经济学人03:生物学和金融界的不稳定性

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　　文艺；书评；

　　Biology and financial instability

　　生物学和金融界的不稳定性

　　The molecules² of mayhem

　　混乱的分子

　　The Hour Between Dog and Wolf: Risk-Taking, Gut³ Feelings and the Biology of Boom and Bust⁴. By John Coates.

　　狗和狼之间的那一刻：冒险、 直觉和繁荣与萧条的生物学。由约翰·科茨。

　　The financial crisis was caused by many things: greedy bankers, a glut⁵ of Chinese savings⁶, shoddy regulation, an obsession⁷ with home ownership—take your pick. John Coates, once a trader on Wall Street and now a neuroscientist at Cambridge University, presents yet another culprit: biology, or, more precisely⁸, the physiology⁹ of risk-taking. Financial traders, he says, are influenced by what is going on in their bodies as well as in the markets. Two steroid hormones¹¹—testosterone and cortisol—come out in force during the excesses of bull and bear markets.

　　导致金融危机的因素有好几个：贪婪的银行家、 中国的大笔储蓄、 具误导性的监管制度、 对拥屋的痴迷— — 任你挑选。约翰·科茨曾是华尔街的交易员，如今身为剑桥大学神经科学家的他，认为另有生物学因素在作祟，确切来说是冒险生理机能。他认为金融交易员会受到生理情况以及市场局势影响，强劲的牛市和熊市出现时,　两类固醇激素，就是睾酮和皮质醇会剧增。

　　Testosterone, “the molecule¹ of irrational¹² exuberance¹³”, is released into the body during moments of competition, risk-taking and triumph. In animals this leads to something called the “winner effect”. A male that wins one battle goes into the next one primed with higher levels of testosterone, helping¹⁴ him to win again. Eventually, though, confidence becomes cockiness. The animal starts more fights and experiences higher rates of mortality.

　　处在竞争，冒险和胜利的当儿，身体会释放出睾酮--“非理性能量的分子"。动物体内的睾酮会导致一种"赢家效应"。雄性动物在斗争中取得一次胜利时，体内更大量的睾酮会帮助它赢得下一场胜利。但最终，信心会膨胀成自大而急于挑起更多斗争和提高了死亡率。

　　Mr Coates thinks the exuberance that turns a market rally into a bubble may be fuelled by the same chemical. Some of this is based on traders he knew who became ever more convinced of their own invincibility¹⁵ during the dotcom era. But he also offers harder evidence. In one experiment Mr Coates sampled testosterone levels in traders in London and found that higher levels of the hormone¹⁰ in the morning correlated with beefier profits in the afternoon. Such profits came from taking higher risks, not greater skill.

　　科茨先生认为这是推动股市升温成泡沫现象的“化学能量”。部分结论来自他所认识的交易员。 处在互联网世代的这些交易员更加坚信自己是无敌的。此外，他也提供了比较确凿的证据。在一次实验中，科茨先生对伦敦交易员做了睾酮量的抽样调查。他发现早晨中偏高的激素量与午后的高利润有着相互关联。 这种利润来自更高的风险承担，而不是更好的技巧。

　　Biology may also be responsible for worsening market sentiment in bad times. The body’s response to prolonged periods of stress is to secrete¹⁶ increasing amounts of cortisol, a hormone that marshals resources to cope with crises. Sure enough, Mr Coates finds that cortisol levels in traders’ bodies fluctuate in line with market volatility¹⁷, even displaying a striking correlation¹⁸ with the prices of derivatives¹⁹.

　　生物学也可能会使市场的动荡局势恶化。身体在应付长期承受的压力时，会增加皮质醇（激素）的分泌。这种激素掌管的是对付危机的资源。科茨先生果然得出交易员体内的皮质醇含量会与股市一同波动，甚至是与衍生产品的价格有明显的相互关联。

　　A burst of chemicals can be helpful. Good traders seem to produce a lot of hormones, but only for short periods of time. The trouble comes when cortisol remains²⁰ in the body for extended periods. Rational analysis becomes harder, allowing emotional responses to gain the upper hand; risk aversion grows as testosterone production is suppressed. “During a severe bear market,” writes Mr Coates, “the banking²¹ and investment community may rapidly develop into a clinical population.”

　　一阵的化学效应是有它的用处。好的交易员体内似乎是会分泌较多的激素，但情况只限于在短时间内。皮质醇兜里在体内的时间若有延长，反而会有麻烦。这使到交易员无法做出理性的分析，被情绪控制；体内接着在压制睾酮量时会导致回避风险的倾向。科茨先生形容严重熊市会迅速的将银行和投资社区变成临床个案。

　　One answer, he thinks, is to change the chemical make-up of trading floors by hiring more older men and, especially, women. Their bodies release far less testosterone. Women have the same levels of cortisol as men, but their stress response is triggered less by competitive failures and more by problems in their personal lives. That may make them more resilient when the markets turn against them.

　　他认为其中一个答案，是通过较有年龄的男性或女性雇员的增加来改变交易所内的化学成分。他们体内分泌的睾酮量远少于年轻男性。女性与男性体内的皮质醇含量相同，但刺激点不一样。女性的压力反应较少来自竞争的失败，更多是来自私人问题。这或许令她们在不利的市场情况下更有弹性。

　　Mr Coates’s thesis is not entirely²² convincing. The experimental data are too scarce and the distinction he draws between the masculine world of risk-taking traders and the more feminised world of asset managers skips over the fact that many supposedly cautious, long-term investors²³ made poor bets in the boom. But it makes intuitive sense that biological responses inform the mood of the markets. This book puts flesh on that idea.

　　科茨先生的论文无法令人完全信服。他所采用的实验数据太少，把男性所垄断的交易员工作与女性为主的资产管理员工作做了区分，但却忽视了一个事实。很多带谨慎态度的长期投资者总会在牛市气氛中下错注。直觉上知道生物反应能告知市场情绪是有他的道理的。这本书把该想法具体化。

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