经济学人74:洪博培,完美无瑕的人

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　　洪博培

　　Picture perfect

　　完美无瑕的人

　　But can Utah’s impressive ex-governor catch up with the front-runner for the Republican nomination¹, his fellow-Mormon Mitt² Romney?

　　不过这位让人钦佩的犹他州前州长，能在共和党提名竞选中追上暫居领先的摩门教教友米特?罗姆尼么？

　　May 26th 2011 | DURHAM, NEW HAMPSHIRE | from the print edition

　　“I’M A margin-of-error guy,” Jon Huntsman cheerfully admits to an audience of a few dozen at a grand lakeside home in New Hampshire. Support for his putative³ presidential bid, he explains, registers in the low single digits⁴ in most polls—a level so low as to be meaningless. He and his family are “grateful that anyone would want to show up and shake our hands”.

　　“我是民意调查报告中可忽略的误差值”乔恩?亨茨曼在新罕布什尔州的一座豪华湖边别墅的家里很高兴的对几十位听众的承认说。大多数民调显示，假定他竞选总统的话，支持他的选民数只是很小的个位数。他解释说这样低的支持率不是没有任何意义的，他和家人真诚的感谢那些站出来支持他的人。

　　Yet most pundits⁵ count Mr Huntsman as one of the leading contenders for the Republican nomination, alongside his fellow former governors Mitt Romney and Tim Pawlenty. In part, that is because the field is steadily⁶ narrowing: Mitch Daniels, another governor with a strong following among fiscal⁷ conservatives, bowed out of the race this week. Apart from Mr Huntsman himself, who says he will decide definitively⁸ whether to run next month, there are now only two possible entrants of any stature⁹ still on the sidelines: Sarah Palin and Michele Bachmann. There is talk that Mrs Bachmann, in particular, is about to join the fray¹⁰, but both she and Mrs Palin are right-wing firebrands with a limited, albeit¹¹ devoted¹², following.

　　不过，大多数专家把他和他的同事前麻州州长米特?罗姆尼还有蒂姆?帕兰提一样视为共和党的主要竞选者之一。这在一定程度上是因为竞选战场的在稳步缩小。另一位在财政上带有浓厚保守色彩的州长米齐?丹尼尔斯（印州州长）在本周已退出竞选。除了亨茨曼很确切地说他将在下个月决定是否参加竞选外，还有两位颇有声望的潜在竞选人萨拉?佩林（阿拉斯加州长——译者注）和米歇尔?巴克曼（明尼苏达州共和党参议员——译者注）仍在旁观。有传言特别提到巴克曼夫人说她将参与竞选，不过她和佩林女士都是右翼煽动分子，并且有一批虽然忠诚但数量有限的追随者。

　　The hype about Mr Huntsman also stems from his impressive résumé, including a term-and-a-bit as governor of Utah, a stint¹³ as ambassador to China (he speaks fluent Mandarin), various high-powered jobs in Washington and several spells in the family business. For all his self-deprecation, he appears on the verge¹⁴ of launching a determined¹⁵ campaign, having recruited staff, sounded out fund-raisers and tested the waters with a five-day tour of New Hampshire, which will hold the first Republican primary early next year.

　　对于亨茨曼的宣传起因于他出色的个人履历，他任犹他州州长一个任期多，担任过一段时间的驻华大使（能说一口流利的普通话），在华盛顿担任过不同的要职，并在家住企业中工作过一段时间。尽管他【表面】谦逊，但看来他将要参加一场志在必得的竞选活动。他有一支竞选队伍，试探那些可能的竞选基金募捐者，利用五天的新罕布什尔执行为竞选试水。明年的早些时候在新罕布什尔将举行共和党的首场党内初选。

　　On his swing through the state, after the usual tropes about being a father first and foremost, saluting¹⁶ the service of veterans and relishing¹⁷ the give-and-take with the locals, Mr Huntsman spoke¹⁸ chiefly about his desire to revive the economy through a new “industrial revolution”. America could bring one about, he argues, by reducing its debt, lowering and simplifying taxes, cutting regulation and increasing the exploitation of domestic sources of energy. The alternative, he says, is a decade of stagnation¹⁹ and decline.

　　在他贯穿该州的行程中，除了老生常谈怎么做个好爸爸，慰问现役老兵还有和当地人友好的交换意见外，亨茨曼主要地谈了他想要通过一场新的“产业改革”重振经济的愿望。他说美国可以通过减少债务，减少和简化税收，剔除一些规章制度，增加国内能源资源的开采量来实现这一愿望。他说，除此美国的另一个选择是未来十年内的经济停滞和衰退。

　　But unlike Mr Pawlenty, who officially launched his campaign this week, Mr Huntsman does not cite litanies of grim statistics, let alone blame Barack Obama for them. Indeed, Mr Huntsman usually mentions Mr Obama only to explain that when the president offered him the job of ambassador to China, he accepted out of a sense of duty. Politicians from both parties only want what is best for America, he says, and the country would be a better place if everyone acknowledged as much and kept political debate more civil.

　　不过不像鲍雷蒂（前明尼苏达州长——译者注）在本周正式宣布参与选举那样，亨茨曼没有引用那些冗长且糟糕的数据，更不用说以此来批评巴拉克?奥巴马（现任总统——译者注）。事实上，通常亨茨曼提到奥巴马都只是为了解释当总统提名他为驻华大使时，他是出于对国家的责任才接受的。两党的政府人员都想把最好的给美国，他说，美国会变得更好，如果每个人都能承认政治上的不同立场，而且都能使这些争论以更加温和的方式解决。

　　Right-wing Republicans see all this as evidence of wishy-washiness. They complain that Mr Huntsman not only worked for Mr Obama, but also called him “a remarkable²⁰ leader” in a gushing²¹ letter thanking him for the job. As governor, he defended lots of causes considered heretical by many conservatives, including Mr Obama’s economic stimulus²², civil unions for gay couples and a cap-and-trade scheme to reduce emissions²³ of greenhouse gases. He has also advocated allowing illegal immigrants brought to America as children to attend state universities on the same basis as native-born locals.

　　共和党的右派把这些看做是他缺乏决心的证据，他们抱怨说亨茨曼不仅为奥巴马工作，而且还在一封殷勤的信中感谢奥巴马给他的工作，并称赞奥巴马是位“了不起的总统”。在他的州长任内他支持大量的被很多保守人士视为异端的举措，如支持奥巴马的经济刺激计划，承认同性恋“夫妻”的民事结合，支持旨在减少温室气体排放的限额贸易计划，他同时也主张允许非法移民到美国的孩子能和土生土长的美国孩子在相同的标准下到州立大学念书。

　　Yet in most respects Mr Huntsman has an unimpeachably²⁴ conservative record. He presided over the biggest tax cut in Utah’s history. He instituted health-care reforms of a much less meddling²⁵ sort than those embraced by Mr Romney when he was governor of Massachusetts. He signed various bills designed to discourage abortion²⁶ and encourage gun-ownership. He was re-elected in 2008 with 78% of the vote in one of the most fiercely Republican states in the nation, and left office with lofty approval ratings.

　　不过，亨茨曼在很多方面也有无可指责的保守记录。他实施了犹他州有史以来最大规模的减税运动，他推行的医疗改革比罗姆尼在马萨诸塞州时的医疗改革涉及的种类要少得多。他签署了很多旨在减少流产和鼓励私人持枪的议案。2008年，他在这个国家最猛烈共和党州以78%的得票率再次当选州长。（2009年）以极高的支持率离职。

　　Whether Mr Huntsman can appeal to red-blooded Republicans in the primaries will depend in part on the quality of his campaign. Many of the staff he has lined up are veterans of the presidential bids of John McCain, who won the Republican nomination in 2008 despite his reputation as a relative liberal. Mr Huntsman seems quite relaxed on the hustings²⁷, taking up an impromptu²⁸ pool game at a veterans’ club, for example (he lost), and teasing the locals about their accents. Unlike Mr Romney, he seems comfortable in a denim²⁹ jacket, plaid shirt and corduroy trousers; his wife and two of his daughters accompanied him across New Hampshire in fashionable skinny jeans. His staff is happy to advertise that he dropped out of high school to play in a rock band, and is an avid³⁰ motorcyclist.

　　亨茨曼是否能在初选中成功的吸引那些精力充沛的共和党人在一定程度上取决于竞选活动的好坏。他的竞选班底中有很多是帮约翰?麦凯恩参加竞选的资深助选人员，麦凯恩在2008年赢得了党内提名尽管他有一个相对自由主义者的名声。亨茨曼对这次竞选活动表现的很轻松。例如，他在老兵俱乐部即兴来了场撞球比赛（他输了），还和当地人一起打趣他们的口音。与罗姆尼不同的是，他看起来很适合穿牛仔夹克，格子花呢上衣和灯芯绒长裤。他夫人和两个女儿都身着时尚紧身牛仔裤陪着他穿越了新罕布什尔。他的竞选队伍很乐意宣传他从高中退学参加摇滚乐队的那段经历和他对摩托车的热爱。

　　But Mr Huntsman is not exactly the salt of the earth. His father made billions selling packaging to firms like McDonald’s, and worked in the Nixon administration. His stump³¹ speech can seem quite esoteric at times, with references to the inaugural³² speech of William Harrison, America’s ninth president, and to Japan’s “lost decade” of economic stagnation. He keeps banging on about the effects of the public debt on the exchange rate—natural enough for a former ambassador and trade negotiator, perhaps, but hardly the main concern in the eyes of most deficit³³ hawks³⁴.

　　不过亨茨曼并不是社会的中坚分子，他爸爸通过买包装给像麦当劳这样的公司积攒了数十亿美元的资产，而且曾在尼克松政府中任职。他的政治演讲有时让听众听不明白，因为他会引用美国民众不熟悉的内容。如第九任美国总统威廉?哈里森的就职演讲或者日本在“失去的十年”中的经济衰退情况。他不断强调是国债对汇率的影响而不是鹰派眼中的关要关注点财政赤字，或许，这对一个前大使和贸易谈判代表来说很正常。

　　Moreover, Mr Huntsman, like Mr Romney, is a Mormon, a faith viewed with some suspicion by the evangelical Christians³⁵ who make up a sizeable share of the Republican primary electorate³⁶. In fact, Mr Romney and Mr Huntsman are (distant) cousins, and have much in common. They are both sons of billionaire businessmen-turned-politicians; both have presidential looks and picture-perfect families; both are considered ideologically³⁷ unreliable by many on the right.

　　此外，亨茨曼和罗姆尼一样都是摩门教教徒，这一教派广受福音派基督教的猜疑，而在共和党的主要选区中福音派基督教选民占了很大一部分。事实上，罗姆尼和亨茨曼是表兄弟（远亲）。两人有很多共同点，他们都是亿万富翁的儿子，然后由商从政。两人都有总统像和完美无瑕的家庭。两人都被很多右翼视为思想上靠不住的人。

　　Mr Huntsman, however, does not seem racked by doubts. Although he insists he is still “kicking the tyres” and needs to discuss it with his family, Mrs Huntsman says she does not foresee objections of the sort that caused Mr Daniels to pass. He has governed a state, he knows about foreign policy and he oozes³⁸ confidence; it would be a pity if Mr Huntsman did not run.

　　不过，对亨茨曼来说这些怀疑并没有使他为难。尽管他坚持说他还在考虑中而且需要和家人商量。亨茨曼夫人说她不认为会有那些类似导致丹尼斯退出的反对意见出现。亨茨曼曾执政过一个州，他自信满满而且深谙外交之道。如果他不参选的话真是让人非常遗憾啊。

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