投资者那里借入的资金，几乎是新冠肺炎疫情暴发前两年每年水平的两倍，是之前五年平均水平的四倍。

    Even without central banks raising short-term interest rates, this glut⁸ could drive bond prices down and yields up.

    即使各国央行不提高短期利率，这种过剩也可能压低债券价格，推高收益率。

    Just as in 2022, stocks would therefore be left looking less attractive by comparison.

    与2022年一样，相比之下，股票看起来就不那么有吸引力了。

    The final reason for gloom is a divergence⁹ between economists¹⁰ and investors.

    悲观的最后一个原因是经济学家和投资者之间的分歧。

    Although wonks are betting on a recession, many punters still hope one can be avoided.

    尽管书呆子们押注于经济衰退，但许多投机者仍希望经济衰退能够避免。

    Markets expect the Fed’s benchmark rate to hit a peak of below 5% in the first half of this year, before declining.

    市场预计美联储的基准利率将在今年上半年达到低于5%的峰值，然后开始下降。

    The central bank’s governors disagree.

    央行行长们对此持不同意见。

    They project that the interest rate will end the year above 5%.

    他们预计今年年底利率将超过5%。

    Thus investors are betting either that inflation will fall to target more quickly than the Fed expects, or that the monetary¹¹ guardians¹² do not have the heart to inflict¹³ the pain it would take to get it down.

    因此，投资者要么押注通胀降至目标的速度将比美联储预期的更快，要么押注货币监管机构没有勇气承受降低通胀所需的痛苦。

    There is, of course, a chance they will be proved right.

    当然，他们有可能被证明是正确的。

    But markets spent much of 2022 underestimating the Fed’s hawkishness¹⁴, only to be put in their place by Jerome Powell, the central bank’s governor, at meeting after meeting.

    但在2022年的大部分时间里，市场都低估了美联储的鹰派强硬手段，最终让美联储行长杰罗姆·鲍威尔在一次又一次的会议上提醒市场注意自己的位置。

    If the pattern repeats, 2023 will be another miserable¹⁵ year for investors.

    如果这种模式重演，2023年对投资者来说将又是悲惨的一年。