财富精英励志演讲 第142期:未来的路(17)
时间：2014-09-26 06:08:50
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（单词翻译）
We are at the end of an era, but we are not fully1 aware of it. The two forms of economic organization — State Capitalism2 and International Capitalism are in competition with each other. Neither of them is attractive. The Washington Consensus3 has failed. International Capitalism in its present form has proven itself inherently unstable4 because it lacks adequate regulation. It's also highly unjust because it favors the haves over the have-nots.
我们正处在一个时代的终结，只是这一点我们还没有充分意识到。两种经济组织形式——国家资本主义与国际资本主义在互相竞争，而两者都缺乏足够的吸引力。《华盛顿共识》已经失败，目前的国际资本主义由于缺乏足够的监管，内在的不稳定性已被显现。此外，它也很不公正，嫌贫爱富。
While the
prevailing5 multilateral system will try to reconstitute itself, China will expand on a
bilateral6 basis. China is, of course, part of the multilateral system but it does not occupy within that system a position that is commensurate with its current anticipated perspective strength; therefore its
participation7 in the international financial institutions is rather passive and its active expansion is likely to go through bilateral channel. For instance, China will complain about the role of the dollar and will promote the role of Special Drawing Rights but it is unlikely to allow the renminbi to become freely
convertible8 because that would destroy the
mechanism9 that has allowed the state to harvest the fruits of cheap Chinese
labor10 through an undervalued currency. China will continue to maintain capital controls but will establish bilateral clearing accounts denominated in renminbi with countries like Brazil. This will diminish the status of the dollar as the international currency without actually replacing it.
尽管目前的多边体系会力图实现自身的重组，但中国仍将积极地进一步拓展双边渠道。诚然，中国也是这个多边体系的一部分，但它目前在其中的地位与其国力是不相称的，因此它在国际金融机构的参与是较为被动的，它的积极发展很可能通过双边渠道进行。例如，中国会不满于美元的作用，并将促进“特别提款权”的作用，但它不太可能允许人民币自由兑换，因为这样会破坏现有机制。在目前的机制下，中国可以通过货币贬值从廉价劳动力中获利。中国将继续控制资本，但会同巴西等国建立以人民币为主导的双边清算账户。这样就会削弱美元作为国际货币的地位，而无需取代它。
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