阿里巴巴遇冷 亚马逊受宠 Amazon pops Alibaba drops

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　　杰夫贝佐斯(Jeff Bezos)可能正铆足了劲在西雅图四处活动，为他家的Fire Phone大声吆喝，并鼓励员工互相撕咬。

　　The Amazon founder¹ claims to be running a gentler company than his critics portray². But whatever he’s doing, investors³ like it a lot.

　　这位亚马逊(Amazon)创始人声称，他经营的公司没有批评者描述的那么冷酷。不过，不论他在做的是什么，都深得投资者的欢心。

　　There was great fanfare⁴ in July when Amazon’s market capitalisation surpassed Walmart’s. There was none on Monday when its enterprise value, which discounts cash and includes debt, rose to $251bn, overtaking the supermarket chain to become — for real this time — the world’s most valuable retailer⁵.

　　今年7月，当亚马逊市值超过沃尔玛(Walmart)时，曾引起巨大轰动。而周一的另一则消息却没有引起丝毫的波澜：亚马逊的企业价值（等于市值减去现金、加上债务）攀升至2510亿美元，超过了沃尔玛，成为全球（名副其实的）最有价值的零售商。

　　Earlier this year, its value overtook that of another company whose founder has magnetic appeal: Jack⁶ Ma’s Alibaba. Even though the Chinese ecommerce company enjoys superior revenue growth and fatter margins⁷, its value is sinking. The first anniversary of its initial public offering was on Friday. The shares are below the IPO price and half their high point.

　　今年早些时候，该公司的市值超过了另一家其创始人有着磁石般吸引力的公司：马云的阿里巴巴(Alibaba)。尽管这家中国电子商务企业拥有更高的营收增长率和更丰厚的利润率，它的市值却在不断缩水。上周五是阿里巴巴首次公开招股(IPO)一周年纪念日。该公司股价目前已低于发行价，只有其历史最高价的一半。

　　There are some good reasons for reappraising Alibaba, notably⁸ Chinese economic worries and the slowest revenue growth in three years recorded in August. Yet Alibaba’s return on invested capital is 8 per cent; Amazon’s is minus 3 per cent. Even at a slightly slower pace, Alibaba’s revenue is growing at 40 per cent against Amazon’s 17 per cent. It is Amazon, though, that now commands a premium⁹ valuation: its enterprise value is 20 times next year’s forecast earnings¹⁰ before interest, tax, depreciation¹¹ and amortisation compared with Alibaba at 19 times.

　　重新对阿里巴巴估值不乏充分理由，尤其是围绕中国经济的担忧，以及今年8月录得3年来最慢营收增长。不过，阿里巴巴的投入资本回报率(ROIC)是8%，亚马逊只有-3%。即便营收增速有所放缓，阿里巴巴目前的营收增速也有40%，而亚马逊的这个数字为17%。然而，如今享有估值溢价的却是亚马逊：该公司市值是明年预计息税折旧及摊销前利润(EBITDA)的20倍，而阿里巴巴的这一比例只有19倍。

　　The suspension of disbelief in Alibaba has been punctured¹². A lock-up expired on Monday, enabling large investors (including Mr Ma) to sell. They said they would not. The stock still fell 3 per cent. Its strange governance structure and the precarious¹³ ways in which value trickles¹⁴ to common stockholders are all part of the problem, yet they are nothing new.

　　对阿里巴巴一度中断的怀疑再度恢复。周一，阿里巴巴股票解除禁售，令包括马云在内的该公司大股东能够抛售手中的股票。这些投资者此前表示，他们不会卖。虽然如此，该公司股价仍下跌了3%。阿里巴巴奇特的治理结构，以及其企业价值缓慢回馈普通持股者的方式充满不确定性，都是其股票遇冷的原因，然而这些并不是新近才出现的问题。

　　The worry that Alibaba might disappoint has taken hold; the worry that Amazon might disappoint has — in spite of its lengthy¹⁵ record of doing precisely¹⁶ that — vanished.

　　对阿里巴巴可能令投资者失望的担忧已然扎根，对亚马逊可能令投资者失望的担忧却已经消失——尽管亚马逊长期以来恰恰在令投资者失望。

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