经济学人359:绝非易事(2)

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　　罗姆尼可相对容易地使底层40%的人免受由于税收支出减少而收入减少之苦。然而正是这个群体享用了退税政策的精华部分，根据税收政策中心的数据，他们总计才占据了税收支出11%。原因在于税收减免对于赋重税人来说价值更大；而这些人，当然都是富人。

　　The bigger challenge is crafting a reform that does not hurt the middle class at the expense of the rich. Mr Romney has pledged not to raise the preferential rate on capital gains and dividends⁷; 75% of those benefits go to the top 1% of households. That group also prospers⁸ most from Mr Romney’s proposed cut in the top income-tax rate, to 28% from 35%. So Mr Romney would probably have to target the rest of the upper quintile, the upper-middle class who gain from other big tax breaks for employer-provided health care, mortgage interest, retirement⁹ savings¹⁰, state and local taxes and municipal bond interest.

　　更大的挑战是进行一场并不会伤害中产阶级利益，并损害富余阶层利益的改革。罗姆尼已保证不会提高资本收入和股息的税率；1%顶尖的家庭将享受这些福利中的75%。这一群体从罗姆尼提出的将高收入税率由35%降至28%政策中获益最多。所以罗姆尼可能将不得不瞄准其余的上层阶级分度，即那些从雇主提供的医疗保险，按揭利息，养老储蓄，国家，地方，市级的证券利息中获得大笔税收减免的中上层阶级。

　　Even if Mr Romney could devise a workable plan, overcoming political resistance is another matter. Optimists¹¹ note that a 33-year-old tax credit for ethanol, after surviving numerous assassination¹² attempts, finally died last year. But the $6 billion saved by that was trivial. By contrast, Congress has steadfastly¹³ ignored Mr Obama’s proposal in his first budget (repeated ever since) to limit the tax break for mortgage interest and charitable deductions for rich households. Both ideas were fiercely condemned¹⁴ by interest groups. “As much as I’m a card-carrying member of the broaden-the-base, lower-the-rates, go-after-tax-expenditures club,” says Mr Marron of the TPC, “the politics and underlying¹⁵ economics suggest it’s hard to raise the money you need for these grand plans.”

　　即便罗姆尼可以想出一个可行的计划，要抵御政治上的阻力又是另一回事了。乐观主义者注意到，实行长达33年之久的对乙醇的税收补贴，尽管扛住多次试图废除它的努力，最终还是在去年被废除。然而省下的60亿美金不过是沧海一粟。与此相反的是，国会坚持不懈的忽视奥巴马总统在他的首次预算中提出的（从此之后一直重申的）限制对于按揭利息和富裕家庭慈善性减税的税收减免。这两种想法都受到了相关利益群体的强烈谴责。来自税收政策中心的马兰先生说道“只要我还是扩大税基，降低税率，追逐税收支出的正式一员，政治局势和潜在的经济状况表明，难以收集那些伟大计划所需的钱。”

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