2023年经济学人 为什么西方的就业奇迹会持续下去(1)

（单词翻译）

 

 

    Finance & economics

    财经版块

    The new economics of work

    新型工作经济学

    Jobs for all

    全民就业

    Why the west's employment miracle looks likely to continue.

    为什么西方的就业奇迹可能会持续下去。

    To see what a world swimming in jobs looks like, visit Japan.

    要想看看一个遍地都是工作的世界是什么样子，那就去日本吧。

    At airports staff straighten suitcases after they tumble onto the carousel¹.

    在机场，行李箱跌落到传送带上后，工作人员把它们摆整齐。

    Men with fluorescent² batons³ stand near construction sites, reminding you not to walk onto the site.

    手持荧光警棍的男子站在建筑工地附近，提醒你不要走进工地。

    In department stores smartly dressed women help you use the lifts.

    在百货公司里，衣着体面的女子会帮你乘电梯。

    And in one of Tokyo’s best bars, a team of four prepared your correspondent’s gin martini (from the freezer, of course, free-poured, and very dry).

    在东京最好的一个酒吧里，一个四人团队为您的记者调制杜松子酒马提尼(当然是从冰箱里拿出来，然后直接倒进杯子的，而且非常干)。

    Now the rest of the rich world is starting to look more Japanese.

    现在，富裕世界的其他国家开始变得更像日本。

    Since the heady post-lockdown days of 2021 GDP growth across the 38 countries of the OECD has slowed almost to a standstill, and in some countries is negative.

    自2021年结束封控后那些激动人心的日子以来，经合组织38个国家的GDP增长已经放缓至几近停滞，一些国家甚至出现了负增长。

    Business confidence is below its long-run average.

    企业信心低于长期平均水平。

    Yet there is not much sign of weakness in the labour market.

    然而，劳动力市场并没有太多疲软的迹象。

    On March 7th Jerome Powell, chairman of the Federal Reserve, observed that in America, “despite the slowdown in growth, the labour market remains⁴ extremely tight.”

    3月7日，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔指出，在美国，“尽管增长放缓，但劳动力市场依然严重供不应求”。

    Across the OECD as a whole the unemployment rate was 4.9% in December—the lowest in many decades.

    整个经合组织12月份的失业率为4.9%，是几十年来的最低水平。

    From the third to the fourth quarter of the year, the rich world added about 1m jobs, in line with the long-run average.

    从去年第三季度到第四季度，富裕国家新增了约100万个就业岗位，与长期平均水平一致。

    In half of OECD countries, including Canada, France and Germany, there has never been a higher share of working-age folk in a job.

    经合组织一半的国家，包括加拿大、法国和德国，处于工作状态的劳动年龄人口占比从未像现在这样高。

    Joblessness is rising in a few countries, including Austria and Israel.

    少数几个国家的失业率正在上升，包括奥地利和以色列。

    One of the worst performers is Finland, where the unemployment rate has risen by a percentage point from its post-lockdown low.

    表现最差的国家之一是芬兰，该国的失业率已经从后封控时期的低水平上升了一个百分点。

    In the face of soaring energy prices and reduced trade with Russia, the country’s GDP fell by 0.6% in the fourth quarter of 2022.

    在能源价格飙升和对俄贸易减少的情况下，芬兰2022年第四季度的GDP下降了0.6%。

    But “worst” is relative.

    但“最差”是相对的。

    At 7.1% in January, Finland’s jobless rate is still well below its long-run average.

    芬兰1月份的失业率为7.1%，仍远低于长期平均水平。

    Meanwhile, most of the places synonymous with the sky-high joblessness of the early 2010s—Greece, Italy, Spain—are doing much better now.

    与此同时，希腊、意大利、西班牙等大多数地方如今的就业情况也要好很多，这些地方在2010年代初是失业率极高的代名词。

    This employment miracle hints at a change in Western economies.

    这一就业奇迹暗示着西方经济发生了变化。

    To understand why, return to Japan.

    要了解其中原因，请回到日本。

    Local employers dislike firing workers, even if they have little for them to do.

    当地雇主不喜欢解雇员工，即使他们没多少事要让员工们做。

    In part because more and more people are retiring, firms struggle for new staff and are reluctant to let people go unless they have no choice.

    部分原因是越来越多的人在退休，公司很难招到新员工，除非别无选择，否则公司不愿让员工离开。

    The result is an unemployment rate which barely rises, even in recessions.

    结果是失业率几乎没有上升，即使在经济衰退期间也是如此。

    In the past 30 years Japan’s jobless rate has varied⁵ by just 3.5 percentage points, compared with 9.5 points in the average rich country.

    在过去30年里，日本的失业率仅波动了3.5个百分点，而一般富裕国家的失业率波动幅度为9.5个百分点。

    A more Japanese labour market would have disadvantages.

    更加日本化的劳动力市场将会有不利之处。

    If workers do not leave poorly performing firms, they cannot join innovative⁶ ones which drive growth.

    如果员工不离开业绩不佳的公司，他们就无法加入推动经济增长的创新公司。

    Indeed, the data suggest that rich-world productivity growth is exceptionally weak at present.

    事实上，数据表明，富裕国家的生产率增长目前异常疲软。

    However, spells of unemployment can exert a terrible human toll⁷.

    然而，失业期可能会造成严重的人员损失。

    Countries where unemployment is less volatile⁸ also tend to have milder recessions, points out Dario Perkins of TS Lombard, a financial-services firm.

    金融服务公司TS Lombard的达里奥·珀金斯指出，失业率波动较小的国家，其经济衰退往往也更温和。

    When the labour market does not crack, people can keep spending even as growth slows.

    当劳动力市场没有崩溃时，人们可以在增长放缓的情况下继续消费。