经济学人369:希望永不泯灭

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　　阿拉伯世界的起义

　　Hope springs eternal

　　希望永不泯灭

　　The Arab Uprising: The Unfinished Revolutions of the New Middle East.By Marc Lynch.

　　阿拉伯世界的起义：未完结的新中东革命。马克?里奇著。

　　THE Arab spring has, inevitably¹, spawned² a gaggle of instant books.

　　轰轰烈烈的阿拉伯之春不可避免导致了大量实时书籍的涌现。

　　But it was much easier to make sense of the region’s upheavals³ a year ago, in the first flush of excitement, than it is today.

　　但是现在解释这场大动乱爆发的合理之处，与一年前革命之火熊熊点燃之时相比困难多了。

　　With Egypt languishing⁴ under military rule, Libya groping for national unity⁵,

　　现在，埃及在军事统治下日趋衰弱，利比亚在黑暗中摸索国家统一的道路，

　　Syria’s body-count rising and only Tunisia witnessing a relatively⁶ smooth political transition, is there still a single unifying⁷ narrative⁸?

　　叙利亚起义堆积了累累白骨，也仅仅只有突尼斯处于相对平稳的政治过渡期。在这种情形之下，阐述这场革命是否还是和当初的口吻相一致呢？

　　Marc Lynch, an American scholar and blogger with ties to the Obama administration, believes there is.

　　马克?里奇认为是这样的。他是一位美国学者并且为奥巴马政府撰写博客。

　　Although alive to the setbacks of the past year, he remains⁹ hopeful.

　　虽然认识到过去一年挫折重重，他仍然对阿拉伯世界的起义保持着乐观的态度。

　　In “The Arab Uprising”, he argues that the old status quo in the Middle East has been shattered for good, and that the rest of us had better get used to this brave but baffling new world.

　　在《阿拉伯世界的起义》一书中，他认为中东世界陈腐现状的大洗牌是一件好事，余下的人们应接受这个充满勇气又令人困惑的新世界。

　　To explain today’s events, he goes back to the 1950s, when the revolution of Gamal Abdel Nasser in Egypt set Arab pulses racing¹⁰.

　　为了解释本次事件，马克?里奇回顾了上世纪50年代由迦玛尔?阿卜杜尔?纳赛尔领导的埃及革命，此次革命曾掀起阿拉伯世界如火如荼的革命浪潮。

　　But that first Arab spring died in 1967, in Israel’s humiliating defeat of the Arab armies in the six-day war—a useful warning for today’s revolutionaries that success is not preordained.

　　然而，首次的阿拉伯之春于1967年阿拉伯联军被以色列耻辱性的击败而宣告结束。这次“六日战争”对于今天的革命者们无疑是一个有益的警醒：胜利绝非上天注定。

　　Today’s Arab societies have some of the same objectives—to achieve dignity and freedom, to break with Western tutelage—but their populations are bigger,

　　今天在阿拉伯社会同样存在着一些相同的期望，那就是要争取尊严和自由、摆脱西方世界的管制。但是较之当初，他们已拥有了更加庞大的人口基础，

　　they are readier to challenge autocratic rulers and, thanks to satellite television, Facebook and Twitter, they are more intimately connected with one another and with the world.

　　更加乐意于向独裁统治者发出挑战。而卫星电视，facebook和twitter等现代信息传播工具也使他们能够与彼此、与世界保持更紧密的联系。

　　Mr Lynch, who made his name with his 2006 book, “Voices of the New Arab Public”, understands what makes Arab opinion tick.

　　2006年出版的《新阿拉伯民众的呼声》一书使马克?里奇名声大噪，他明白是什么导致了阿拉伯人民的想法。

　　His new book sets out, clearly and forthrightly¹¹, to dispel¹² Western (and especially American) illusions about the nature of change in the Arab world.

　　此次新书的出版，清楚而直截了当地打破了西方（尤其是美国）对于阿拉伯世界变革的本质所抱有的错误幻想。

　　He does not accept, for instance, that the successes of the Islamists in recent elections in Tunisia, Egypt and Morocco are cause for alarm.

　　举例来说，在近期突尼斯、埃及和摩洛哥的选举中伊斯兰教主义者大获胜利，但里奇并不认为这值得担忧。

　　It is inevitable¹³, he contends, that groups like the Muslim Brotherhood¹⁴ will benefit from an opening-up of political space, and their democratic pretensions¹⁵ should be put to the test.

　　他称，类似穆斯林兄弟会的组织从开放的政治角逐中获得优势，这是不可避免地；他们的民主主张也应该受到检验。

　　Mr Lynch also thinks the uprisings, by empowering Arab publics, have made the Palestinian issue more important. He supported military intervention¹⁶ in Libya, but opposes it in Syria.

　　他同时认为，由阿拉伯民众发起的起义也使解决巴基斯坦问题变得更为紧迫。他此前支持在利比亚的军事干涉活动，但此次反对对叙利亚进行军事干涉。

　　His account is especially useful when it comes to the regional fallout. He sees Turkey and Qatar, which have embraced the new mood, as winners; Israel and Iran as sullen¹⁷ spectators.

　　特别在涉及到地区影响的问题时，他的解释尤为合理。对于接受了新潮流的土耳其和卡塔尔，他将其视为赢家；而以色列和伊朗则是阴郁的旁观者。

　　As for America, Mr Lynch thinks Barack Obama has got some big things right: the president has understood,

　　至于美国，里奇认为奥巴马在一些重大问题上站对了位置：

　　in particular, as his critics frequently have not, that these are home-grown uprisings, neither needing nor welcoming American leadership.

　　即他认识到这是阿拉伯世界内部的动乱，既不需要也不欢迎美国的领导，而奥巴马的批评者们屡屡忽视这一点。

　　But Mr Lynch faults Mr Obama for his failure to advance Israeli-Palestinian peace, to criticise¹⁸ more firmly the suppression of Bahrain’s uprising or to develop a more effective public diplomacy¹⁹.

　　但里奇同时也指责奥巴马没能成功推动巴以和平进程，并更加坚决地批评了对巴林地区动乱的镇压或是开展更有效的公共外交。

　　Is Mr Lynch right in declaring the old status quo beyond recall? This may be too rosy²⁰.

　　是否像里奇认为的那样，阿拉伯世界陈腐的面貌经一去不返 ？这样说未免过于乐观了。

　　But of all the books on the extraordinary events of the past 15 months, this is one of the most illuminating²¹ and, for policymakers, the most challenging.

　　但是在所有介绍过去1年零3个月 阿拉伯世界变革的书里面，这本书是最富于启发的，对于政策制定者来说也是最富有挑战意味的。

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