经济学人96:中国-三峡大坝

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　　三峡大坝

　　Choking on the Three Gorges²

　　阻塞的三峡

　　China’s government at last owns up to problems at its monster dam

　　中国政府最终承认巨型大坝导致的问题

　　RAIN along the middle and lower Yangzi River this week has helped alleviate³ the region’s worst drought in 50 years. But it has not doused⁴ a storm of criticism of the Three Gorges dam upriver, including allegations that it contributed to the disaster. Opponents of the colossal⁵ edifice⁶ have been emboldened⁷ by rare government admissions of environmental and other “urgent” problems caused by the dam.

　　这周在长江中下游沿线的降雨缓解了这一地区近50年来最恶劣的干旱灾害。但这并没有平息对三峡大坝上游潮水般的批评，包括其造成此次干旱的断言。政府罕见地承认三峡大坝诱发了环境和其他“紧急”问题，这使得反对这一巨型工程的人们声势愈烈。

　　In private, officials have worried about the project for some time and occasionally their doubts have surfaced in the official media. But the government itself has refused to acknowledge them. When the project was approved by the rubber-stamp parliament in 1992, debate was stifled⁸ by the oppressive political atmosphere of the time, following the Tiananmen Square massacre⁹ three years earlier. Last July, with the dam facing its biggest flood crest¹⁰ since completion in 2006, officials hinted that they might have overstated its ability to control flooding. On May 18th, with the dam again in the spotlight¹¹ because of the drought, a cabinet meeting chaired by the prime minister, Wen Jiabao, went further in acknowledging drawbacks.

　　在私下里，政府官员们在很长时间里已经对这一工程表示过担心，他们的怀疑偶尔会在官方媒体上抛头露面。但政府自身并没有承认。1992年的国家会议上，当三峡工程未经审核就被批准时，正值3年前天安门事件发生不久，反对声音被当时压抑的政治氛围所笼罩。上个7月，随着大坝面临06年竣工以来的一次最大的洪水，政府官员暗示，他们可能高估了三峡防洪的能力。5月18号，干旱再一次使三峡成为热点，在温家宝主持的政府会议上，进一步承认其存在弊端。

　　Having called the dam “hugely beneficial overall”, the cabinet’s statement said there were problems relating to the resettlement of 1.4m people, to the environment and to the “prevention of geological disasters” that urgently needed addressing. The dam, it said, had had “a certain impact” on navigation, irrigation and water-supply downstream. Some of these problems had been forecast at the design stage or spotted¹² during construction. But they had been “difficult to resolve effectively because of limitations imposed by conditions at the time.” It did not elaborate.

　　曾今一度声称大坝“利益无穷”，小组人员表示有关一千四百万群众的安置、环境和“防止地质灾害”等问题都急需处理。据说大坝必然对航运、灌溉和下游水源补给产生影响。其中一些问题在设计阶段已被暴露或者在施工阶段被警告。但是因为“当时现实条件的限制而很难有效解决”三峡工程并不周密。

　　The confession¹³ has triggered a flurry of articles in official newspapers about the dam’s deficiencies. Some recalled a warning given by one of China’s most famous critics, Huang Wanli, before his death ten years ago that the dam would silt¹⁴ up the reservoir basin and sooner or later have to be blown up. The Oriental Morning Post even filled its front page with a picture of Mr Huang, who was persecuted¹⁵ by Mao Zedong for his criticism of the Sanmenxia dam on the Yellow River. Sanmenxia was the nation’s pride until its reservoir silted¹⁶ up. On June 7th Shanghai Daily, an English-language paper, called the Three Gorges “that monstrous¹⁷ damming project”.

　　政府的承认激发了关于大坝弊端大量官方文章的出现。有一些回忆起中国最出名的反对者——黄万里的警告，在他逝世十年前就指出，大坝因泥沙淤积最终被炸掉。东方晨报甚至将黄的照片刊登在头版上，他曾因为批评黄河上的三门峡水电站而受到毛泽东迫害的。在储水区淤塞之前，三门峡一直都是这个国家的骄傲。在6月7号的上海日报上，一份英文刊上，将三峡叫做“怪兽般的水利工程”。

　　Its effect on the drought is difficult to prove. Officials deny assertions that the dam and its more than 600-km (370-mile) reservoir might have affected¹⁸ the regional climate. But one official, Wang Jingquan of the Yangzi’s Water Resources Committee, conceded that the dam had lowered water levels in two of the country’s biggest freshwater lakes, making the impact worse. The rapid lowering of the reservoir’s level has also raised fears of landslides¹⁹ and earthquakes. Probe International, a Canadian NGO, published a report on June 1st by Chinese government experts saying the dam had caused “significantly increased” seismic²⁰ activity.

　　三峡对干旱的影响很难证实。当局拒绝声明大坝和它超过600千米的储水区会影响区域气候。但有一位官员，长江水力资源委员Wang Jingquan承认三峡降低了国内两大淡水湖泊的水位，导致干旱更加严重。急速下降的库区水位同样增加了滑坡和地震的危险。中国政府专家根据加拿大的NGO国际调查，于7月1日发布一篇报道，表示三峡大坝已经引起了严重的地质活动。

　　This debate has erupted at a time of heightened political uncertainty²¹ as the Communist Party prepares for sweeping²² leadership changes next year. The government’s decision to be open about doubts that had previously²³ been harboured in private could reflect struggles between outgoing leaders and their still-influential predecessors²⁴. The earlier generation had been responsible for getting the project started in the 1990s. But President Hu Jintao and Mr Wen did not attend the dam’s completion ceremony in May 2006.

　　这场争论在政治高度不确定的时期爆发，因为共产党正准备明年的领导权的交接。政府公开这一曾被私下隐瞒的质疑的决定，能够反映出即将离职领导人同他们仍然有影响力的前辈们之间的斗争。上一代领导人已于1990年对三峡工程的实施做出担保。但是胡锦涛主席和温家宝总理并没有参加2006年三峡工程的竣工庆典。

　　For liberal intellectuals, the furore has provided an opportunity to push back against hardliners (who tend to favour grandiose²⁵ displays of state power). One liberal newspaper published an interview with Mao Yushi, a prominent economist²⁶ who has been fiercely denounced recently by hardliners because of an article he wrote attacking Mao Zedong. Mr Mao (the economist rather than the Helmsman) contributed to a book criticising the Three Gorges dam which was published in 1989, shortly before the Tiananmen protests. It was later banned.

　　对于自由知识分子，这一热议为反对政策制定者（热衷于浮夸地展示国家力量的人）提供了机会。一家自由报刊发表了采访Mao Yushi的报道，他是一位杰出的经济学家，最近由于写了一篇文章批判毛泽东，受到领导层激烈抨击。毛先生（是经济学家而非伟大的舵手）在天安门事件发生不久前，于1989年发表的著述中批判了三峡大坝。随后就被封杀了。

　　In the interview Mr Mao accused the government of shuffling²⁷ off responsibility for the dam 20 years ago by ignoring anti-dam experts and then getting the legislature to approve the project. “If there are any problems in future, you won’t be able to find anyone. There is nobody taking real responsibility,” he said.

　　在采访中，毛先生控诉政府20年前通过无视反对修建三峡的专家的意见然后赞成实施取得合法性的方式推卸责任。“如果将来会出现什么问题，你将找不到任何负责人。没有人会真正负责，”他说到。

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