美国有线新闻 CNN 2012-10-13
时间：2013-10-16 06:21:41
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We will begin tonight Keeping Them Honest on campaigns that love the polls but only when the polls are going their way. Right now, that would be the Romney campaign. New polling in battleground states tonight, the latest CNN/ORC survey in Ohio done entirely1 after the first debate, now showing a four-point Obama lead. That’s a statistical2 tie. It is a significant change from the seven to ten point lead the president enjoyed before the debate. New polling as well from Sienna College that shows a statistical tie in Pennsylvania, that’s based on surveys done both before and after the debate. And nationally in Gallup’s Daily Tracking Poll, which covers October 2nd through the 8th, Mitt3 Romney now holds a two point edge.
Today, Gallup shifted from registered to likely voters, which tends to favor Republicans. That said though, it is hard to find any evidence, any evidence that President Obama escaped Denver without at least some damage. The only question being how severe and how long
lasting4. That seems hard to dispute just as it’s hard to dispute that prior to the debate, Mr. Romney was getting hammered in the polls. Keeping Them Honest, though, disputing or downplaying the obvious, that’s what campaigns do on both sides.
It’s not, in the end, it’s not going to be about the polls. I wouldn’t put a lot of weight in any of these national polls for the next couple of days anyway.
Well, you know, in terms of Mitt Romney surging, just remember how much of a
deficit5 he had to make up. I mean he was in some cases double
digits6 behind the president in all those attributes. And the president is still leading on them.
Pull back the
reins7 a little bit, the media focusing on one poll because they really want this
narrative8 to change.
Well, that’s reaction to the recent
batch9 of post-debate polling, including that
devastating10 Pew Poll that showed a four point Romney lead. Now consider that Pew took an earlier poll in September a couple of weeks before the debate, it was the Republicans going ballistic when it showed Romney eight points down. Watch.
These polls are basically just part and parcel of the campaign for Barack Obama to help him stay in this game as long as possible. If you believe what the polls are saying right now, you’ve got believe that there is something huge going on.
I’ve said that all along, and I’m willing to say that publicly and stick by and I know that poll up 15 points is absolutely
invalid11.
People need to understand that the polling this year is the worst it’s ever been.
Ari said both polls were skewed when we had him on the program the last couple of days. You heard Bay Buchanan
allude13 to it in the beginning of that clip. Some
pundits14 on the right have been complaining that the major polling operation
systematically15 favor President Obama. A guy named Dean
Chambers16 even set up a Website, take a look. It’s called unskewedpolls.com and it
purports17 to reveal and correct the
bias18 he sees in political polling. So, now that the polls seem to be swinging in Mitt Romney’s favor, could it be because he did well in debate? Actually, no, instead, the unskewedpolls the guy from the unskewedpolls credits the change to well, actually to himself, he writes, quote, “I suggested last week that the pollsters will become more concerned about their credibility and would straighten up and fly right, so to speak, they have.”
It sounds like everyone on all sides of the
aisle19 needs to take a deep breath, get a little perspective. Cornell Belcher, as you heard from a moment ago, suggests we all wait awhile for the numbers to settle. Ari Fleischer last night told me he take the latest good and bad news for his side with a grain of salt.
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