经济学人273:联合国气候变化会谈 Climate-change talks

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　　气候变化会谈

　　Wilted¹ greenery

　　凋零的青葱

　　The UN’s latest round of climate-change talks open in Durban. Even avoiding deadlock² would be an achievement

　　联合国最新一轮气候变化会谈在德班开幕，这次会谈只要不走进死胡同就算不错了

　　THOUSANDS of anxious environmentalists, hard-eyed negotiators and bemused journalists gathered in Durban this week for the UN’s annual climate-change circus. Saving the planet, the main item on its agenda two years ago, in Copenhagen, was not uppermost in their minds. Saving the circus was: the failure in Copenhagen to forge a binding⁴ agreement to mitigate⁵ the world’s carbon emissions⁶ could yet lead to a breakdown⁷ of the whole UN process in Durban.

　　本周无数焦虑的环保人士、针锋相对的谈判代表和迷茫的记者在德班聚集，参加联合国一年一度热闹的气候变化会谈。对于他们来说，最重要的不是两年前在哥本哈根议事日程上的主要议题——拯救我们的地球，而是拯救这一次的会谈。因为哥本哈根会谈没能打造出有约束力的协议来减少世界二氧化碳排放量，这有可能导致本次联合国在德班的整个会议进程土崩瓦解。

　　To avoid that, negotiators have until December 9th to reach three goals. Least dauntingly⁸, they must nail down the details of initiatives agreed on in Cancún last year, chiefly the Green Climate Fund. This aims to help poor countries curb⁹ their emissions and adapt to global warming. It is supposed to be stocked with some of the $100 billion that rich countries have promised poor ones by 2020.

　　为了避免这种情况，截至到12月9日谈判代表必须要达到三个目标。还不那么让人失望的是，他们必须确定去年坎昆通过的新方案的细节，其中最主要的绿色气候基金。这项基金的目的在于帮助经济落后的国家控制二氧化碳排放量以及适应全球变暖。按照富裕国家对贫穷国家的承诺，到2020年，这项基金应该能达到1000亿之多。

　　Little actual cash will be proffered¹⁰ in Durban: progress will be limited to working out the details of the fund’s design, including the relative powers of donors¹¹ and recipients¹², and to its possible role in wooing investment. Even this is contentious¹³, as America wants a bigger role for the private sector¹⁴. But such spats¹⁵ should prove surmountable¹⁶. Alongside progress on another promised institution, to spread green technology to poor countries, the fund is Durban’s likeliest success.

　　德班会谈会提供更少的现金，此次取得的进步仅限于制定出这笔资金计划用途的细节，包括捐赠国和受赠国的相对实力对比，以及它在吸引投资中可能起到的作用。美国想在“私有部门”中起到更大的作用，尽管这使这笔款项还存在争议，但是这样的小吵小闹还是可以平息的。加上另外一个前途光明的机构所取得的进步，他们会一起把绿色技术延伸到经济落后国家。这项资金的建立是德班会谈最有可能取得的成功。

　　Much trickier¹⁷ will be reconciling the demands of developing countries for an extension of the UN’s Kyoto protocol¹⁸ with the determination of most developed ones to bin³ it. The world’s only binding agreement to curb emissions has been a colossal¹⁹ failure. Since it was negotiated in 1997 global emissions have risen by over a quarter, mostly in developing countries. The treaty does not curb their emissions, which are now 58% of the total; China alone is responsible for 23%. The second-biggest polluter, America, (with 20%) is also free to emit, as it has not ratified²⁰ the treaty.

　　协调发展中国家的要求，使它们同意大多数发达国家都会拒绝的《京都议定书》的附加条件会变得更加困难。世界上仅有的对控制排放量有约束力的协议经历了重大的失败，因为它是在1997年协商出来的，这个时候（二氧化碳）全球排放量增长已超过四分之一，而且主要集中在发展中国家。这个协议并没有限制它们的排放量，如今其排放总量占世界总量的58％，中国自己就占23％，紧随其后的第二大污染源是美国（排放量占20％）。由于美国并未签署协议，因此它的二氧化碳排放是免费的。

　　Developed countries that did ratify²¹ Kyoto feel cheated. Japan and Russia have rejected a second round of emission-cutting under its aegis²², after their current commitments expire at the end of 2012. Canada, which will hugely overshoot its Kyoto target, is reported to be considering quitting the treaty altogether. “Kyoto is the past,” said its environment minister, Peter Kent, before setting out for Durban.

　　签署《京都议定书》的发达国家觉得吃亏了。日本和俄罗斯拒绝到2012年底他们的现行义务到期后在“减排”的赞助下进行第二轮减排。据报道即将大幅超过京都排放量限定目标的加拿大“将考虑彻底放弃这一协定”。加拿大环境保护部官员皮特?肯特在去德班之前就说“《京都议定书》已经是过去时了”。

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