经济学人43:该死，还不贬值! Weaken, dammit!

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　　财经；日本汇率政策；该死，还不贬值！日本政策制定者暗中寻求本币贬值；

　　With their overnight-lending rates at zero for most of the past decade, the Japanese public long ago stopped caring about interest rates. Instead the yen is their focus. Shoppers may revel² in its current strength against the dollar but in the news media, the financial markets and corporate³ Japan, it is a relentless⁴ source of woe⁵. Carlos Ghosn, the boss of Nissan and Renault, publicly lambasts it as a “1,000-pound gorilla” that hurts his ability to sell Japanese cars abroad. Its strength is increasingly becoming a political issue, too.

　　在过去十年的大部分时间里，日本隔夜拆借利率都为零，日本民众早就对利率失去了兴趣，而日元则成为他们关注的焦点。日元兑美元汇率走强也许是购物者愿意听到的消息，但对于新闻媒体、金融市场和日本企业来说，这却是国内经济低迷的罪魁祸首。日产—雷诺的总裁卡洛斯·戈恩公开斥责日元升值是“一头1000磅的大猩猩”损害了日本汽车在海外市场的竞争力。同时，强势日元也逐渐成为一项政治议题。

　　Both the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the finance ministry⁶ have taken steps recently that analysts⁷ believe are surreptitiously aimed at the currency markets. On April 27th the BoJ increased the size of its asset-purchase programme by ￥5 trillion ($62 billion), and extended the maturity⁸ limit of government bonds it would buy from two to three years. That enhanced easing measures introduced in February which sharply weakened the yen.

　　日本央行和财政部最近都采取了一些行动。分析人士指出，这些行动都暗中针对货币市场。4月27日，日本央行将资产购买计划扩容五万亿日元（620亿美元），同时将计划购买的政府债券期限由两年延长到三年。今年二月推行的宽松货币政策使日元大幅贬值。这些举动进一步加强了这一政策的效力。

　　Days before, the finance ministry promised the biggest single contribution—a $60 billion slug—to a $430 billion increase in IMF funding which is largely aimed at alleviating⁹ concerns about the euro crisis. As a senior official admitted, Japan’s decision was not altruistic¹⁰. When the euro crisis gets worse, it weakens Japan’s exports to Europe and strengthens the yen, which compounds the first problem. So Japan has a direct interest in market stability.

　　几天前， IMF为缓解欧元危机造成的紧张情绪将（可贷）资金规模扩充4300亿美元，为响应这一号召，财务部允诺注资600亿美元，使日本成为本次注资金额最大的国家。正如一位高级官员承认“日本此举并非毫无私心”。随着欧元危机愈演愈烈，削弱了日本对欧洲的出口，进而使日元兑欧元走强——这会使得日本出口形势进一步恶化。因此，日本经济形势与国际市场稳定性直接相关。

　　Neither institution discusses the currency openly. The BoJ knows that overt¹¹ currency manipulation is frowned upon as a “beggar-thy-neighbour” policy. But it nonetheless believes the yen’s value is important, because it has an impact on the economic decisions people and companies make. It may influence inflation expectations (of foreign investors¹², if not deflation-inured domestic ones); and it is a hot potato politically. Influential¹³ politicians are pressing the central bank to do more to stoke the economy by pushing down the yen. They brandish¹⁴ figures showing how the BoJ’s asset-purchase programme has undershot that of other big central banks (see chart). Some political parties are proposing reforms that the BoJ fears would curb¹⁵ its independence.

　　日本央行和财政部都未公开讨论过货币问题。日本央行当然明白公开操纵汇率这种“以邻为壑”会招致他国不满。尽管如此，鉴于日元购买力对公司和个人的经济决策的影响，央行还是重视日元汇率的。就算汇率不影响日本国民（他们已经习惯了紧缩），也会影响外国投资者的通胀预期。而且从政治层面来看，它也是块烫手的山芋。现在，那些位高权重的政客们正向央行施压，要求它采取更多的手段使日元贬值以此刺激国内经济。他们援引数据表明，日本央行的资产购买计划（asset-purchase programme）远不及其他主要国家央行。而日本央行担心，某些政党提出的改革方案可能有损其独立性。

　　In its latest move, the BoJ seemed keen to remind the markets that it is no miracle worker. The increase in the asset-purchase programme fell short of expectations. It implicitly¹⁶ issued a warning about the danger of monetising debt by printing money. Since its meeting, the yen has strengthened. Masamichi Adachi at J.P. Morgan says that is a reminder¹⁷ that whatever the BoJ does, global risk appetites have a bigger influence on the currency markets.

　　在最近的行动中日本央行似乎极力提醒市场：不要指望它能创造神迹。扩大资产购买项目未能达到预期目标，这对于央行将债务货币化的危险提出了含蓄的警告。摩根大通驻东京高级分析师正道安達（Masamichi Adachi）称，目前日元走势坚挺也在提醒投资者，无论日本央行采取何种举动，全球风险偏好对货币市场的影响则要更大一些。

　　But the yen will not have been forgotten about. Yunosuke Ikeda of Nomura says that on four occasions since 2010 a bigger asset-purchase programme has been followed by government intervention¹⁸ to weaken the yen. He thinks that the government must be at least considering another intervention. What’s more, he believes the IMF loan may be a crafty¹⁹ manoeuvre²⁰ to help. Japan’s leadership in providing the money, he reckons, may make it easier for it to win international approval if it does choose to sell the yen again.

　　尽管如此，日元也不会为人们所忽视。野村证券分析师池田指出，自2010年来，政府已经四次干预日元汇率使之贬值，且都伴随着资产购买项目扩容。他认为日本人政府至少应该考虑再一次干预汇率。此外，日本向IMF提供贷款这一巧妙策略提升了日本的领导力，对日元贬值也有所助益：如果日本政府选择抛售日元使之贬值，这一策略会帮助日本获得国际社会支持。

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