人民币纳入SDR的障碍

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　　如果二、三十年后，各国央行和主权财富基金持有的外汇储备中相当大一部分是人民币计价资产，金融史学家在回首往事时，很可能将2015年视为拐点。

　　The International Monetary¹ Fund is engaged in a year-long review of the currency composition of its special drawing rights (SDR), with a final decision expected between November and early 2016. The currencies now included in the SDR “basket” are from the world’s most influential² economies: dollars, euros, yen³ and sterling⁴.

　　国际货币基金组织(IMF)正对特别提款权(SDR)的货币组成进行为期一年的评估，预计在今年11月至2016年初之间做出最终决定。现在被纳入SDR“篮子”的货币来自全球最具影响力的经济体，这四种货币是：美元、欧元、日元和英镑。

　　If the fund decides to add the renminbi to the SDR basket, it will amount to an assurance to global central banks by the world’s foremost financial technocrats⁵ that renminbi assets are safe.

　　如果IMF决定将人民币纳入SDR货币篮子，那就相当于是全球最有分量的金融技术官员向各国央行保证，人民币资产是安全的。

　　For China, inclusion in the SDR would symbolise the arrival of its currency on the world stage alongside those of the world’s richest countries. National leaders would see it as a formal recognition of China’s increased influence in the global economy and the reforms it has taken to integrate itself with the global financial system.

　　对中国而言，人民币纳入SDR将象征着本国货币登上世界舞台，和全球最富裕国家的货币跻身同一行列。国家领导人将会认为，这是对中国在全球经济中影响力上升以及中国融入全球金融体系的改革的正式认可。

　　“SDR inclusion could be interpreted as international recognition of China’s increased economic importance and role in global financial markets,” says Zhu Haibin, chief China economist⁶ at JPMorgan Chase.

　　摩根大通(JPMorgan)首席中国经济学家朱海斌表示：“将人民币纳入SDR可能被解读为，国际社会承认中国的经济重要性及其在全球金融市场中的地位上升。”

　　The practical impact of SDR inclusion is almost negligible. The IMF created SDRs in 1969 to respond to a global shortage in viable⁷ reserve assets under the Bretton Woods system of fixed⁸ exchange rates. But Bretton Woods collapsed⁹ less than a decade later and today various currencies not included in SDRs, such as the Swiss franc and Australian dollar, are also widely held as reserves.

　　将人民币纳入SDR的实际影响几乎可以忽略不计。IMF在1969年创造了SDR，目的是应对在固定汇率的布雷顿森林体系下全球可用储备资产匮乏的局面。但布雷顿森林体系之后不到十年就解体了，如今许多没有被纳入SDR的货币，比如瑞士法郎和澳元，也被普遍用作储备货币。

　　“While it appears to be a contentious¹⁰ issue, the Rmb’s inclusion in the SDR has little tangible¹¹ and immediate¹² economic benefit for China. The SDR is rarely used by the global financial markets and no country would manage foreign exchange reserves modelled by the SDR,” says Li-Gang Liu, chief greater China economist at Australia and New Zealand Banking¹³ Group.

　　澳新银行(ANZ Bank)大中华区经济研究总监刘利刚表示：“尽管这似乎是一个有争议的问题，但人民币纳入SDR基本上不会为中国带来切实和直接的经济利益。SDR很少在全球金融市场中使用，任何国家都不会管理基于SDR的外汇储备。”

　　But inclusion into this elite¹⁴ club would have real-world consequences. Every IMF member holds at least some SDRs. Thus, the inclusion of the renminbi would mean that these countries would suddenly be holding renminbi, albeit¹⁵ indirectly¹⁶. With that threshold crossed, central bank renminbi holdings could be poised¹⁷ to increase rapidly.

　　但人民币加入这一精英俱乐部将有现实意义。IMF所有成员国都至少持有一些SDR。因此，将人民币纳入SDR将意味着，这些国家将会突然开始持有人民币，尽管是间接地持有。随着跨过这个门槛，各国央行持有的人民币数量可能迅速增加。

　　Though there is no formal application process to join the SDR basket, China has clearly stated its desire to be included as a result of the five-yearly review now under way.

　　尽管还没有正式开始申请加入SDR，但中国已经明确表示，希望IMF在其正在进行的五年一次的评估中纳入人民币。

　　The two main criteria¹⁸ for a currency’s inclusion in the SDR basket is that the issuing country be a significant exporting nation and that the currency itself be “freely usable”.

　　将一种货币纳入SDR有两个主要标准：货币发行国必须是大型出口国，而且货币本身必须“可以自由使用”。

　　Wei Yao, China economist at Société Générale who assesses the renminbi’s chances of inclusion at about 50 per cent, says: “China, as the biggest exporter in the world, passes the first test with flying colours. It is more debatable whether the renminbi meets the second criterion.”

　　法国兴业银行(Société Générale)中国经济学家姚伟表示：“作为全球最大的出口国，中国完全符合第一个标准。更具争议性的是，人民币是否符合第二个标准。”姚伟认为人民币被纳入SDR的可能性在50%左右。

　　The main sticking point is Chinese capital controls, which severely¹⁹ restrict the ability to buy and sell renminbi for investment purposes. Progress on so-called capital-account convertibility²⁰ will be an important factor in the IMF’s decision.

　　主要症结在于中国的资本管制措施，这极大地限制了外资出于投资目的买卖人民币的能力。资本账户可兑换计划的进展将是影响IMF决定的一个重要因素。

　　The launch of the Shanghai-Hong Kong stock connect last November marked an important step towards allowing freer cross-border flows of renminbi — known as capital-account liberalisation. But the programme is still subject to a quota²¹ that caps foreign investment to a tiny fraction of overall market capitalisation.

　　去年11月推出的“沪港通”机制标志着中国向允许人民币更自由跨境流动（这被称为资本账户自由化）方向迈出了重要一步。但“沪港通”仍有配额限制，从而使得外国投资仅占中国股市整体市值的一小部分。

　　Access to the bond market is an even greater obstacle, as bonds are the favoured assets for central bank reserve managers. China took an important step towards free usability in July, however, when it announced that central banks and sovereign wealth funds no longer needed preapproval to buy into the domestic bond market. But non-official investors²² such as mutual²³ funds and individuals remain subject to quota and licensing²⁴ restrictions²⁵.

　　更大的障碍是债券市场的准入问题，因为债券是央行储备资产管理者青睐的资产。不过今年7月中国宣布，外国央行和主权财富基金进入中国债券市场不再需要经过预先批准，从而向人民币自由使用迈出了重要的一步。但共同基金和个人等非官方投资者依然需要取得配额和牌照。

　　“The announcement shows that the PBoC’s determination for capital-account liberalisation has not been deterred²⁶ by the stock market volatility²⁷...愠渀搀 that the central bank is still promoting the renminbi’s inclusion in the IMF’s SDR basket during its next review,” said Jianguang Shen, China economist at Mizuho Securities Asia.

　　瑞穗证券亚洲(Mizuho Securities Asia)的中国经济学家沈建光表示：“该声明表明，中国人民银行(PBoC)实现资本账户自由化的决心没有被股市波动吓阻……央行仍将推动IMF在其下次评估期间将人民币纳入SDR。”

　　The IMF has never adopted specific metrics to determine whether a currency is “freely usable”, giving the fund’s executive board considerable flexibility²⁸. However, unofficial IMF working papers suggest that the fund considers whether the renminbi is, in fact, widely used for financial transactions at least as important as what regulations appear to permit or forbid.

　　IMF从未就一国货币是否属于“自由使用”出台明确标准，从而给予其执行委员会极大的灵活性。然而，IMF的非正式工作报告表明，在IMF看来，人民币事实上是否广泛应用于金融交易，至少与监管法规看上去允许或禁止的内容一样重要。

　　“Capital-account convertibility is not a precondition for SDR inclusion. For instance, the yen was included in the SDR basket in 1973, but Japan liberalised international capital flows only in 1980.”

　　“资本账户可兑换不是纳入SDR的先决条件。例如，日元在1973年被纳入SDR，但日本在1980年才允许国际资本自由流动”。

　　In this regard, the fact that 60 central banks already hold renminbi among their reserves, according to Standard Chartered estimates, is likely to be viewed as an important indicator²⁹ of usability. But it remains³⁰ unclear how the IMF will interpret the fact that many of these central bank reserves are held in offshore³¹ renminbi assets, which are not subject to Chinese regulations.

　　就此而言，据渣打银行(Standard Chartered)估计，已经有60家央行在外汇储备中持有人民币，这可能被视为判断人民币使用的广泛程度的重要指标。但这些央行的人民币储备中有许多是离岸人民币资产——这些离岸人民币不受中国的监管——目前尚不清楚IMF对此怎么看。

　　Many obstacles remain to the currency being “freely usable”. Individuals are still subject to a $50,000 per year limit on converting renminbi to foreign currency and vice³² versa. China plans to roll out a pilot programme for individual outbound investment this year, but it will still be subject to quotas³³.

　　让人民币成为“自由使用”的货币依然存在许多障碍。个人将人民币兑换为外币依然存在每年5万美元的限制，反之亦然。中国计划在今年启动个人对外投资的试点项目，但仍会有配额的限制。

　　Ultimately, analysts³⁴ expect political considerations to play an important role. If the fund refuses entry to China, it could deepen the Chinese leadership’s distrust of institutions such as the IMF, World Bank and G20, which it already views as unfairly dominated by the west.

　　最终而言，分析师预计政治考量将是一个关键因素。如果IMF拒绝将人民币纳入SDR，就可能加深中国领导人对IMF、世界银行(World Bank)和20国集团(G20)等机构的不信任——中国已经认为西方在这些机构中不公平地占据着主导地位。

　　On the other hand, the US is likely to argue that the SDR is an important lever that can be used to incentivise China to quicken financial reform. IMF president Christine Lagarde has said that the renminbi’s inclusion is a “matter of when, not if”. That has led many observers to expect a compromise in which the fund will formally declare its intention to add the renminbi to the SDR — but only once deregulation proceeds a bit further.

　　另一方面，美国可能认为，SDR是可以用来刺激中国加快金融改革的重要工具。IMF总裁克里斯蒂娜拉加德(Christine Lagarde)表示，人民币纳入SDR是“何时纳入的问题、而非是否纳入的问题”。这让许多观察家预计将会出现妥协局面——IMF将会正式宣布打算将人民币纳入SDR，但前提是中国进一步解除管制。

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