经济学人55:共和党提名,七推特之舞

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　　共和党提名

　　The dance of the seven tweets

　　七推特之舞

　　The former speaker starts a presidential campaign

　　前众院议长开始总统竞选

　　May 12th 2011 | WASHINGTON, DC | from the print edition

　　NEWT GINGRICH entered the race for president much as he has conducted himself throughout his political career: chaotically². In March his aides let slip that he would make a big announcement during a stop at the state capitol in Atlanta, Georgia, only to retract³ the whole plan for reasons that still remain opaque⁴. Then on May 9th his staff used Twitter to declare that two days later he would issue a tweet, along with an update to his Facebook page, that would mark his entry into the race. All this tweeting about possible future tweets kept commentators⁵ puzzling (which may have been part of the point) but finally, on May 11th, the immortal⁶ words “Today I am announcing my candidacy for President of the United States” appeared on Mr Gingrich’s feed, in between a plug for an upcoming television appearance and an enthusiastic mention of a book about the Berlin wall.

　　纽特金瑞奇此次进入总统竞选,一如他自己在其整个政治生涯所演绎过的：很混乱。三月份他的助手们无意中透露过，他将会在佐治亚州亚特兰大州议会厅逗留期间做一重大宣布：由于各种仍保密的原因要取消整个竞选计划。然而5月9日他的工作人员通过微博宣布，两天后他将发布一条推特，同时更新他的脸书，以此标志他加入总统竞选。这个关于未来可能的推特的推特完全令时政评论员们感到迷惑（哪个会是重点所在即正式的宣告呢）但最终，5月11日，“今日我将宣布竞选美国总统”这个不朽词句，出现在金瑞奇先生所供的新闻播料中，就在为一个即将播出的电视演出所作的插播和一本关于柏林墙的书的热推之间。

　　Mr Gingrich’s affinity⁷ for social media notwithstanding, most Americans think of him as a figure from the past. He was first elected to Congress in 1978. In 1994 he was the inspiration behind the Contract with America, a manifesto⁸ that helped the Republicans to win a majority in the House of Representatives for the first time in 40 years. As a result, he became speaker, and proceeded to duel⁹ with Bill Clinton, the president of the day, over both budgets and Mr Clinton’s personal life.

　　金瑞奇先生与社交媒体关系密切，尽管如此，多数美国人记起的还是他以往的形象。1978年他第一个当选为国会议员。1994年他提出的“与美国签约”的竞选纲领帮助共和党40年来首次羸得众议院多数席位。结果，他成了众院议长，并在比尔克林顿就任总统期间，在预算和克林顿私生活上，继续与其抗衡。

　　All this means Mr Gingrich is not only known to Republican primary voters, but is something of a hero to many of them. But he is a flawed one, in several respects. For one thing, he is generally considered to have come off worse in his battles with Mr Clinton, who romped¹⁰ to re-election after the government shutdown of 1995-96. Mr Clinton also survived the Republicans’ subsequent attempt to impeach¹¹ him, while the Republicans lost seats in the House at the next election. Mr Gingrich took the blame for the party’s poor showing, and resigned. He has not held public office of any sort since 1998.

　　所有这一切表明金瑞奇先生不仅是众所周知的共和党初选选民，也是他们许多人眼里的英雄人物。但在某些方面他是有缺点的。其一，他被普遍认为在与克林顿先生的对决中表现很糟，后者在1995－96年政府关闭之后轻而易举地再次竞选获胜。克林顿还侥幸渡过了共和党随后对他的弹劾企图，与此同时共和党在接下来的众议院选举中丢失了席位。金瑞奇先生谴责了共和党的糟糕表现并辞职。他自1998年以来没有再担任任何公职。

　　Worse, from the prospective¹² of many Republicans, Mr Gingrich turned out to have just as louche a personal life as Mr Clinton. He has been married three times, having had affairs with his second and third wives while still married to their predecessors¹³. And then there is that mercurial¹⁴ temperament¹⁵. Since he began publicly contemplating¹⁶ a presidential run last year, he has likened those wanting to build a mosque¹⁷ near Ground Zero to Nazis¹⁸, blamed his affairs on his patriotism¹⁹ (which led him to work so hard, he explained, that he lost his moral compass), snapped at an audience member at a public event who asked him about his private life, flip-flopped on the wisdom of America’s involvement in Libya and then refused to admit that he had done so, despite being caught on camera.

　　更糟糕的是，从许多共和党人的竞选展望中看到，金瑞奇先生竟然有如克林顿先生一样的声名狼藉的私生活。他结过三次婚，在第二三任妻子还嫁给前夫时与她们有外遇。此外还有他善变的性情。自从他去年公开关注总统竞选以来，他把那些以他的风流韵事谴责他的爱国心（他解释说是他的爱国情怀让他如此辛苦工作而失去了他的道德方向感）的人比作是想在纳粹归零地建清真寺，还在共场合厉声喝斥一个问他关于他的私生活的观众，对美国介入利比亚的明智之举含糊其辞却拒绝承认他这么做过，尽管被镜头捕捉到。

　　All this helps to explain why Mr Gingrich is polling rather limply, despite his high name-recognition. Nonetheless, he is not without strengths. He should hold some appeal for Republicans of all stripes, from fiscal²⁰ hawks²¹ to evangelicals (since converting to Catholicism in 2009, he has been complaining that America has become too secular). He is a prolific²² fund-raiser, and has created a network of activists²³ over the years that will enthusiastically promote his cause. He fizzes with energy and ideas, and seems more of an intellectual heavyweight than most of the current field (though that is not hard). Whether Mr Gingrich turns that into an asset, by appearing grave, informed and presidential, or a liability, by thinking aloud and going off on tangents, is still an open question—though we rather suspect the latter.

　　这一切有助于解释为什么金瑞奇先生获得的民意支持较弱，尽管他有着较高的声望。不过，他也并不是没有优势。他应该对从财政强硬派到福音派（自2009年转至天主教以来，他一直在抱怨美国已变得太世俗）的形形色色的共和党人做出一些呼吁。他是一个多产的募捐人，多年来已建立起一个积极分子网络，这些积极分子将热心地推动他的事业。他精力充沛思想丰富，相比当前多数领域有影响力的人物他更像一个智慧型的重量级人物（虽然这并不难做到）。金瑞奇先生是通过严肃灵通和总统的表现成为一项资产，还是通过自话自说的发声思维和交点波动的游离思维成为一项负债，仍是一个未解决的问题——虽然我们较倾向于后者。

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