经济学人162:韬光养晦为称雄

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　　印度及其周边国家

　　New humility¹ for the hegemon

　　韬光养晦为称雄

　　Too slowly, India is realising that poor relations with its South Asian neighbours hold back its global ambitions

　　如梦初醒，印度现在才意识到以邻为壑会拖其全球野心之后腿

　　Jul 30th 2011 | from the print edition

　　NO ONE loves a huge neighbour. For all that, India’s relations with the countries that ring it are abysmal². Of the eight with which it shares a land or maritime³ boundary, only two can be said to be happy with India: tiny Maldives, where India has the only foreign embassy and dispenses⁴ much largesse⁵, and Bhutan, which has a policy of being happy about everything. Among its other South Asian neighbours, the world’s biggest democracy is incredible mainly because of its amazing ability to generate wariness⁶ and resentment⁷.

　　没有国家喜欢与大国比邻而居。尽管如此，印度与其周边国家的关系只能用糟糕透顶来形容。在与其共壤或共海上边界的八个国家中，只有两个国家能说对印度感到满意：极小的马尔代夫和不丹。印度大使馆是马尔代夫境内唯一的外国大使馆，并在马尔大夫大行慷慨；不丹奉行与世无争的政策，对一切都感到满意。在其南亚邻居看来，印度让人产生戒心和愤恨的惊人能力，实在与“世界最大民主国家”难以匹配。

　　Until recently it operated a shoot-to-kill policy towards migrant workers and cattle rustlers along its long border with Bangladesh. Over the years it has meddled⁸ madly in Nepal’s internal affairs. In Myanmar India snuggles up to the country’s thuggish dictators, leaving the beleaguered⁹ opposition¹⁰ to wonder what happened to India’s championing of democracy. Relations with Sri Lanka are conflicted. It treats China with more respect, but feuds¹¹ with it about its border.

　　直到近来，印度还对跨越边境的孟加拉国民工和偷牛贼施行“格杀勿论”的政策；多年来，它对尼泊尔的内政疯狂干涉；在缅甸，印度与该国凶残的独裁者沆瀣一气，遭围攻的反对派很想知道印度倡导的民主究竟发生了什么变故；印度与斯里兰卡的关系也是冲突不断；它对中国要更尊重一些，不过因边界问题，两者也是世仇。

　　As for Pakistan, relations are defined by their animosity. One former Indian diplomat¹² likened reconciling the two nuclear-tipped powers to treating two patients whose only disease is an allergy¹³ to each other. The observation underscores the fact that it takes two to have bad relations, and to be fair to India plenty of problems press in on it—many of them with their roots in India’s bloody¹⁴ partition in 1947. Pakistan has used a long-running territorial¹⁵ dispute over Kashmir as a reason to launch wars. It also exports terrorism to India, sometimes with the connivance¹⁶ of parts of the Pakistani state. India thinks Bangladesh also harbours India-hating terrorists.

　　至于说巴基斯坦，仇恨是两国的关系的主流。前印度外交官将调解印巴这两个装有核弹头国家的关系比作治疗两个病人——他们的唯一病症就是彼此过敏。评论认为一个巴掌拍不响，糟糕的关系是双方共同造成的。平心而论，双方关系如此糟糕因归咎于印度。诸多问题堆积叠加于是出现今天的局面——许多问题可以追溯到1947年的血腥分治。两国克什米尔问题上的长期争端，为巴基斯坦挑起战争提供了借口。巴基斯坦同样向印度输出恐怖主义——有时会在巴基斯坦国家部分地区的纵容默许之下。印度认为，孟加拉共和国也藏匿有仇恨印度的恐怖主义分子。

　　With the notable exception of India’s prime minister, Manmohan Singh, who has heroically persisted in dialogue with Pakistan in the face of provocations¹⁷ and domestic resistance, India’s dealings with its neighbours are mostly driven by arrogance¹⁸ and neglect. It has shared shockingly little of its economic dynamism and new-found prosperity with those around it. Just 5% of South Asia’s trade is within the region.

　　面对挑拨和国内反抗，印度总理辛格勇敢地坚持与巴基斯坦进行对话，在外交中采取难能可贵的主动姿态。总体而言，印度对其邻居都是傲慢和怠慢的。印度极少与周边邻国分享经济活力和新近取得的繁荣。南亚贸易中，只有5%是在这一地区完成的。

　　Too little and too late, the neglect is starting to be replaced by engagement (see article). This week Sonia Gandhi, dynastic leader of India’s ruling Congress Party, visited Bangladesh—a first. And on July 27th India’s foreign minister hosted his Pakistani counterpart, the first such meeting in a year. He promised a “comprehensive, serious and sustained” dialogue.

　　亡羊补牢，其犹未晚？近来，印度的态度由怠慢转向合作（看文章）。本周，印度执政的国大党主席索尼娅·甘地史无前例地访问了孟加拉共和国。7月27日，印度外交部长与巴基斯坦外交部长举行会谈——今年以来这种会谈尚属首次。他承诺本着“理解、认真、持续”的精神展开对话。

　　A new regional engagement is prodded²⁰ by two things. China’s rapid and increasingly assertive²¹ rise challenges India’s own regional dominance. As a foundation for its rise, China pursued a vigorous “smile diplomacy” towards its neighbours that stands in contrast to slothful Indian energies. The smile has sometimes turned to snarl²² of late (see Banyan). Even so, China’s engagement with its neighbours has allowed it both to prosper¹⁹ and to spread influence.

　　两件事促成一份新的地区承诺。首先，中国迅速而愈发自信的崛起对印度自身地区主导地位是一大挑战。作为崛起的基础，中国对邻居奉行强有力的“微笑外交”，与印度的懒散形成鲜明的对比。最近，这种微笑外交有时会变成咆哮（看菩提专栏）。即便如此，中国与其邻居的承诺保证其既能繁荣昌盛又能扩大影响。

　　Our interactive²³ map displays the various territorial claims of India, Pakistan and China from each country's perspective

　　《经济学人》互动地图展示了印度、巴基斯坦和中国各方视角的领土诉求

　　Second, dynamic India can hardly soar globally while mired²⁴ in its own backyard. Promoting regional prosperity is surely the best way to persuade neighbours that its own rise is more of an opportunity than a threat. Yet India lacks any kind of vision. A region-wide energy market using northern neighbours’ hydropower would transform South Asian economies. Vision, too, could go a long way to restoring ties that history has cut asunder²⁵, such as those between Karachi and Mumbai, once sister commercial cities but now as good as on different planets; and Kolkata and its huge former hinterland in Bangladesh. Without development and deeper integration²⁶, other resentments²⁷ will be hard to soothe²⁸. It falls on the huge unloved neighbour to make the running.

　　其次，其次，如果后院起火的话，就算印度再充满活力也不能在国际舞台大展拳脚。。要让邻居认为“与其说印度崛起是个威胁不如说是个机会”，促进区域繁荣是确凿无疑的最好方式。然而，印度缺乏任何形式的远见。使用北方邻国的水力发电来开发出一个区域性能源市场，这样便可以带动南亚经济发展。同样，要修复被历史切割为碎片的联系，这一怀远之道还有相当长的一段路要走。例如，卡拉奇和孟买在历史上是姊妹商业城市，现在却形同陌路，仿佛不在一个星球之上；还有加尔各答和原其孟加拉国巨大腹地亦是如此。没有发展和深入合作，很难化解其余的仇恨。而这一责任还需这个不招人待见的邻居来带头。

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