英闻天下——24 Chinese Economy Set for Soft-landing?

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　　CRI's Ding Lulu has more.

 

　　"Lowering the GDP growth target is mainly to guide all sectors² to focus their work on transforming the pattern of economic development, raise the quality and to achieve better development lasting³ longer and at a higher level."

 

　　Premier⁴ Wen Jiabao set the economic goal for 2012 at 7.5 percent earlier in the year, a self-imposed slowdown for the structural⁵ adjustment of the economy.

 

　　This is the first time the authorities have set a growth target below 8-percent.

 

　　According to the World Bank's latest report, China's growth is projected to reach 7.9 percent in 2012, the lowest growth rate in the country since 1999.

 

　　Meanwhile, the rise in consumer prices is slowing down.

 

　　The CPI increase has slowed from 4.5 percent in January to 2 percent in November.

 

　　As such, a number of economists⁷ expect that China is headed for a soft landing.

 

　　Anoop Singh is the International Monetary⁸ Fund's director for Asia and the Pacific.

 

　　"China is not having a hard landing and the numbers are clearly recognizing that China will grow this year about seven and three quarter (percent)."

 

　　However, is the rate of growth slow enough to avoid a spike⁹ in inflation?

 

　　Many here in China are not happy with the current price levels.

 

　　Ms. Zhou from Zhejiang keeps a record of her daily shopping throughout the year.

 

　　Her records seem to reflect what's been happening with the CPI here in China in 2012.

 

　　"In the first half of 2012, the price levels were a bit high. But by May and June, prices went down gradually. Take meat for example, it was 16 kuai (for 500 grams), now it is 12 kuai. So the price levels did come down, but for us ordinary people, it's still a little expensive."

 

　　A report from the World Bank says the government's move to cool down the overheating housing sector¹ also slowed China's economy.

 

　　Despite this, new and existing home sales in China's major cities have seen a jump recently.

 

　　As the government moves to shore up growth, questions are being raised as to whether the government will loosen its restrictions¹⁰ on the property market.

 

　　But following the Central Economic Work Conference in December, the government delivered that answer loud and clear, saying the authorities are going to keep their property control policies in place in 2013.

 

　　China's top policymakers say they're committed to deepening economic reforms and maintaining a proactive fiscal¹¹ policy and prudent¹² monetary policy in 2013.

 

　　And while the economic soft-landing is being predicted by many economists, there are those who are warning China is starting to lose its economic advantages.

 

　　China's economy grew 7.4-percent in the 3rd quarter.

 

　　This represents the 7th quarter in a row of slowing economic growth.

 

　　Justin Lin, former World Bank chief economist⁶, says he believes the Chinese economy maintains the potential to grow over 8-percent over the coming 20-years, provided a number of steps are taken.

 

　　"If you want to realize the potential, China needs to do many things. One thing that they need to complete is the transition from a planned economy to a well-functioning market economy. At the same time, the government needs to play the facilitation role, in the process of upgrading technological¹³ innovation."

 

　　For CRI, I'm Ding Lulu.

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