经济学人301:法国广告业的前辈仍宝刀未老

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　　一法国的跨国公司董事长说，“莫里斯是无人能代的”。当谈起对其朋友，全球广告业巨头阳狮集团的老板莫利斯.列维的评价时，这位董事长难掩溢美之词。但是，他也提出了异议。“当你自认为无法取代时，你可能犯了一生中最严重的错误，”他说，“我不知道如果我找不到合适的接班人，我的整个职业生涯都被毁了。”

　　Mr Lévy’s longevity⁵ at the top is unusual in a business known for short attention spans. But Publicis is unusual, too. Since the Paris-based firm was founded by Marcel Bleustein-Blanchet in 1926, it has had only two bosses: the founder⁶ and Mr Lévy, who took over in 1987. Mr Lévy, who turns 70 in February, had planned to retire at the end of this year, but the board recently raised the age limit for its members to 75. On November 29th Publicis said that all of them had been reappointed for four years.

　　列维先生在以注意力转瞬即逝著称的行业中长期占据高层领导的位置实属罕见。但是阳狮集团也是一个非比寻常的企业。自从这家总部在巴黎的公司由莫里斯.布朗谢于1926年创建以来，它只有过两位老板：创始人和于1987年掌权的列维先生。今年二月份就满70岁的列维先生，已计划年底退休。但是最近董事会将其成员的退休年限提高到了75岁。11月29日，阳狮集团声称所有的董事会成员将再任职四年。

　　The board wants him to stay, says Mr Lévy, because the economic crisis could last, so they want a safe pair of hands at the top. He sees lots of uncertainty⁷ next year, though he does not think that companies will cut back advertising spending as sharply as they did after the collapse⁸ of Lehman Brothers in 2008. Their response to the dire⁹ state of the economy will vary from one industry and country to the next. In Europe, not surprisingly, the outlook is bleaker¹⁰ the farther south you go.

　　列维先生说，集团董事会要他留下来，因为经济危机可能会持续一段时间，他们希望有经验且让人放心的人能在高层掌舵。他看到了明年的许多不确定性，但是他认为各公司不会像在2008年雷曼兄弟破产后大幅度地减缩广告开支。他们对严峻的经济形势的反应因各行业各国家的情况不同而各异。在欧洲，其经济状况越往南越糟糕，这一点都不奇怪。

　　Yet the forecast for global ad spending in the next few years released on December 5th by ZenithOptimedia, an agency owned by Publicis, is fairly rosy¹¹. It says spending will rise by 4.7% in 2012 to $486 billion, having gone up by 3.5% this year. A good chunk¹² of next year’s increase is due to events that come around every four years: a presidential election in America, the summer Olympics and the European football championship. The forecast for the next two years, though, is even better: 5.2% growth in 2013 and 5.8% in 2014 (see chart.)

　　但是阳狮集团旗下的ZenithOptimedia公司于12月5日发布的对于明年全球广告开支的预测却相当地乐观。该报告认为今年各公司广告开支已上涨了3.5% ，2012年将上升4.7%达到4860亿美元。明年广告开支上升的原因主要归于每隔四年出现的大事：美国的总统选举；夏季奥运会和欧洲的足球锦标赛。但是对于未来两年的预测更加地乐观：2013年、2014年分别增长5.2%和5.8%（如表所示）

　　The internet and emerging economies are the two fastest-growing areas in the ad world. Mr Lévy is betting big on both. Five years ago he bought Digitas, an internet-ad agency, for $1.3 billion. Some thought that pricey. Undeterred, Mr Lévy bought Razorfish, an American digital agency, for $530m in 2009, and Rosetta, another, for $575m in May this year. Today internet advertising accounts for more than 30% of the revenue of Publicis, against around 20% for WPP, its British rival.

　　互联网和新兴经济体是在广告业中增速最快的两大领域。列维先生对这两个领域都寄于了厚望。五年前他以13亿美元收购了网络广告机构Digitas。有人认为那次收购是天价。列维先生并未怯步，2009年他以5.3亿美元购下美国的数字处理公司Razorfish。同一年的五月以5.75亿美元将另一家数字处理公司收入囊中。现如今网络广告收入占阳狮集团的30%以上，其英国对手WPP仅占20%左右。

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