经济学人27:后海啸时期日本政治,徒劳挣扎

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　　后海啸时期日本政治

　　Flailing²

　　徒劳挣扎

　　Political co-operation, hard before the earthquake and tsunami, has got harder

　　地震和海啸发生之前就困难重重的政治合作，现在更是愈发艰难

　　AS JAPAN copes with its worst crisis since the second world war, the prime minister, Naoto Kan, is calling for a new politics. In particular, he wants collaboration⁴ with opposition⁵ parties mostly bent⁶ on ousting⁸ him. “Many ways of doing things in this country have come to the end of the road,” he said on April 11th. “To rebuild this country, we need a new mindset. I hope for—and expect—a new direction.”

　　日本正在面对自二战以来的最大危机，现任首相菅直人正在呼吁出台新政。特别地，他希望能和决意令他下台的在野党合作。4月11日菅直人说：“这个国家一些处理事情的方法已经走到了尽头。为了重建这个国家，我们需要全新的精神状态。我希望着并盼望着能有新的出路。”

　　He seems unlikely to get it. The quake and tsunami that devastated⁹ north-eastern Japan, and the nuclear disaster that followed, have disrupted the economy, with power shortages and stricken factories. Ordinary Japanese have cut back on inessential spending, in a mood of sacrificial restraint. Much has changed. Yet one constant remains¹⁰: petty political bickering¹¹.

　　看来菅直人不太可能看到这一出路了。摧毁日本东北部的地震和海啸，以及随之而来的核灾难，导致了能源短缺以及工厂受灾，从而扰乱了日本经济。在 “自肃”精神的影响下，日本普通民众减少了不必要的开支。许多事情都改变了，但是琐碎的政治争吵却从未间断过。

　　As the government has attempted to deal with the mess, the opposition Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has picked on minor¹² gaffes¹³ to justify¹⁴ exaggerated displays of outrage¹⁵. Mr Kan’s offer to the LDP’s leader, Sadakazu Tanigaki, to form a “grand coalition” with his Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) was rebuffed. The opposition thinks Mr Kan is flailing and his prime ministership, which was in trouble well before the earthquake, is in danger.

　　就在政府试图收拾乱摊子时，在野党自由民主党（LDP）通过挑毛病来替民众夸张的愤怒辩护。菅直人向自由民主党（LDP）主席谷桓祯一提出：由自由民主党（LDP）和他的民主党（DPJ）一起成立“联合政府”，但这个提议被谷桓祯一断然拒绝。在野党认为菅直人在徒劳挣扎，他本在地震之前就不牢固的首相职位现在更是岌岌可危。

　　In opinion polls, Mr Kan’s personal support has increased slightly since then, but around two-thirds of voters are disappointed with the government’s handling of the crisis, particularly at the Fukushima nuclear plant. On April 12th the nuclear accident there was upgraded to level seven, the highest rating on an international scale of severity. That places it on a par³ with the Chernobyl disaster 25 years ago this month (though the radiation released at Fukushima is only a tenth of Chernobyl’s, and nobody has died from it yet).

　　民意测验显示：在此之后菅直人的支持率有了短暂上升，但是约有2/3的选民对于政府应对危机的能力表示失望，尤其是在处理福岛核电站的问题上。福岛的核事故在4月12日升至7级，这是国际范围内严重问题的最高等级。这使福岛达到了在25年前这个月发生的切尔诺贝利核灾难的高度（尽管福岛泄露的放射性物质只是切尔诺贝利泄露的十分之一，而且没有人死于泄露的放射性物质）。

　　On April 10th the DPJ’s troubles took their toll¹⁶ in regional and local elections. The party lost all three of its races for prefectural governorships to the LDP. It failed to gain a plurality in any of 41 prefectural and municipal assemblies that were up for grabs. The drubbing has emboldened¹⁷ LDP politicians to resist more collaboration. As ever, they aim to oust⁷ Mr Kan and precipitate¹⁸ an early general election.

　　4月10日，民主党（DPJ）的问题在统一地方选举中显现出来。该党在全部三个地区的知事选举中落败于自由民主党（LDP）。民主党（DPJ）也没有在41个道府县议会竞选中取得较多席位。对于民主党（DPJ）的当头一棒让自由民主党（LDP）的政治家们有了拒绝更多合作的本钱。他们还是一如既往的要赶菅直人下台，并且要促成提前大选。

　　A semblance¹⁹ of political co-operation may last only until a second round of local elections on April 24th. It leaves just enough time to pass the first of many proposed disaster-relief bills. Some ??4 trillion (around $48 billion) will go towards rebuilding, as well as helping²⁰ tsunami victims and farmers and fishermen whose businesses have been hurt.

　　政治合作的假象预计只能持续到4月24日的第二轮地方选举。这只是为通过一些救灾法案预留出充足的时间。大约有4万亿日元（约合480亿美元）用于重建，以及帮助海啸灾民和被海啸危及生意的农民和渔民。

　　Later bills will be the source of fresh squabbles. The opposition will urge the DPJ to abandon pledges to introduce a child-support allowance and eliminate toll-road fees. Although the DPJ used these campaign pledges in 2009 to help defeat the LDP after a half-century in power, they are only mildly popular now. People know they will push Japan ever deeper into debt.

　　以后的法案会成为发生新口角的原因。在野党要求民主党（DPJ）取消引入儿童抚养津贴和取消公路收费的承诺。虽然民主党（DPJ）在2009年用这些竞选承诺击败了执政半个世纪的自由民主党（LDP），但是民主党（DPJ）现在不再那么受人欢迎了。人们知道他们会把日本背负上更多的债务。

　　Complicating²¹ Mr Kan’s position is the make-up of his own party. The DPJ is stuffed with backbenchers loyal to Ichiro Ozawa, an old-timer who resigned from the party leadership because of a fund-raising scandal but who still undermines Mr Kan. The prime minister has to cut his cloth to suit Mr Ozawa’s gang.

　　菅直人自己政党的成员使他的职位很尴尬。民主党（DPJ）里有很多忠于小泽一郎的后座议员，小泽一郎以前是民主党的领袖，由于资金筹集丑闻他从民主党领袖的位置上退了下来，但是他依然在暗地里削弱菅直人的势力。为了满足小泽一郎集团的要求，菅直人不得不量力而行。

　　The LDP is hardly in better shape. Few people believe it would have handled the many-headed catastrophe²² any more adroitly²³. And they know that the LDP’s long dominance in some ways prepared the way for the crisis. For instance, weak regulation of the nuclear-power industry allowed old, ill-supervised reactors²⁴ such as those at the Fukushima plant to remain in service.

　　自由民主党（LDP）也不比民主党（DPJ）强多少。没人相信它能熟练解决民众面对的灾难。他们知道自由民主党（LDP）在某些方面长期的优势，使他们有方法应对危机。比方说，对核电工业的监督不力，使老化、缺乏监管的像福岛核电站一样的反应堆继续使用。

　　The party is beset²⁵ by internal conflict. The dinosaurs²⁶ see little need to revitalise the party’s appeal or methods. Indeed, post-tsunami reconstruction²⁷, they think, is a way to dole²⁸ out public-works contracts, just as in the old days. Younger members think this is why politicians and voters who over the years grew disenchanted with the LDP are not returning to the fold. According to a recent poll in the Yomiuri Shimbun newspaper, half of Japan’s public supports neither party.

　　政党受到内部冲突的困扰。老政治家认为没必要重塑政党形象和执政方法。他们理所当然地认为：就像以前一样，少量发放公共建设工程合同就能完成海啸后的重建而已。年轻政治家认为，这就是政治家和多年来对自由民主党（LDP）不抱指望的选民们不会重新对自由民主党（LDP）抱有希望的原因。根据最近的“读卖新闻”上的民意测验，半数日本民众对两党都不支持。

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