2023年经济学人 世界经济进入隐居消费时代(1)

（单词翻译）

 

 

    Finance and economics

    财经版块

    Apart, together

    一起分开生活

    The world economy has entered a new era, that of the hermit¹ consumer.

    世界经济进入了一个新时代：隐居消费时代。

    In some ways covid-19 was a blip.

    在某些方面，新冠肺炎只是暂时性的问题。

    After soaring in 2020, unemployment across the rich world quickly dropped to pre-pandemic lows.

    富裕国家的失业率在2020年飙升后，又迅速降至大流行前的低点。

    Countries re-attained their pre-covid GDP in short order.

    各国GDP也很快恢复到了疫情前的水平。

    And yet, more than two years after lockdowns were lifted, at least one change is enduring: consumer habits across the rich world have shifted decisively, and perhaps permanently².

    然而，在封控解除两年多后，至少有一个变化是持久的：富裕国家的消费者习惯已经发生了决定性的变化，这种变化可能是永久的。

    Welcome to the age of the hermit.

    欢迎来到隐居时代。

    Before covid, the share of consumer spending devoted³ to services was rising steadily⁴.

    在新冠之前，服务业占消费者支出的份额稳步上升。

    As societies became richer, they sought more luxury experiences, health care and financial planning.

    随着社会变得更加富裕，消费者寻求更多的奢侈体验、医疗保健和财务规划服务。

    Then in 2020 spending on services, from hotel stays to hair cuts, collapsed⁵.

    然后在2020年，从酒店住宿到理发的各类服务支出大幅下降。

    With people spending more time at home, demand for goods jumped, with a rush for computer equipment and exercise bikes.

    人们更长时间地待在家里，对商品的需求随之激增，比如电脑设备和健身自行车。

    Three years on, the share of spending devoted to services remains⁶ below its pre-covid level.

    三年过去了，在服务方面的支出占比仍低于疫情前的水平。

    Relative to its pre-covid trend, the decline is sharper still.

    与疫情前的趋势相比，下降的幅度更大。

    Rich-world consumers are spending around $600bn a year less on services than you might have expected in 2019.

    富裕世界的消费者每年在服务上的支出比2019年的预期水平要少约6000亿美元。

    In particular, people are less interested in leisure activities that take place outside the home, including hospitality and recreation.

    人们尤其对户外休闲活动的兴趣降低，包括酒店餐饮和各类娱乐。

    Money is being redirected to goods, ranging from durables⁷ like chairs and fridges, to things such as clothes, food and wine.

    资金被重新用于购买商品，从椅子和冰箱等耐用品，到衣服、食物和葡萄酒等商品。

    In countries that spent less time in lockdown, hermit habits have not become ingrained.

    在封控时间较短的国家，隐居习惯还没有变得根深蒂固。

    Elsewhere, though, the behaviour looks pathological.

    然而，在其他地方，隐居行为已变得有些不太正常。

    In the Czech Republic, which was whacked⁸ by covid, the services share is three percentage points below trend.

    在遭受新冠重创的捷克共和国，服务业所占的消费份额比疫情前的趋势低3个百分点。

    America is not far off.

    美国也快了。

    Japan has witnessed a 50% decline in restaurant bookings for client entertainment and other business purposes.

    日本用于客户招待等商务目的的餐厅预订量下降了50%。

    Pity the drunken salaryman staggering round Tokyo’s pleasure districts: he is an endangered species.

    那个摇摇晃晃地走在东京娱乐区的醉醺醺的上班族真是可怜：他已经是濒危物种了。

    At first glance, the figures are difficult to reconcile with the anecdotes⁹.

    第一眼看过去，这些数字与人们所说的情况并不相符。

    Isn’t it harder than ever to get a table at a restaurant?

    在餐厅订位子难道不是比以前更难了吗？

    Yet the true source of the crowding is not sky-high demand, but constrained¹⁰ supply.

    然而，拥挤的真正根源不是极高的需求，而是有限的供应。

    These days fewer people want to work in hospitality—in America employment in the industry remains lower than in 2019.

    如今，想在酒店餐饮业工作的人越来越少，在美国，该行业的就业人数仍低于2019年的水平。

    And pandemic disruption means many new hotels and restaurants that would have opened in 2020 and 2021 never did.

    大流行的破坏意味着，许多本应在2020年和2021年开业的新酒店和新餐厅并没有开成。

    The number of hotels in Britain, at around 10,000, has not grown since 2019.

    英国的酒店数量（约为1万家）自2019年以来一直没有增长。