经济学人476:叙利亚新任反对派领袖

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　　叙利亚新任反对派领袖

　　Better than the one before?

　　会比上一任更出色吗？

　　A different man faces the same problems

　　换个面孔处理相同问题

　　Jul 13th 2013 | CAIRO |From the print edition

　　Jarba’s turn at the top

　　轮到贾尔巴掌舵

　　SYRIANS can be forgiven for paying scant² attention to the inauguration³ on July 6th of a new president of the Syrian National Coalition⁴, the political opposition’s umbrella group in exile. The new man, Ahmed Jarba, is a leader of the powerful Shammar tribe, which has branches in Syria, Iraq and Saudi Arabia. A former political prisoner, he hails from the north-eastern Syrian town of Hasaka.

　　叙利亚反对派的流亡伞状组织——叙利亚全国联盟——在七月六日迎来了一位新主席，而这场就职典礼却未成为叙利亚人关注的焦点。但这也情有可原。新任主席为艾哈迈德·贾尔巴（Ahmed Jarba），他是强大的舍麦尔部族（Shammar tribe）的首领，此部族势力强大，一直延伸至叙利亚、伊拉克以及沙特阿拉伯。他出生于叙利亚东北部的哈塞克镇（Hasaka），曾经是一名政治犯。

　　He is a respected figure. Yet there is little reason to believe he will wield⁵ more influence than his predecessor⁶, Moaz al-Khatib, a prominent Damascus cleric. The rivalry⁷ of the coalition’s two main Arab backers, Saudi Arabia, which is close to Mr Jarba, and Qatar, whose preferred candidate narrowly lost the election, has long hamstrung the opposition. Two days after Mr Jarba’s election, Ghassan Hitto, a protégé of Qatar who had been appointed as an interim⁸ prime minister in March, resigned, citing his failure to form a government in exile.

　　他确实受人尊敬，然而目前仍无法确信他的影响力会超过他的前任——备受尊崇的大马士革传教士Moaz al-Khatib。沙特阿拉伯和卡塔尔是联盟中主要的阿拉伯国家支持者，而沙特与贾尔巴走的更近，卡塔尔的意向候选人则在大选中惜败。这两个国家长期以来的竞争是削弱反对派的重要原因。贾尔巴赢得大选两天后，卡塔尔的门生Ghassan Hitto宣布辞职，理由是他未能成功组建一个流亡政府。他在今年三月被任命为临时首相。

　　Mr Jarba may persuade Saudi Arabia to provide more humanitarian⁹ aid but, in view of Western anxiety over the increasing number of extremists in rebel-held parts of Syria, he is unlikely soon to secure advanced weapons to take on President Bashar Assad’s forces. Mr Assad’s tightening¹⁰ grip over the most populous¹¹ cities along a north-south axis¹² in Syria’s west has dimmed the prospects¹³, always faint, of peace talks that were said to be in the offing in Geneva.

　　也许贾尔巴会说服沙特阿拉伯向其提供更多人道主义援助，但由于西方社会十分担忧受反叛军控制下的叙利亚部分地区中极端主义者数目激增，他不可能如此快速地得弄到先进武器来对付阿萨德的部队。叙利亚西部阿萨德控制下的人口最多的几个城市呈南北一线状；而正是他的严格控制使得即将在日内瓦召开的，原本就扑朔迷离的和平谈话的前景越加不明朗。

　　Meanwhile, the fighting opposition inside Syria is growing ever more fractious. Two rebels were reported to have been beheaded recently in Dana, a town in Idleb, a north-western province that is mainly in rebel hands, after they clashed with fighters from a rival group calling itself the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (“Greater Syria” in Arabic), which is tied to al-Qaeda. The group has been trying to make inroads into areas in the north that are held by more secular¹⁴ rebels. Mr Jarba has a tough task ahead.

　　同时，叙利亚境内的反对派武装力量还在不断失控中。有报道称，在由反叛军控制的叙利亚西北部的伊德利卜（Idleb）省达纳镇（Dana），两名反对者在与一支竞争组织发生冲突后被处以极刑，后者自称伊拉克伊斯兰国和al-Sham（阿拉伯语，“大叙利亚”），并与基地组织交往甚密。这个组织一直试图侵入叙利亚北部地区，而北部地区则为世俗反叛军所持有。贾尔巴还将面临严峻考验。

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