2023年经济学人 当前移民潮对世界经济的影响(1)

（单词翻译）

 

 

    Finance & economics

    财经版块

    Exodus¹

    大迁徙

    An unprecedentedly² large wave of mass migration³ is under way.

    一场规模空前的移民潮正在进行中。

    Last year 1.2m people moved to Britain—almost certainly the most ever.

    去年有120万人移居英国，几乎肯定是有史以来最多的一年。

    Net migration (ie, immigrants minus emigrants⁴) to Australia is twice the rate before Covid-19.

    澳大利亚的净移民(即移入减去移出)是疫情前的两倍。

    Spain’s equivalent figure recently hit an all-time high.

    西班牙的这一数字最近创下历史新高。

    Nearly 1.4m people on net are expected to move to America this year, one-third more than before the pandemic.

    预计今年美国的净移民将接近140万，比疫情前多出三分之一。

    In 2022 net migration to Canada was more than double the previous record and in Germany it was even higher than during the “migration crisis” of 2015.

    2022年，加拿大的净移民数量是之前记录的两倍多，德国的净移民数量甚至超过了2015年“移民危机”期间的水平。

    The rich world is in the middle of an immigration boom, with its foreign-born population rising faster than at any point in history.

    富裕国家正处于移民热潮之中，其外国出生人口的增长速度比历史上任何时期都快。

    What does this mean for the global economy?

    这对全球经济意味着什么？

    Not long ago it seemed as if many wealthy countries had turned decisively against mass migration.

    就在不久前，许多富裕国家似乎还坚决反对大规模移民。

    In 2016 Britons voted for Brexit and then Americans for Donald Trump⁵, political projects with strong anti-migrant streaks⁶.

    2016年，英国人投票支持退欧，然后美国人投票支持唐纳德·特朗普，这两种政治方案都带有强烈的反移民倾向。

    In the global wave of populism that followed, politicians from Australia to Hungary promised to crack down on migration.

    在随后的全球民粹主义浪潮中，从澳大利亚到匈牙利的政界人士承诺打击移民。

    Then Covid closed borders.

    然后新冠疫情使国界封闭。

    Migration came to a standstill, or even went into reverse, as people decided⁷ to return home.

    随着人们决定返回家乡，移民活动陷入停滞，甚至出现逆转。

    Between 2019 and 2021 the populations of Kuwait and Singapore, countries that typically receive lots of migrants, fell by 4%.

    2019年至2021年间，科威特和新加坡这两个通常接收大量移民的国家的人口下降了4%。

    In 2021 the number of emigrants from Australia exceeded the number of immigrants to the country for the first time since the 1940s.

    2021年，澳大利亚移出人数自20世纪40年代以来首次超过移入人数。

    The surge in migration has brought back a sense of normality to some places.

    移民的激增让一些地方恢复了正常的感觉。

    Singapore’s foreign workforce⁸ recently returned to its pre-pandemic level.

    新加坡的外籍劳动力最近恢复到了疫情爆发前的水平。

    In other places it feels like a drastic change.

    在其他地方，移民更像是一种剧变。

    Consider Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada’s second-smallest province by population.

    以纽芬兰与拉布拉多省为例，这是加拿大人口第二少的省份。

    Long home to people of Irish-Catholic descent—with accents to match—net migration to the province is running at more than 20 times the pre-pandemic norm.

    长期以来，这里的居民是爱尔兰天主教后裔--相应地说话也是爱尔兰口音--现在该省的净移民数量已经是疫情前正常水平的20多倍。

    St John’s, the capital, feels more like Toronto every time you visit.

    每次来到该省首府圣约翰斯，都会给人一种到了多伦多的感觉。

    Heart’s Delight, a small rural settlement, now has a Ukrainian bakery, Borsch.

    这个省里有一个名为“心之愉悦”的小型乡村聚居地，现在这里已经有了一家名为罗宋汤的乌克兰面包店。

    The provincial⁹ government is setting up an office in Bangalore to help recruit nurses.

    省政府正在印度班加罗尔设立办事处，帮助招聘护士。

    The new arrivals in Newfoundland are a microcosm of those elsewhere in the rich world.

    纽芬兰的新移民是富裕世界其他地区移民的一个缩影。

    Many hundreds of Ukrainians have arrived on the island—a tiny share of the millions who have left the country since Russia invaded.

    数百名乌克兰人已经抵达纽芬兰岛，在俄罗斯入侵后而离开乌克兰的数百万人中，这只是一小部分。

    Indians and Nigerians also appear to be on the move in large numbers. Many speak English.

    印度人和尼日利亚人似乎也在大量迁徙，其中许多人会说英语。

    And many already have family connections in richer countries, in particular Britain and Canada.

    而且许多人已经在较富裕的国家有亲戚，特别是英国和加拿大。

    Some of the surge in migration is because people are making up for lost time.

    移民的激增在一定程度上是因为人们在夺回失去的时间。

    Many migrants acquired visas in 2020 or 2021, but only made the trip once Covid restrictions¹⁰ loosened.

    许多移民在2020年或2021年获得签证，但直到疫情管制放松后才启程前往。

    Yet the rich world’s foreign-born population—at well over 100m—is now above its pre-crisis trend, suggesting something else is going on.

    然而，富裕世界的外国出生人口--数量远远超过1亿人--现在高于危机前的水平，这表明还有其他原因。

    The nature of the post-pandemic economy is a big part of the explanation.

    在对移民潮的解释中，后疫情时代的经济本质是很大一部分。

    Unemployment in the rich world, at 4.8%, has not been so low in decades.

    富裕国家的失业率为4.8%，是几十年来最低的水平。

    Bosses are desperate for staff, with vacancies¹¹ near an all-time high.

    老板们迫切需要员工，职位空缺接近历史最高水平。

    People from abroad thus have good reason to travel.

    因此，来自国外的人完全有理由前往富裕国家。

    Currency movements may be another factor.

    汇率变动可能是另一个因素。

    A British pound buys more than 100 Indian rupees, compared with 90 in 2019.

    现在一英镑能兑100多印度卢比，而2019年只能兑90卢比。

    Since the beginning of 2021 the average emerging-market currency has depreciated¹² by about 4% against the dollar.

    自2021年初以来，新兴市场货币对美元的平均贬值幅度约为4%。

    This enables migrants to send more money home than before.

    这使移民能够比以前汇更多的钱回国。