经济学人75:股票研究经济学

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　　股票研究经济学

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　　分析分析

　　The old model of stockmarket research is changing

　　股市研究的旧模式正在改变。

　　Sep 21st 2013 |From the print edition

　　EQUITY research is meant to benefit both providers and recipients². It ought to help investors⁴ to allocate⁵ money more profitably. And the banks that give their clients free access to research hope that it will help them generate revenues from equity trading. But neither party is much satisfied by the conventional model.

　　股票研究本应发行者和股东双双受益。应该帮助投资者更有利润的分配资金。为客户提供免费研究报告的银行希望这会帮助客户从股权交易中去的收益。但是双方对常规的模式都不满意。

　　Start with the banks. A fall in trading revenues makes the economics of providing research less attractive. Between 2009 and 2013, total equity-trading commissions paid to brokers⁶ fell from $13.9 billion to $9.3 billion in America, and from euros 4.2 billion ($5.6 billion) to euros 3 billion in Europe, according to Greenwich Associates, a consultancy. The rise of passive investing and the spread of algorithmic trading have both reduced margins⁷ and dampened demand for research produced by and for humans.

　　交易收入的下降使得经济学研究逐渐丧失吸引力。这从银行开始。根据咨询机构Greenwich Associates的数据，在2009年到2013年之间，在美国总股本交易中支付给经纪人的佣金从139亿美元跌到了93亿美元，欧洲则从42亿欧元跌到了30亿欧元。被动投资的兴起以及算法交易的扩张都使得研究资料的利润率下降，需求也有所放缓。

　　Nomura recently slashed⁸ its equity-research division to focus on its electronic-trading business, Instinet. Other banks are also cutting back. Global sell-side research budgets fell from a 2007 peak of $8.2 billion to just $4.8 billion in 2013, according to Frost Consulting. Sector⁹ coverage¹⁰ has contracted: banks now concentrate on large-cap sectors¹¹ like oil, where trading volumes and revenue potential are higher.

　　野村最近缩减了其股票研究部门，将注意力集中于电子交易公司Instinet。其他银行也正在削减研究部门。根据弗罗斯特咨询公司的数据，全球出售方的研究经费已经从2007年峰值的82亿美元降到了2013年的48亿美元。研究数据的行业覆盖率叶缩减了，银行现在集中在像原油等大宗商品行业，这些行业的交易量和收益潜力较高。

　　Work has been shovelled¹² to cheaper places to save cash. Much of Citigroup’s American equity coverage is now produced in Buffalo¹³, New York. Deutsche Bank and J.P. Morgan have sent research work as far afield as India. Low-value-added tasks like data-crunching are not the only jobs being shipped out, claims Marc Vollenweider at Evalueserve, an outsourcing specialist. This process has its limits, however: client meetings still wholly happen face to face.

　　工作都转移到了成本更低的地方以节省现金。花旗银行的美国股票报道现在在纽约的布法罗发出。德意志银行和JP摩根已经将研究工作转移到了印度。专业外包公司Evalueserve的Marc Vollenweider表示，不仅仅是像数据运算这些低附加值的任务被转移。但是，这个过程也有其局限性，客户会议仍然全部为面对面会议。

　　The attitude of asset managers is also hardening. With research expenses “bundled” into commissions for executing trades, brokers tend to flood their clients with research reports in order to try to grab a larger slice of trading revenues. Asset managers leave most of them unread. A survey by Britain’s CFA Society found that only 22% of its members thought this model best serves the interests of investors.

　　资产管理公司的态度也在变硬。随着研究经费“捆绑”到执行交易的佣金中，经纪人往往给他们客户提供大量的研究报告，以此在交易收益中获得更大的比例。资产管理公司的这些材料大都没读过。英国CFA协会进行的一项调查发现，只有22%的成员认为这种模式最符合投资者的利益。

　　Independent research outfits¹⁴ offer an alternative. Though small, their share of the “research vote”, an estimate of market share produced by Greenwich Associates, has grown since 2011. They are untainted by the conflicts of interest that bedevil banks offering research on clients, and that led to a 2003 settlement enforcing stricter separation of investment banking¹⁵ and research in America. In Europe “commission sharing agreements” have grown in popularity since they were introduced in 2003. These unbundle brokers’ commissions into costs for executing trades and costs for research, which clients can use to buy services from third parties.

　　独立研究团队是另一个选择。尽管规模很小，但是据Greenwich Associates的市场份额数据，他们的“研究选择”比例自2011年来有所增长。他们受到长期困扰银行给客户提供调查报告的利益冲突的影响，这导致了在2003年美国出台了针对投资银行和研究机构更严格的分离。在欧洲，“佣金分成协议”自从2003年引入以来，已经变得越来越流行。这些自由的经纪人的佣金用于执行交易和研究的花费，客户可以用来从第三方购买服务。

　　Independent providers do not have an answer to every problem: making research on smaller firms profitable is a perennial¹⁶ issue. But they do offer radically¹⁷ different services from the banks’ unimaginative valuation models. Bespoke¹⁸ services are in demand. Hedge funds now use research dollars to pay for ground surveillance on the progress of mining or oil projects in Africa, in order to value them better. Others take to the sky. RS Metrics, a satellite-intelligence provider, has reported strong demand from the financial sector for its aerial-imaging services. Some funds even hire former intelligence agents, from firms like Business Intelligence Advisors¹⁹, to test whether corporate²⁰ bosses are massaging²¹ the truth in investor³ meetings.

　　独立研究提供者不想回答所有问题：研究小公司获利是一个长期的问题。但是，他们确实提供区别于银行缺乏想象力的估值模型之外的完全不同的服务。定制服务是有需求的。现在，对冲基金运用研究资金支付非洲矿业或石油项目进展的地面监测，为了更好的对这些项目进行估值。其他采取空中监视。RS Metrics是一个卫星情报提供商，该公司表示金融公司对他们的空中成像服务需求强劲。一些基金甚至从类似商业情报顾问的公司雇佣了前情报人员考查公司老板们有没有在投资者会议上说实话。

　　Old-style research is not about to die. Big banks retain 56.2% of the “research vote” (smaller brokers take another large chunk). Bank bosses still value the support research analysts²² can give their profitable investment-banking and corporate-advisory businesses. But with budgets under pressure and competition growing, the market is becoming more efficient.

　　旧式研究不会消失。大银行的“研究选择”比例仍然在56.2%（稍小的经纪人占了剩下的比例）。银行老板仍人重视支持研究分析给自己投资银行和咨询公司业务带来利润。但是预算压力以及竞争的增加使得市场变得更有效率。

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