经济学人45:漫长的晚安吻别

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　　财经；西班牙银行业；漫长的晚安吻别；

　　A bank merger² sheds fresh light on a sickly industry；

　　银行合并为沉疴已久的西班牙银行业带来一丝曙光；

　　It may be Spain's most short-lived public company. Just a few months after its July debut³ on the Spanish stockmarket, Banca Cívica this week agreed to sell itself to CaixaBank, a larger rival, at an 11% discount to its market price. The “take-under” is a sharp reminder⁴ of Spain's property woes⁵.

　　它可能是西班牙史上最短命的上市公司。就在本周，Banca Cívica银行同意以低于市价11%的折扣把自己出售给其强劲的竞争对手Caixa银行，此时距离它去年七月在在西班牙股票市场首次公开发行仅过去不过数月。Banca Cívica银行的“贱卖”让人们猛然想起了哀鸿遍野的西班牙地产市场。

　　Banca Cívica listed in the first place to meet capital targets set by the then Spanish government. Now it is one of the first casualties of rules set by the new government to get banks to set aside provisions and capital worth 50 billion Euro(66 billion Dollar) to cover losses on dud property loans. Faced with a capital and provisioning shortfall of 2 billion Euro, Banca Cívica accepted an all-share deal that valued it at a third of its book value. The combined entity⁶ will become Spain's largest bank by assets, with around 15% of the retail⁷ market.

　　前任西班牙政府制定的资本充足率目标对银行业影响甚广，首当其冲的便是Banca Cívica银行。新届政府成立后，又要求银行业对不良房地产贷款计提价值500亿欧元（660亿美元）资本的坏账准备金。由于资本不足，Banca Cívica银行的坏账准备金面临着20亿欧元的缺口，只得接受换股收购，以账面价值三分之一的价格将自己出售。合并后的企业实体以资产来计将成为西班牙最大的银行，占据大约15%的零售市场

　　The deal may not be good for Cívica's shareholders⁸, but it is positive for the system as a whole that a stronger bank is using its excess capital to clean up a weaker one. As part of the deal, CaixaBank will write down 3.4 billion Euro of Banca Cívica's assets, 3 billion Euro of which relates to property loans and foreclosures—more than the amount Banca Cívica was officially supposed to set aside and a sign that the current provisioning targets might still be insufficient⁹. CaixaBank can afford to take the hit. Its core capital will drop by 1.7 percentage points, yet it is still on track to meet the 9% core-capital mark demanded by European regulators by the summer.

　　这笔交易或许不符合Banca Cívica银行股东们的利益，但对整个市场来说却是个积极的信号，因为一家强大的银行将用它多余的资本为另一家虚弱银行清理不良贷款。作为交易的一部分，Caixa银行会对Banca Cívica银行的资产减记34亿欧元，这当中有30亿欧元与房地产贷款以及抵押品停止赎回有关——超过了之前Banca Cívica银行官方估计的处理金额，这很可能预示着目前的坏账准备金目标仍过低。Caixa银行能够承受这一资产减值的打击，虽然它的核心资本充足率将因此下降1.7%，但仍满足今年夏天欧洲央行规定的9%的的目标。

　　Capital elsewhere is scarce, however. Most other lenders lack CaixaBank's powerful balance-sheet: they are focused on meeting a March 31st deadline to present their plans to the Bank of Spain on how to meet the new provisioning requirements. And just like its predecessor¹⁰, the government is trying to minimise the cost of bank rescues to the taxpayer¹¹ and to the country's public finances, now firmly back in the bond-market spotlight¹². “Unfortunately, the capacity to recognise losses is extremely limited because, as things stand, there is no capital, private or public, for a convincing recapitalisation,” worries Tano Santos of Columbia University.

　　然而，对于其他银行而言，资本仍很是稀缺。许多银行都没有Caixa银行那样强劲的资产负债表：它们正专注于在3月31日大限前向西班牙央行提交一份方案，说明自己如何实现新的准备金要求。和前任政府的做法相同，现任政府试图将附加于纳税人和国家财政身上的的银行救助成本最小化。政府力图重返债券市场的做法使其备受关注。“不幸的是，西班牙确认资产损失的能力有限。目前看来，无论是私人资本还是政府资金都十分欠缺，这让资本重组显得不可信。”哥伦比亚大学的塔诺桑托斯担忧地说道。

　　The government used money from an industry-backed deposit guarantee fund (FGD) to inject capital and guarantee risky¹³ assets during the sale of two nationalised banks, Banco CAM and Unnim. Three more nationalised lenders will soon be auctioned¹⁴ and will also need money to smooth the way. But the pot is now nearly empty. The FGD could ask for extraordinary contributions from banks or raise debt backed by future annual contributions. But bankers grumble¹⁵ that this is like trying to get a sick patient to cure himself.

　　政府在出售CAM和Unnim这两家国有银行的过程中，动用了银行业发起成立的储蓄担保基金（FGD）来为它们注入资本，并且为风险资产提供担保。另外三家国有银行很快也会被拍卖，这也需要钱来铺路。但是储蓄担保基金现在已经用的快见底了。FGD有两条路可以走：或者要求各家银行提供额外的资金；又或者以各银行未来每年注资的形式作担保来发行债券。但银行家们纷纷抱怨，这种做法好是比让病人自己抢救自己。

　　One source of concern is BFA Bankia, which listed the day before Banca Cívica last summer and faces a provisioning and capital shortfall of 5.1 billion Euro. After deducting¹⁶ provisions already taken in 2011, asset sales and the recent swap¹⁷ of preference shares in its parent group, BFA, for Bankia shares, the shortfall is closer to 2.7 billion Euro. Speculation¹⁸ that it might merge¹ with CaixaBank was quashed by the latter's deal with Cívica, but rumours¹⁹ swirl²⁰ about other mergers²¹.

　　BFA Bankia现在尤其令人担忧。这家银行在去年夏天仅比Banca Cívica银行早一天上市。它面临的准备金和资本短缺达到了51亿欧元。该银行在2011年通过资产出售和向母公司互换优先股的方式筹集了一部分准备金，但仍面临着27亿欧元的资金缺口。此前曾有传言Caixa银行将与BFA Bankia进行合并，尽管随后发生的CaixaBank 与Cívica的合并交易使得谣言不攻自破，但有关其并购的各种传闻依然甚嚣尘上。

　　Bankia says it can make it on its own. The shortfall will be covered by a combination of profits, balance-sheet shrinkage and more asset sales and preference-share swaps²². Rodrigo Rato, the chairman, downplayed the challenges in its 2011 results presentation. “Bankia doesn't represent a systemic problem,” he said. “Bankia is systemic, but it isn't a problem.”

　　Bankia银行宣称它完全能自力更生地筹集到准备金，短缺的资金将由未来盈利、收缩资产负债表以及出售资产和优先股互换来弥补。Bankia银行的董事局主席罗德里格拉托在2011年的业绩发布会上轻描淡写地谈起面临的挑战。“Bankia银行不存在系统性问题”他说道。“Bankia的确是一家系统性银行，但它不是问题。”

　　All of which leaves the new government in a similar bind²³ to the old one. Forcing a rapid clean-up of the sector²⁴ risks soaking up scarce public money. But leaving the banks to muddle²⁵ their way through has costs, too. Although the European Central Bank's three-year loan programme has eased funding pressures on Spanish banks, a credit crunch²⁶ is under way. Listed Spanish banks shrank their loan books by 3.7% in 2011, according to estimates by Exane BNP Paribas, an investment firm which expects the trend to continue this year and next. That risks worsening the economic situation, and the losses that lenders face. Tightening²⁷ the screws on provisions is an important step, but the government may yet need another reform plan.

　　所有这一切使得新政府陷入了一个与其前任相似的困境中。对银行风险资产的快速清理会导致公众资金的严重短缺。然而，如果放任银行业稀里糊涂地进行自救，也有各种各样的成本。尽管欧洲央行的三年期贷款项目已经缓解了西班牙银行的资金压力，但是信贷紧缩已经不可避免。根据法国巴黎银行的的估计，在2011年，西班牙上市银行的贷款发放收缩了3.7%。这家投行还预计，贷款紧缩趋势在今明两年仍会持续。信贷紧缩风险会进一步恶化经济环境，加剧银行的损失。要求银行提高准备金对于改革来说是关键一步，但是西班牙政府可能到了需要一个新的改革计划的时候了。

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