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OECD Says Oil Prices and Inflation Not Hurting Industrial Ec

时间：2005-05-24 16:00:00

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By Douglas Bakshian

A leading economic think-tank sees a strong recovery in the second half of the year for major industrial economies, in spite of high oil prices, and says inflation is not yet a concern.

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, in an interim1 report, says oil prices have so far had only a limited impact on core inflation and wages in the world's major economies.

Oil has recently traded around $46 a barrel - much higher than normal. However, Jean-Philipe Cotis, the chief economist2 for the OECD, told VOA that the impact of an oil price hike is a lot smaller today than it was 30 years ago during the first oil shock.

"Industrial economies are well equipped to deal with this uncertainty3. Although we would do a lot better without this uncertainty, in any case, they should be able to withstand this sort of perturbation in the future."

Mr. Cotis also says inflation is not yet a concern and governments will be able to allow interest rates to remain low.

"Inflation expectations have not moved a lot despite the small oil price shock we had. It means that price stability is well anchored in our economy and monetary4 policy will not have to tighten5 prematurely6."

The OECD has slightly lowered its 2004 forecast for economic growth in the United States to 4.3 percent, from 4.7 percent. However, in the 12-nation euro-zone the growth forecast has increased to two percent, and for Japan it has increased to 4.4 percent.

Mr. Cotis told VOA that all evidence indicates there will be a strong recovery in the second half of the year in the industrialized countries, to be followed by what he expects to be a robust7 expansion.

Douglas Bakshian for VOA news, Luxembourg.
注释：
think-tank 智囊团
inflation 通货膨胀
interim 临时的，中间的
barrel 桶
withstand 抵挡，经受住
monetary policy 货币政策
prematurely 过早地
robust 强势的，充沛的


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1 interim z5wxB     
adj.暂时的，临时的；n.间歇，过渡期间
参考例句：
  • The government is taking interim measures to help those in immediate need.政府正在采取临时措施帮助那些有立即需要的人。
  • It may turn out to be an interim technology.这可能只是个过渡技术。
2 economist AuhzVs     
n.经济学家，经济专家，节俭的人
参考例句：
  • He cast a professional economist's eyes on the problem.他以经济学行家的眼光审视这个问题。
  • He's an economist who thinks he knows all the answers.他是个经济学家，自以为什么都懂。
3 uncertainty NlFwK     
n.易变，靠不住，不确知，不确定的事物
参考例句：
  • Her comments will add to the uncertainty of the situation.她的批评将会使局势更加不稳定。
  • After six weeks of uncertainty,the strain was beginning to take its toll.6个星期的忐忑不安后，压力开始产生影响了。
4 monetary pEkxb     
adj.货币的，钱的；通货的；金融的；财政的
参考例句：
  • The monetary system of some countries used to be based on gold.过去有些国家的货币制度是金本位制的。
  • Education in the wilderness is not a matter of monetary means.荒凉地区的教育不是钱财问题。
5 tighten 9oYwI     
v.(使)变紧；(使)绷紧
参考例句：
  • Turn the screw to the right to tighten it.向右转动螺钉把它拧紧。
  • Some countries tighten monetary policy to avoid inflation.一些国家实行紧缩银根的货币政策，以避免通货膨胀。
6 prematurely nlMzW4     
adv.过早地，贸然地
参考例句：
  • She was born prematurely with poorly developed lungs. 她早产，肺部未发育健全。 来自《简明英汉词典》
  • His hair was prematurely white, but his busy eyebrows were still jet-black. 他的头发已经白了，不过两道浓眉还是乌黑乌黑的。 来自辞典例句
7 robust FXvx7     
adj.强壮的，强健的，粗野的，需要体力的，浓的
参考例句：
  • She is too tall and robust.她个子太高，身体太壮。
  • China wants to keep growth robust to reduce poverty and avoid job losses,AP commented.美联社评论道，中国希望保持经济强势增长，以减少贫困和失业状况。

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